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The Twisting Maze of Iranian Politics

January 14, 2004
Stratfor
Stratfor.com

Summary

Tensions between Iran's unelected traditionalist and elected modernist clerics have again risen, following the Guardians Council's disqualification of thousands of candidates from the February parliamentary elections. This crisis underscores a structural problem within the Iranian political system. The struggle between the two camps represents an evolution in Shiite political thought and could have widespread ramifications for Iran in its domestic and foreign affairs.

Analysis

On Jan. 12, Iran's Guardians Council, a powerful oversight body of conservative clerics, rejected 44.2 percent -- 3,605 of 8,157 -- of the candidates intending to run in the Feb. 20 parliamentary elections. This has split the Iranian leadership between the modernist camp, led by President Mohammed Khatami, and the traditionalists, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Those who openly have opposed the rejection include Khatami and most of his Cabinet, Parliamentary Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, numerous Parliamentary members and governors of several provinces. The crisis has reached the point that Khatami and his Cabinet are threatening resignation if the decision is not rescinded. Meanwhile, the leaders of the two camps have urged all Iranians to be patient. Khamenei has called for his loyalists to allow resolution through the country's legal system. Khatami has urged for his to let dialogue resolve the issue. The final resolution could pave the way for a balance-of-power shift in Iran.

Clearly, neither camp wants the political system to implode, but neither wants to be marginalized either. This power play is intertwined with their respective ideologies, which point to the fault line built into the Iranian political structure.

Iran's Islamist government is a peculiar and complex fusion between modern Shiite theocracy and Western parliamentary democracy. Iran's Shiite clergy has historically been close to the corridors of power even when not directly ruling. Its financial independence from the state and influence over the educational and legal systems since the 19th century gradually facilitated its rise to power. While the ulema (religious scholars) were in the process of positioning themselves in Iran, the country was undergoing a constitutionalist movement (1905- 1911) that sought to check the powers of the monarchy.

It was not until the late 1960s -- when the founder of Islamist Iran Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (1902-1989) led a movement against the then-monarch Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi -- that the Iranian ulema began to seek a more direct governing role. In a series of lectures, Khomeini argued that a true Islamic government is led by those knowledgeable about Islam, i.e. the clerics. These lectures were published in 1971 in book a book entitled Velayat-e-Faqih: Hukomat-i-Islami (State of the Jurist: Islamic Government).

Velayat-e-Faqih literally means state/government rule of the jurists. It is in essence a modern Shiite political system. But Khomeini was not the sole creator of the notion of Velayat-e- Faqih.

Shiites have always believed that Allah ordained that the Prophet Muhammad would be succeeded by divinely appointed imams who were his blood descendants. According to this belief, there were 12 such infallible imams:

Ali bin Abi Talib (660-661)
Hasan bin Ali (625-670)
Hussein bin Ali (626-680)
Ali Zayn al-Abideen (658-713)
Muhammad al-Baqir (677-733)
Jafar al-Sadiq (702-765)
Musa Al-Kadhim (746-799)
Ali al-Rida (765-818)
Muhammad al-Jawwad (811-835)
Ali Al-Hadi (827-868)
Hasan Al-Askaree (846-874)
Muhammad al-Mahdi (869-)

The 12th and last imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, is believed to have absented himself from the physical plane in ghaybat-i-sughra (lesser occultation) around the year 874. Seventy years after this lesser occultation, Shiites believe al-Mahdi went into a state of ghaybat al-kubrah (greater occultation) -- a deeper hidden state.

Due to the last imam's long absence, Shiite scholarship faced a lack of Islamic leadership, and a need for a wider interpretation of everyday issues in the light of Islamic law. This era also was also marked by debates between the 'akhbari' and 'usuli' schools of thought of Shiite scholarship. The former took the literal understanding of the divine texts (Koran & Sunnah) while the latter opted for a more general and broader understanding of them.

