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Since 9/11 we have had two measures (elections) in NJ. The Gov's race was unfortunately never really competitive, but in the 2002 Senate race Forrester would have indeed beaten the incumbent Torricelli. I can't remember how many times I argued the numbers, and folks wouldn't believe me because of NJ's recent Presidential history. Granted, it was Torricelli's weakness and not Forrester's strength, but do note the Dems had to bring in a retired incumbent (illegally) to keep the seat. So maybe 2002 and its aftermath demonstrated a rightward shift. I dunno. But if so, NJ's got a good ways to shift. :-)

Tactics trump policy every single time. Who wins is who has people go to the polls and vote for him.

G O T V. If Nevada is vulnerable, then rent all the rental vans in Vegas and Reno and use them only to carry our people. Hit the phone banks. Make sure elderly veterans who are members of the VFW and American Legion have a way to the polls.

G O T V trumps policy every single time.