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I think it begins today. I think that they possibly already spread some bio around- a week or so ago- and that they were anticipating their "cave of darkness" operation. Hopefully we stopped them. That we are continuing to prepare for wmd attacks tells me that we are not certain that we can eliminate their threats.

SHIPWRECK BLOCKS KEY MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL

By BRETT MARTEL

The Associated Press - 2/23/2004, 3:57 p.m. ET

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Scores of freighters were stopped cold and thousands of cruise ship passengers were stuck in New Orleans on Monday because of a shipwreck blocking the main channel of the Mississippi River.

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/national/index.ssf?/base/national-18/107755344762210.xml

Let's assume the OBL/Iran and 30 nuke thing is true. (And, I use the Assume word in the same sense that Felix Unger once did -- when you Assume, you make an ass of U and me.).

If this was all true, it would be the ONLY credible explanation for holding bin Laden for this long, without disclosure. That is, we have a fear of wmd retaliation in the U.S.

Frankly, there would be no other political reason reason, nor would any operational reason exist to hold him this long. Surely he is not cooperating, and use of any intel found with him would be quick. (We would also have to be careful about using too much so as to tip AQ off that we have him). Looking at the political question, Bush would benefit from letting the country know we have him. And, the longer we have him without releasing the info, opens the President to charges of politicizing the issue.

IMHO -- I don't think we have him, if only because the secret could not be kept this well, for this long.

But, the nuclear blackmail question is, if nothing else, very interesting.