Is John Edwards surging?

Townhall.com ^ | January 26, 2004 | Robert Novak

[.cnI redruM]

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- From the moment Democratic presidential candidates arrived in New Hampshire from Iowa last Tuesday, an unanswered question has been whether the magic found by Sen. John Edwards in Midwestern prairies could be transported across the country. The process has been slow and uncertain, but the answer still could be "yes."

Sen. John Kerry, the decisive Iowa winner, appears headed for another clear victory Tuesday in New Hampshire. Polling indicates former front-runner Howard Dean’s free fall has been arrested, perhaps enough to finish second. Wesley Clark has lost momentum, particularly after a disastrous performance in Thursday night’s final debate. Sen. Joe Lieberman may get into double digits. That leaves Edwards, starting the week in single digits and no better than fourth here, but moving up a little.

Pollster Frank Luntz believes Edwards has "perfect pitch" with today’s Democrat, bashing George W. Bush and painting a grim picture of life in America while holding out hope. Luntz’s focus groups reflect switching from Dean to Edwards. In bygone days when weeks separated voting in Iowa and New Hampshire, Edwards would have had a chance to actually win here. With only a seven-day interim now, and Edwards dividing his time campaigning for the Feb. 3 primary in South Carolina, he still hopes for a second-place finish enabling him to challenge Kerry’s nomination in coming primaries.

Kerry and Edwards disagree on nothing. Indeed, all the leading candidates except Lieberman agree on policy and even what policies they talk about. For prudential reasons, gun control goes unmentioned and abortion is seldom mentioned. The theme is redistribution of wealth in America, and multi-millionaire trial lawyer Edwards propounds it most effectively with his concept of "two Americas."

Edwards talks about two school systems, two tax systems, two economies and two governments -- historic Democratic populism. At the state party dinner in Nashua Saturday night where candidates were restricted to seven minutes each, Edwards barely mentioned Iraq. His "perfect pitch" is telling Democrats how terrible life in America is but promising "the change we all want. Yes, we will! We can do it!"

Fresh from his Iowa victory, Kerry’s events here have been risk-free and symbolic, protecting his suddenly acquired New Hampshire lead. The theme at a Friday rally was support from veterans, a key component in winning Iowa. On Saturday afternoon, the gaunt 60-year-old skated with former Boston Bruin stars in a hockey exhibition and even scored a goal. The only mishap in the carefully scripted performance came at the veterans rally when the irrepressible Sen. Ernest F. Hollings of South Carolina, brought in as a Kerry backer, referred to Vice President Dick Cheney as "the Republican Party’s Jesse Jackson." Hollings was hustled back to Washington.

It was a difficult week for Dean, who never was able to adequately explain his rant and roar in Des Moines last Monday night. At Saturday night’s party dinner, he was still trying lame humor. "I’m so excited to be here," Dean said, "that I could just scream. (Pause, amid restrained audience laughter.) But I won’t." New Hampshire is such a good state for the former governor of neighboring Vermont that his slide here has not been as pronounced as his national decline.

Actually, Clark has fallen in New Hampshire much more sharply than Dean, losing half his former strength according to polls. The retired four-star general has been able to ingest and disgorge liberal dogma, displaying skills used in finishing first in his West Point class. He has made himself into an effective stump speaker but commits the amateur orator’s mistake of shouting. With his voice nearly gone, he disappointed a big crowd at Derry Friday night by not taking questions. Considering his dreadful performance at the Thursday debate, Clark’s managers want to avoid impromptu speech.

A retired couple I talked to at Derry were not impressed by the general. Registered independents, they voted for John McCain in the 2000 Republican primary and Al Gore in November. They told me they were first attracted to Dean, then put off by his erratic behavior, and now lean toward Kerry. But they indicated fascination with John Edwards and wanted to see him again before voting Tuesday. Such voters can determine the Southerner’s fate in New Hampshire and shape his future elsewhere.

[.cnI redruM]

Deadwards is predictable. He is plastic. He will get old in a hurry. Populism on the Left is no more intelligent or workable than populism on the Right. Deadwards will continue to live up to the moniker I have assigned to him.

[Cicero]

The story about the retired couple is typical. They are attracted to a candidate they don't know much about, and then when they learn more they are turned off. Edwards could profit for a while from people who find him young and attractive, like his public speaking style, and are persuaded by his plastic message. Then, if and when they learn more, they'll figure out he's a fake and get turned off. It's not easy to be a blow-dried multimillionaire trial lawyer who speaks for the poor.

That's why so many of these midgets have had moments in the sun, but then as soon as the press concentrates on them as "front runners," they fade.

[Chi-townChief]

This comment is choice:

"The only mishap in the carefully scripted performance came at the veterans rally when the irrepressible Sen. Ernest F. Hollings of South Carolina, brought in as a Kerry backer, referred to Vice President Dick Cheney as "the Republican Party’s Jesse Jackson." Hollings was hustled back to Washington."

[Lee'sGhost]

"Deadwards will continue to live up to the moniker I have assigned to him."

You grossly underestimate the shallowness of the left and their penchat for picking candidates based on their looks rather than their positions.

[southernnorthcarolina]

The theme is redistribution of wealth in America, and multi-millionaire trial lawyer Edwards propounds it most effectively with his concept of "two Americas."

