One other point which is a bit more "concrete" than the previous two - Wall Street knows much more about all this than I do. Yet the market has skyrocketed over the past year, even though job creation acc to Payrolls has been lagging. I realize profits is a big driver of the market, but overall economic factors are paid close attention to. I think the big players would be much more cautious with their investments were the economic factors reflecting a negative outlook or current environment.
Just my two cents (which was worth only 1.2 cents a year ago...)
Did you factor in the weak dollar? I guess it's not a big problem if you're spending it here.
As you say, the loud silence in the mainstream media regarding the household survey is important, and in the direction of the same old bias. Aside from that, the discrepancy is both interesting and important. One does indeed read various reasons to prefer the household survey. I wish and hope that it reflects the economy more accurately than the payroll report. However, I am not all that hopeful as Greenspan said something to the effect of all in all he thought the payroll report more reliable. While Greenspan is obviously not the only professional whose opinion is worth listening to, he does sit at the top of a web and has shown reasonable judgment before.