The eventual victory of the usuli position over that of the ikhbari within Shiite Islam came about around the middle of the 18th century under the leadership of Aqa Baqir Bihbihani (1706- 91), who paved the way for the formation of the concepts of Velayat-e Faqih (jurist's government) and Marjaa-i-Taqleed (locus of mass following). Both concepts were the result of further ijtihad (the juristic process of deriving rules for new situations from the Koran and Sunnah) on the Shiite doctrine of the divinely appointed Imamah. It was Mullah Ahmad Naraqi (1771- 1829), a student of Bihbihani, who actually formulated the theory of the jurist's government. The basis of Velayat-e Faqih is the appointment of a deputy of the imam who could administer certain aspects of governance until the imam returned. This deputy had to be a mujtahid (the scholar qualified to perform ijtihad) but a marjaa-i-taqleed (a senior mujtahid who has reached the level that he is to be emulated by laypeople). In the 20th century, it became fashionable to refer to such an individual as ayatollah (sign of Allah).

Ayatollah Khomeini and his allied clerics, in an effort to implement the Velayat-e-Faqih, heavily borrowed from parliamentary democratic theory. In the past 25 years, this system has evolved into a complex arrangement of elected and unelected clerics.

The Iranian electorate directly elects the president, who can serve up to two consecutive four-year terms. Theoretically, he is the second-highest ranking official and appoints his Cabinet.

Every four years, Iranians also elect the 290 members of the unicameral Majlis, or Parliament. This legislative body also has the power to summon and impeach ministers and presidents. However, the Guardians Council must give its approval to all legislative activity.

Iranians directly elect the 86 clerics in the Assembly of Experts, which appoints its Supreme Leader, oversees his performance and removes him if he is unable to execute his duties. The Guardians Council also screens the candidates who run for the assembly.

The Guardians Council is the most influential branch of the Iranian government. It comprises 12 clerics who serve six-year terms: Six are theologians appointed by the supreme leader and six are jurists nominated by the judiciary and approved by the Majlis The terms are on a phased basis -- half the council's membership changes every three years. The Guardians Council ensures that all legislative activity conforms to Islam. It also vets all candidates to parliament, the presidency and the Assembly of Experts.

At the apex of this system sits the supreme leader who, in addition to the six Guardians Council members, appoints the head of the judiciary, the commanders of all the armed forces, the Friday prayer leaders and the heads of radio and TV. He also confirms the election of the president.

The Expediency Council advises the supreme seader and is the final arbiter in legislative disputes between the parliament and the Guardians Council. The Supreme Leader appoints this council's members, who are prominent religious, social and political figures.

The Iranian judiciary defines legal policy, guarantees that Islamic law is enforced, and nominates six members to the Guardians Council.

Tensions arise in this maze of elected, quasi-elected and appointed figures between those whose power base is popular support and those who claim the divine as their power base. Both sides are driven by ideological and material interests and both sides invoke Islam when arguing their respective positions.

The modernist clerics and their nonclerical supporters want to reduce the power of the unelected clerics who overrule decisions of the executive and legislative branches. Conversely, traditionalist clerics say that the ulema are the only ones who can ensure that rulers act in accordance with Islam. A significant portion of the electorate sees clerics as incapable of political leadership.

What appears to be a fight over the meaning of an Islamic democracy is also about the political interests of the two groups. The clerics, who have enjoyed power for a quarter of a century, now believe they will be marginalized should the modernist camp emerge triumphant. Nonclerical aspirants to power cannot attain it if they do not measure up to Guardians Council standards.

Judging from previous crises, this current snarl will be overcome in some form of a compromise, but what that will entail is not apparent at this stage. However, the balance of power in the Iranian political system will shift in favor of one camp or the other.

http://iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news.pl?l=en&y=2004&m=01&d=15&a=2

TEHRAN 14 Jan. (IPS) Islamic Republic of Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameneh’i, in an effort to diffuse one of the regime’s worst political crisis, urged Wednesday the Council of the Guardians (CG) to review its decision to disqualify some of the candidates from running in the upcoming Legislative election on February 20.

