Latest PresidentElect 2004 Electoral Vote Analysis-- Bush 286, Kerry 252

PresidentElect.org ^ | 2/10/04 | WoodlandsTXFreeper

[WoodlandsTXFreeper]

Article can be found at http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html

President Elect 2004 Electoral College Analysis (2/10/2004)

President Elect's fifth analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George W. Bush against the probable Democratic nominee, John Kerry, shows that if the election were today Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term. President Elect predicts that President Bush would win 286 electoral votes and Kerry would win 252 (Down from 307-231 in September).

For several months of there has been continuous coverage of the Democratic caucuses and primaries, with little coverage of Republican re-election efforts. As expected, the Democratic nominee's poll numbers have started to reflect the bounce historically received by the party getting the lion's share of the coverage when the incumbent does not have to campaign to win his party's nomination.

However, Kerry's support is strengthening because rank and file Democrats have been yearning to get behind a single person who would lead the charge against Bush. The SOLID KERRY states are solidifying behind him, while the LEANING BUSH and LEANING KERRY states are moving more in that direction.

In our last analysis, one of Bush's problems was that his LEANING states weren't traditionally Republican friendly. With Massachusetts Senator Kerry as the probable Democratic nominee that problem may even out. He may lose LEANING states north of the Mason-Dixon Line but those south of it will start leaning back Bush's way.

This analysis is just a starting point, since it is the first to seriously consider Kerry as the nominee. Now that President Elect 2004 is in full swing, we will update this analysis every other month until summer when updates will come more often.

BTW - for those curious: This analysis was delayed in the hopes that a Democratic frontrunner would emerge so we wouldn't have to guess or do another generic assessment. However, just to be ready, preliminary analyses were done of several other candidates. For curiosity's sake, here are how those prelim numbers were looking.

BUSH: ~273 EDWARDS: ~265

BUSH:~302 DEAN~236

BUSH:~320 CLARK:~218

[WoodlandsTXFreeper]

After all the media bashing, I was really holding my breath for this analysis. It's still very early, but it's good to see W's lead still holding up. But it's time to take the gloves off!!

[Rokke]

Out of curiosity, what is the record of this organization. I've never heard of it before.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

This is good news, considering the Dem's have had the lead news story for the last 90 days...

[sharktrager]

You know, I am starting to wonder if the dems haven't developed a strategy where they keep other contenders in the race even though they can't win. That makes it hard for Bush to attack Kerry and look Presidential. Where Kerry can "do what the frontrunner does" and go after Bush.

It puts the pubbies on the defensive and essentially allows Kerry to campaign for November several months before Bush can.

[NeoCaveman]

[xrp]

It puts the pubbies on the defensive and essentially allows Kerry to campaign for November several months before Bush can.

Not if Bush focuses on what HE is doing/will be doing for the nation. He can compare and contrast later.

[The Wizard]

true enough, and I am still a believer that once Kerry gets under the microscope, he's goping to look pretty bad

[IndyTiger]

Thanks for the graphic. It shows that this election will be won or lost in the Great Lakes states.

[GiveEmDubya]

Make that 290 for Bush. I don't care that Kerry is next door, I don't think he's winning New Hampshire, especially after the disaster the Dems had there in 2002. The Republicans there have the Governorship, a veto-proof legislature, and all four congressional seats.

[NeoCaveman]

Thanks for the graphic. It shows that this election will be won or lost in the Great Lakes states.

Only ten "leaning" states out of 50 and 7 of them (relatively) near eachother.....

[WoodlandsTXFreeper]

Rokke, until 2 months ago,I had never heard of it either. From what I can tell, though, the web site has been around since 1999. I cannot vouch for its reliability, but my gut tells me it's at least halfway reliable.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Nah, the Republicans might be able to try that tactic, but the Democrats are cash hungry. Wasting money in a feint would be suicidal.

The fact that California has a Republican Governor is giving them heartburn thinking of the LA and San Diego media markets they will have to cover.

The fact that New York has a Republican Governor, NYC has a fondness for the cowboy from Texas after 9/11, and the Republicans are pitching their tent for the convention there is summer has the Democrats looking for acid reflux relief. New York will cost them plenty to keep in the solid Dem column.

Then count in the close Rust Belt states from last time, and they have to be very frugal just to keep National ads on through the first week of November.

No, they don't have the resources to try a rope-a-dope, not this year.

[BCrago66]

Who are these people? They don't say that their analysis is based upon local polling; they don't say what their analysis is based upon. Thus far, all we have is a blog with a picture of a map.

[NeoCaveman]

It shows that this election will be won or lost in the Great Lakes states.

Home of blue collar Reagan Dems.

Run against gun control (no AWB) and against gay marraige and it would be in the bag.

I wonder if Karl Rove lurks?

I'm guessing not!

[WoodlandsTXFreeper]

Yeah, I agree -- it'd be good to see some more details about their polling techniques!!

[Dan from Michigan]

Rust belt has decided the election since the 80's. Reagan kicked butt here, GHWB won solid there as did Klinton, and Gore/Bush split the area(Ohio, West VA, Missouri to Bush, Penn, Wisconsin, and Mich to Gore)

Bush can't mess up on social issues, and he needs to hit Kerry BAD on his NAFTA, GATT, and MFN votes, as well as his hostility for the auto industry. At least make them equally bad on those issues since Bush can't beat Kerry.

[Dan from Michigan]

Beat Kerry on that issue.

[GiveEmDubya]

The media and the Democrats can have the biggest collective orgasm in the history of humanity, it still doesn't change the fact that when all is said and done, Bush is in a better position than when he won 4 years ago.

Why?

* He's the incumbent president
* There is more Republican control in this country than 4 years ago.
* The Democrats' last election cycle, 2002, was a disaster for them. They had pathetic nights in Minnesota (Key state), Florida (Key state), New Hampshire (Key state), and Georgia, to name a few. They lost the Senate and fell basically out of range to take back the House for at least another cycle or two. In addition, Arnold terminated Grayout decisively in the most populous state in the union, and will no doubt be a help to Bush.
* Bush seems to be enveloped in some kind of Teflon. Why, with all the whining about AWOL and WMD and other items, John Kerry should have a pretty big advantage right now. He peaked, for about a week, then fell behind Bush again. Bush has not even campaigned yet and John Kerry has more dirt to be found than a topsoil warehouse.

Bush has to do some things for his base though, and come out swinging hard, and he should be fine.

[taxcontrol]

I'm all for a constitutional amendment that provides that the person who receives the most votes within a congressional district receives the vote of that district.

The two additional electoral college votes for the state are given to the candidate who received the most votes from that state.

The candidate that receives a majority of electoral votes is President. If there is no majority of electoral votes, then the candidate who received the most electoral votes wins.

If there is a tie, the candidate who won the most congressional districts wins. If still tied, the candidate that received the most state electoral votes wins.

[RockDoc]

Kerry will NEVER have a chance to win this electon. The Clintons will not allow it. A Kerry win will end Hillary's quest for a return to the White House. Watch for a lot of dirt leaking out on Kerry as we get close to the election.