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Stranger things have happened, and given the increasing importance of money, he's got at least that as an advantage on everyone else. I doubt things like his name or his accent (James Earl Carter anyone?) will be big factors.

I'll tell you what will be the deciding factors, IMO:

1. Who will be the competition? If it's the likes of Kasic, he'll run, be nominated, and likely win (as it would take a really bad GOP effort to lose to Hillary).
I love John Kasic but he doesn't have anything like the visual media presence to carry the ticket - he's just doesn't have the genes (although he's ideal for a VP).
All of the other mentioned names just don't measure up.

Jeb isn't fool enough to run right as GW goes out;
Powell won't run and can't get nominated if he does;
Rudy can't get nominated and I don't think Barbour would duck a race against Rudy anyway;
Condi Rice would be an attractive candidate if she can get out of some of her previously stated positions such as pro-choice (and if she does she'd be far and away the best choice for VP);
Some other guys are very good but might come off as a bit green such as Watts, Lindsey Graham, etc.;
And except for George Allen, none of the other govorners have the national profile necessary;

So, the balance on this factor is favorable to a Barbour candidacy...all the competition is
a. unknown (other govorners)
b. too young or (Watts, Graham, et al)
c. too liberal (Guliani, Ridge, Powell, Rice?)
...with only a few exceptions.

2. Who will GWB endorse? He exibited very close ties with Haley in the Gov race, but he's also very close to Condy, and if Jeb insists on running he has to back him.
This, IMO, is THE factor. If Bush wins big in 2004 he's the gorilla in the room in terms of steering the 2008 nomination process...and name or no name, if Barbour can marry his contacts with Bush's (presumed) influance the nomination will be exceedingly hard to deny him.

OTOH, IF Bush's second term is quite unpopular, then Haley may chose to lay low - run for re-election in 2007 and let the GOP waste it's time on a "middle of the road" loser like Ridge and come back strong in 2012. The caveat here though, is that the GOP dare not conceed 2008 to Hillary...if they can't fdamage her before the 2008 cycle then, no matter how bad Bush might slip, they HAVE to take their best shot at her.

In any case, I'd like to see him run for re-election here (or hand pick a quality successor not named Amy Tuck) so that if for whatever reason he doesn't get the nomination, we're not stuck with some Bozo for 4 years because of his attempt.

Oh, and as an aside, Trent Lott DID look like a man on his way to the White House before he got to be Majority Leader. His flaws (which are noteable) were not nerely so well exposed until then.