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Market Wrap-Up (2/18/2003)
FSO ^ | 2/18/2004 | Scott Middleton

Posted on 02/18/2004 3:59:36 PM PST by Orangedog

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Today's WrapUp by Scott Middleton 02.18.2004  Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Archive

Pause for Stocks

The Nasdaq fell marginally in an uneventful session where it traded in a tight range of 16 points, and spent most of the session just below the flat line with only occasional half-hearted sprints into positive territory. Investors pondered new data on the housing market as construction of new U.S. houses fell by about 8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.90 million in January, according to Commerce Department estimates. The performance is the lowest rate since August, following the 20-year high of 2.07 million established in December.

Corporate Earnings reports continued to roll in as Applied Materials reported net income of $82 million, or 5 cents a share, on revenue of $1.56 billion. During the same quarter last year, Applied Materials lost $66 million, or 4 cents a share, on revenue of $1.05 billion. Excluding $167 million for restructuring charges, Applied Materials earned 12 cents a share, 4 cents better than analysts expected. Also, analysts had expected sales of $1.32 billion. The chip-equipment maker had predicted at the start of its first quarter earnings of 6 to 8 cents a share, not counting one-time charges, on sales of $1.28 billion to $1.3 billion. Applied Materials had predicted charges between $75 million and $125 million related to previously announced cost cuts. The surplus charges came from a laboratory that Applied was planning on utilizing in the future, but the company decided to close it. New orders rose 32 percent sequentially to $1.68 billion compared with the company's target order growth of 20 percent. Applied Material's backlog grew to $2.63 billion compared with $2.35 billion in the previous quarter. For its second quarter, Applied Materials expects sequential order growth of 30 percent, sales of $1.87 billion, and earnings between 17 and 19 cents a share. Analysts had expected, prior to Wednesday, sales of $1.48 billion and earnings of 11 cents a share on average, according to Reuters Research.

In a blow to IBM, a federal judge has ruled that IBM Corp. owes back payments - possibly worth billions of dollars - to 140,000 older employees who were harmed when the technology giant converted to a new kind of pension plan in the 1990s. The plaintiffs in the case want IBM to make up for what they lost after the company adopted a "cash balance" pension plan, which pays workers a lump sum when they leave the company. A federal judge had ruled last July that the plan amounted to age discrimination because it unfairly penalized older employees. The case is being closely watched because IBM was one of several companies that adopted cash balance plans in the '90s.

Financial Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off roughly 43 points, or 0.4 percent, to finish at 10,672, while the Nasdaq Composite fell about 4 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,076.47. The S&P 500 index slid 0.4 percent to 1,151.82 and the small-cap Russell 2000 lost 0.5 percent to 591.48. Overall, losers trounced winners 20 to 13 on the New York Stock Exchange, and 19 to 13 on the Nasdaq. Volume on the Big Board reached 1.36 billion, while 1.77 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq.

April gold fell $3.70 to close at $412.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after gaining $5.70 an ounce in the previous session. Crude futures close above $35 per barrel as traders kept watch on OPEC for any signs of following through on a promise to curb production. The U.S. dollar rebounded to post gains after hitting an all-time low against the euro. The move came as China's central bank denied reports that it would revalue the yuan, and European officials indicated that further euro gains were unwanted.

Treasuries

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was off 2/32 at 99 19/32 to yield 4.05 percent, up from 4.04 percent at the Tuesday close. The yield flirted with 4 percent for much of the morning. It hasn't closed below 4 percent since January 15. The 30-year bond was flat at 106 28/32, yielding 4.91. The 2-year note dipped 1/32 at 100 12/32, yielding 1.68 percent. The 5-year note sank 2/32 at 100 6/32, yielding 3.02 percent.

European Markets

The euro rose to a record high on the dollar for the second time in 2004 as it topped $1.29 overnight. The market's confidence that European officials are more reluctant to intervene than their Japanese counterparts remains. The common currency pulled back to $1.28 in afternoon trade. The German DAX Xetra 30 index ended down 0.52 points at 4,095. The French CAC 40 index rose 0.1 percent at 3,709. London stocks were weaker as drug and banking shares declined.

Asian Markets

The Nikkei 225 Average ended down 24 points, or 0.2 percent to 10,676.81. The broader Topix index fell 1 point, or 0.2 percent to 1,052.98. The Nikkei initially touched a high of 10,798, but gradually erased gains by the close amid worries over the strong yen and the continued deflation, analysts said.