In a meeting with the 12-members CG, half of them appointed by himself, Mr. Khameneh’i observed that since distinguishing the qualification has different stages, “we should not go far in confirming the qualification of the members of parliament", referring to the extreme criteria the Guardian Council has adopted so far in approving the credential of tens of leading reformist MMs (Members of the Majles) candidates.

“On the disqualifications by the Guardian Council of incumbent MPs, Ayatollah Khameneh’i said that those whose qualification has been approved so far should be re-confirmed, unless the contrary is proved”, the official news agency IRNA reported, as threats by President Mohammad Khatami to lead a mass resignation of MMs, government ministers and provincial governors “unless a hard line political watchdog backed down” was denied.

"We have to remain firm. If one day we are asked to leave, then we will all leave, together", the usually mild-mannered President had warned Tuesday an open Majlis session, adding "When it comes to the elections and defending people's rights, the president is firm and will not forget his oath".

"The Guardians Council has a good opportunity to review the cases with precision and conforming with the law", the state media that is directly controlled by the leader quoted Mr. Khameneh’i as telling members of the body.

Ayatollah Khameneh’i, who has the final say on all matters of state, said in the case of MMs who are currently sitting in parliament -- 83 of whom had been barred from re-election -- "if their aptitude was proved in the past, the principle is that they are still competent unless it can be proved otherwise".

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the Secretary of the CG that vets all candidates to all elections in the theocratic regime of Iran bowed to the leader’s demand, promised to “re-examine” the case of disqualified incumbent MMs, among them Dr. Mohammad Reza Khatami, the younger brother of the President who is both the first deputy-Speaker and leader of the leader of Islamic Iran Participation Front, the country’s largest political party and other outspoken reformist lawmakers of the 292-seat Parliament, confirming that the body has received complaints against the disqualification.

“This is a civilian coup, one that means changing the regime without military intervention”, Mr. Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Chairman of the National security and Foreign Affairs of the Majles, himself barred, described the CG’s decision.

To resist the decision, rejected lawmakers, joined by other confirmed deputies immediately staged a sit-in at the Majles and menaced of going on an endless hunger strike if the CG decision is upheld.

But contrary to the outrage the move has created in Iranian political circles and the importance it has received outside, the public has remained almost indifferent to what some commentators described as a “storm in a tea cup”.

"We hope ... the upcoming elections in Iran will be free", French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin told a news conference Wednesday in Manama at the end of a five-nation Persian Gulf tour.

"It seems to me to be essential, in the context of the relations of trust we want to maintain with this country, that they be such", he said, echoing a similar warning earlier in the week from European Union (news - web sites) foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

But Iranian commentators dismissed a comment by the French news agency AFP saying “A departure of the reformist government, elected with massive majorities in past polls, could plunge Iran and its blend of democracy and theocracy into political chaos and back into international isolation”.

“These people, including the president himself described outside as moderate, have been powerless or unwilling to carry out the reforms they had promised and suddenly, they contest what they rightly deserve”, Mrs. Nasrin Mahdavi, an Iranian journalist in Germany covering for the Persian service of the Voice of America told Iran Press service.

Other observers said by ordering the CG to approve the most prominent reformist MMs, Mr. Khameneh’i offers them the “most poisonous gift” by making them utterly unpopular.

Already divorced by the voters, mostly the young ones that make the majority of Iranian voters and the international community, the reformists, in order to regain their lost popularity inside and outside, make all this noise, oblivion of the fact if they are allowed to run for the next elections, they would add to their discredit with the public and if elected, they would be nothing than more pawns in a Majles controlled by the conservatives.

The Guardians Council is due to make a final ruling on the disqualifications at the end of the month, and a definitive list of candidates is due to be released around 12 February.

KHAMENEH’I ORDERED CG TO APPROVE REJECTED CANDIDATES

http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles_2004/Jan_04/iran_disqualified_14103.html

Note: A former leader of the Revolutionary Guards who recently defected and lives in the US said on Satellite TV that he's certain this was a ploy to get more people out on Feb 20th, he said that the regime has done many things like this before. He, himself, being a part of several of the schemes.