Report: N.America, Europe May Cool in Warmer World (say what?)

Reuters ^ | Thu, Jan 22, 2004 | Alister Doyle

[presidio9]

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Parts of Europe and North America could get drastically colder if warming Atlantic ocean currents are halted by a surprise side-effect of global warming, scientists said on Wednesday.

The possible shut-down of the Gulf Stream is one of several catastrophic changes -- ranging from collapses of fish stocks to more frequent forest fires -- that could be triggered by human activities, they said in a book launched in Sweden.

"In the worst case it (the Gulf Stream) could shut down... it might even happen this century," said Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. "This would trigger a regional cooling, but not an Ice Age."

Climate models indicated a surge of fresh water into the North Atlantic from a melting of northern glaciers caused by global warming could stop the current that sweeps warm waters from the Gulf of Mexico toward Europe.

"The Eastern coast of Canada and the United States would also be affected. This is sometimes wrongly perceived as a European problem by American politicians," he told Reuters.

He said the Gulf Stream had collapsed about 20 times in the past 100,000 years, most recently at the tail of the last Ice Age about 8,000 years ago after an abrupt melting of icecaps.

If the Gulf Stream stopped, average temperatures might fall by 5-10 Celsius (10-20F) in Scandinavia or by 3-4C in Germany.

By contrast, global warming, widely blamed on emissions of gases like carbon dioxide from cars and factories, is expected to raise global average temperatures by 1.4-5.8C by 2100.

The U.N. Kyoto Protocol (news - web sites) on limiting global warming hinges on Russia's yes or no. Moscow is undecided and President Vladimir Putin (news - web sites) said his country might benefit from warmer world weather, though a halt of Gulf Stream would make northwest Russia colder.

Rahmstorf's study was included in a new book, "Global Change and the Earth System: a planet under pressure," which looks at the impact of the surge in the human population to six billion people, ranging from stripped forests to rising temperatures.

"A major finding is that change will not be progressive. There will be abrupt changes and tipping points," said Will Steffen, executive director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program which issued the book based on work by 5,000 scientists.

"Never before have we seen the range of change or the rate of change at the same time," he told Reuters.

"You can get to a point where forests are too hot and too dry and sudden fires rip through them," he said, referring to blazes last year in nations from Australia to France. "Global warming (news - web sites) may make these events more frequent."

And another report indicated that fish stocks might not recover even if nations ban fishing. Depletion of cod stocks, for instance, lets smaller species flourish and these may prey on the young of any surviving cod and prevent stock recovery.

[Cicero]

The Gulf Stream could shut down. And Sweden could collapse from terminal silliness, too.

[SomeCallMeTim]

"about 8,000 years ago after an abrupt melting of icecaps."


WHAT?? This has all happened before? Who's fault was it then? Were the cavemen burning too much oil? I don't get it?

[leadpencil1]

I think this weekend I'll go out and shut the gulf stream down. Wanna come with me?

[katana]

There's ample evidence that the Gulf Stream has "shut down" a number of times in the past and that this is at least one of the things which precipitate an ice age. Nothing new except that it is being blamed on human activities, a conclusion which to any objective observer of the historic, geologic, and (non-computer model based) science seems more fanciful evey day. We are due, if not overdue, for the next in a very long series of ice ages. Our ancestors adapted and coped with the past ones and I expect our descendants will see the next one through as well.

[Tijeras_Slim]

Obligatory "We're All Doomed"

Thank you.

[Always Right]

The amazing thing about global warming, at least according to the chicken littles no matter where you are everything is worse. Places that get a lot of rain now, will get more with global warming. Places that are dry and hot, get dryer and hotter. Ect. In reality, most of the warming is occuring at night and climates are actually getting milder not wilder like the scare-models predict.

[Always Right]

WHAT?? This has all happened before? Who's fault was it then? Were the cavemen burning too much oil? I don't get it?

Just 15,000 years ago Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan were covered with glaciers. I am not sure who was driving SUV's back then, but THANK YOU!!!

[The_Reader_David]

Yes, it happened before. It's fairly clear to me that global warming is 1) real and 2) part of a natural climate cycle. The anti-development blame capitalism approach the the phenomenon is exactly the wrong one: we'll want as well developed an economy as possible so we can survive not just as a species but as a free and prosperous society if the glaciers come south again. (Last time they made it to Nebraska).

Incidentally, I like your screen name: my daughter named her car 'Tim' because if you point at things (in it) they explode.

[Paleo Conservative]

That's not fair. I bet he knows all the word to The Internationale.

[frithguild]

It's Bush's fault.

[catpuppy]

This is called "covering all the bases." No matter what the climate does, it will "prove" that global warming exists and is putting the world in grave danger. Maybe if we all hold hands, join Kyoto and vow to vote for Democrats it will all go away. Besides, Al Gore won ...

[presidio9]

ping

[Pylot]

He said the Gulf Stream had collapsed about 20 times in the past 100,000 years, most recently at the tail of the last Ice Age about 8,000 years ago after an abrupt melting of icecaps.

For centuries man, even stone age man, has tried to get rid of these dammnable SUV's. But after each polar ice cap melt, things get better again, man forgets the old cold days and goes back to his environment warming ways. Then the ice cap melts again..............

[AlexW]

I want some pinhead socialistic scientist on here to explain
a few things about this story.

If the Gulf Stream has shut down 20 times in the last 100,000 years, or about once every 5000 years, what has caused it? Dinosaur farts? If the last was about 8000 years ago, then we are overdue for another shutdown, no?

So, how will curbing the emissions from greedy capitalistic pigs, even 100%, prevent the next shutdown?

This STORY is a typical hit piece from the "Earth in the Lurch" crowd of 5000 young green scientist just out of college and well indoctrinated by their Marxist professors.

I guess the only bright spot in this stupid tome is that the blame is on Putin instead of Bush....

Good grief...bring me another glass of wine.

[yankeedame]

"about 8,000 years ago after an abrupt melting of icecaps."

LOL! Yeah, the caveman just walked out of his cave one morning, looked around and, startled, exclaimed: "What the h---?? Where'd...Where'd this lake come from? Where's all the ice caps? Wilma!"

[Petronski]

Incidentally, I like your screen name: my daughter named her car 'Tim' because if you point at things (in it) they explode.

That's funny.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Its an obvious question.

[sergeantdave]

Global Warming - eco-fascist noun; the art of untenured con-men scamming tax dollars so they can get stoned in their offices and find brainless college girls for one-night stands.

[uncbob]

Somebody out to asdk these globalm warming boobs what are they gonna do as billions of chinese ( who could care less about their BS) starting some major CONSUMING of fossil fuels