Scott Middleton

© 2004 Scott Middleton
February 18, 2004

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TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: wrapup

1 posted on 02/18/2004 3:59:37 PM PST by Orangedog
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To: Tauzero; imawit; Dukie; Moonman62; Free Vulcan; Wyatt's Torch; Huck; ken5050; razorback-bert; ...
Ping!
2 posted on 02/18/2004 4:01:13 PM PST by Orangedog (An optimist is someone who tells you to 'cheer up' when things are going his way)
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To: Orangedog
Intyeresting bit about the IBM pension plan lawsuit. My company did the same thing, and I ended up with only 26 years of pension service instead of 35. I did get a cash balance fund, but it pales in comparison to what I would have received as a pension.
3 posted on 02/18/2004 4:13:08 PM PST by RandyRep
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To: Orangedog
Short and Sweet Scott. But what happened is not news. Where's the insider or samesider stuff.

Bullion went back to Friday's close and is now taking off again. Guess they wanted to back up and give their buddies a chance to jump on who were not quick enough on Tuesday. Or, they have set up to ring every penny they can get by keeping the trading in a band. Buy at $410, sell above $416, come back again and do it again tomorrow.

Guess buy and hold is not the chant at the moment.
4 posted on 02/18/2004 4:46:11 PM PST by imawit (guess there are witless people out there after all)
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To: RandyRep
I sent in the paperwork to cash mine out from my previous employer. I was only there 6 years, so it's not a staggering amount of money and just under the limit they had set to keep it there so I had to take it. But still, I want it out of their system. Too much monkey business going on with pension funding rules. I'll feel better about it being converted to gold eagles and hidden in my matress than sitting in a pension fund of a company that will end up in chapter 11 by this time next year.
5 posted on 02/18/2004 5:33:05 PM PST by Orangedog (An optimist is someone who tells you to 'cheer up' when things are going his way)
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To: imawit
ECB putting on a brave front about not lowering rates. Things are slowing down world-wide...they'll almost have to lower this year.
6 posted on 02/18/2004 5:35:58 PM PST by Orangedog (An optimist is someone who tells you to 'cheer up' when things are going his way)
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To: imawit; Orangedog
Guess buy and hold is not the chant at the moment.

Buy and hold is better than what a lot of people do-- buy after everyone else is in, sell at the crash, and blame the losses on nefarious 'insiders'.  In fact, over the past century B&H did better than cash for any 10-year span. 

OTOH there's are a lot of other strategies that can do better.   Personally, I've been happy with sort of a 'modified CANSLIM'-- screening, timing, --it's done a lot better over say, any 3 month span than the indexes. 

7 posted on 02/18/2004 5:53:27 PM PST by expat_panama
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To: Orangedog
They're hangin in there wanting to be 'THE' currency world wide. Also trying to save face with the ECB agreement.

The whole economic system world wide is a game of chicken and who's going to be left standing and wind up with the prize.
8 posted on 02/18/2004 6:06:30 PM PST by imawit
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To: expat_panama
'modified CANSLIM

Yup, buy low sell high works. It's a real mother getting the timing right.

9 posted on 02/18/2004 6:10:09 PM PST by imawit
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To: expat_panama
In fact, over the past century B&H did better than cash for any 10-year span.

The people who bought the DJI in 1930 and held until 1939 as well as the ones who bought in 1970 and held until 1979 might take exception with that statement. ;)

10 posted on 02/18/2004 6:39:17 PM PST by Orangedog (An optimist is someone who tells you to 'cheer up' when things are going his way)
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To: imawit
They're hangin in there wanting to be 'THE' currency world wide.

Dollar/Euro, Hertz/Avis, Atari/Intellivision

11 posted on 02/18/2004 7:10:06 PM PST by Orangedog (An optimist is someone who tells you to 'cheer up' when things are going his way)
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To: Orangedog
Yeah, it ain't exactly saying much is it, seeing as cash depreciates.
12 posted on 02/18/2004 9:48:00 PM PST by Tauzero
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To: Orangedog
The people who bought the DJI in 1930 and held until 1939 as well as the ones who bought in 1970 and held until 1979 might take exception with that statement. ;)

People take exception for lots of things, but the one thing that wouldn't complain about is financial loss.  When you compare an investment in stocks to a straight interest account, you also need to remember stock dividends and inflation. During the '30's we had deflation, and record high stock dividends.  So even if you invested in '29, you'd have shown a profit just seven years later. 

Of course you could argue that you'd be worse off if you invested at the exact high in July 1929, and what about commissions, and taxes, and what if that $100,000,000 falls on you and crushes you! 

13 posted on 02/19/2004 7:19:01 AM PST by expat_panama
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