[xzins]

The poll you've posted says that Pres. Bush is standing tall leading into the election. My sense is that he has an extremely consistent group of about 51% who have stood with him EVEN in the harder times. My theory is that the slug-fest election aftermath in Florida in 2000 absolutely solidified some folk's support for him. Then they had that support tested again by the events of 9/11, and then again at the start of the Iraq War. They haven't wavered since.

51% is impossible for the Dems to overcome.

[gimmealewinsky]

While you may be correct in the support solidifying, the opposite remains true as well. If you read or listen to those on the other side, they have a hatred and loathing for Bush I don't even think they held for Reagan. And THAT'S saying something.
This election, IMO, will break down about 45-45, with the soft 10% sealing the deal. It will be a close one, as all Presidential elections will be for the foreseeable future.
My guess this far out Bush 52%/ Dim 48.
Yea I know that's useless, but it's slow at work...