Get ir right, Novak. It isn't "multi-millionaire trial lawyer." It's "multi-millionaire personal injury, ambulance-chasing, sue-whoever-has-deep-pockets, I-get-33%-of-the-jury's-award, pond scum trial lawyer."

[.cnI redruM]

Yes, Deadwards has an uncanny ability to make the masses feel morally entitled to the property of other people.

[southernnorthcarolina]

The only mishap in the carefully scripted performance came at the veterans rally when the irrepressible Sen. Ernest F. Hollings of South Carolina, brought in as a Kerry backer, referred to Vice President Dick Cheney as "the Republican Party’s Jesse Jackson." Hollings was hustled back to Washington.

"Ah say, Ah say, Ah must have said something wrong..."

[gitmo]

You grossly underestimate the shallowness of the left and their penchat for picking candidates based on their looks rather than their positions.

I agree. I hold out hope that Edward's lack of political experience will cause him to run aground. I never understood how he defeated Lauch Faircloth.

[.cnI redruM]

Ernest Hollings can't make it to dry-dock fast enough. I love him. He should never quit regaling us with his vim, his wit and his wisdom.

[Lee'sGhost]

"I never understood how he defeated Lauch Faircloth."

Because LF was a typical country club Repub with little imagination and a sense of entitlement. Plus, the people he had running his campaign were all wrong -- but fit his style to a T.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

Also the clintons were backing Edwards because Faircloth had opposed them. I suspect Edwards is really running for VP - relatively young, "good looking", southern, refusing to attack the other candidates.

[Lee'sGhost]

Yes and no. I think his core strategy is to be VP on somebody's ticket -- probably Hitlary's as I've said for more than two years now. But make no mistake, his ego dictates that he is doing some serious fantasizing about being the next Bill Klinton. Recent polls showing that he is a contender in places he wasn't supposed to be will kick those fantasies into overdrive. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that right now he totally believes he can be the next POTUS.

[gitmo]

I didn't see Lauch that way. His stands in the Senate seemed courageous and well thought out. I was looking to Lauch to be Jesse Helm's replacement.

[.cnI redruM]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

These guys have Deadwards in 3rd.

[JohnnyZ]

I hold out hope that Edward's lack of political experience will cause him to run aground. I never understood how he defeated Lauch Faircloth.

Edwards went before jury after jury and said, "Give my client millions of dollars" -- and they did.

Edwards went before North Carolina Democrats and said, "So what if I've never done anything for the Party, give me the nomination for U.S. Senate" -- and they gave it to him.

Edwards went before the people of North Carolina and said, "Don't mind that I'm a liberal trial lawyer in a conservative state, I'm pretty, elect me to the U.S. Senate over an incumbent" -- and they did.

Is there any wonder he thinks he can get the presidential nomination and win the presidency? And is it any wonder many are scared he'll do just that?

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

No argument - makes sense you can have plan A and plan B, and you can craft your strategy so that you're always advancing both plans.

Also agree psychologically - I bet in these campaigns their staff is kissing their rear ends 18 hours a day and they hear the roar of the crowd the rest of the time. Between the boot lickers in the war rooms and the adoring crowds, I wouldn't be at all surpised if Edwards hears "hail to the chief" in his head 15 times a day.

[Aegedius]

I never understood how he defeated Lauch Faircloth.

He won office the old fashioned way. He lied.

He assured voters that he was a moderate, and would vote much of the time with Jesse Helms.

[Lee'sGhost]

Really?! I guess you didn't hear about this. The source is a enviro site, but the facts jive with what I remember. Not a brilliant plan to so totally dis environmental regulations on one hand and contribute to pollution on the other. I also seem to recall him attempting to dodge responsibility at the time, but I don't think it's worth tracking down, this is damning enough.

---

Another guilty party, Senator Lauch Faircloth from North Carolina, seems to have something in common with our local "Big Sugar": self interest. Faircloth actually voted against the renewal of the Safe Drinking Water Act, which makes allowance for smaller communities to know about toxins in their water. This is pretty terrible, taking into account that North Carolina had almost 800,000 people before that vote whose water was deemed unacceptable for drinking purposes.

Another interesting fact, Faircloth has hog farms, which are endangering North Carolina's waters. A Senator who was fined for spilling 81,500 gallons of potato sludge and responsible for killing at least 6100 fish? This does not shine too favorable on Senator Lauch. The spill that Faircloth caused covered 25 miles of clean and healthy creek and river water. He, on top of all this, even established a legislative bill that would wipe out 88% of North Carolina's WetLands. This would have actually only helped Lauch anyway, seeing as how it property holding's values would undoubtedly soar.

[gitmo]

I remember the flack over Lauch's farms. But as I recall there was record-breaking rain that flooded the holding ponds. The ponds normally held the animal waste. I don't see how hog-shi* makes Lauch a country-club Republican.

[Lee'sGhost]

Point taken, but I think you're missing my point. His environmental positions looked extreme, they also appeared to be positions that would benefit him financially, and on top of it all he was actually polluting the environment. I'm not an environmental whacko -- indeed, my concern isn't with the enviro aspects of this anecdote, but rather his appearance of being a fat cat businessman manipulating the political system for his own profit AND to the detriment of public and private property. He may have made some "brave" stands in Congress, but whatever they were they paled in comparison.