[KQQL]

“It was hard to catch up,” Forti said. “We’re not going to have that problem in South Dakota.”

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Oh Really
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SD house Election - 06/01/04
Herseth 58% - Diedrich 29% - Undecided 13%
Mason Dixon Poll
MOE+/-3.5% (Reg Voters) 02/07/04

[TheBigB]

Janklow left a bad taste in everyone's mouth in SD. This race was over from the minute it started. Herseth will win by double digits.

[ICE-FLYER]

Republicans are reeling after the Democrats’ special-election victory last week in Kentucky, but they are gearing up for another big fight, in South Dakota.

TRANSLATION: "We really want all of the readers reading this to think that the GOP hasn't really got anything going for itself and that the massive victories including Bush in 2000, and the MID-Season elections heavily favoring GOP except for Louisiana are nothing and that the GOP is going down down down. Believe it believe it we can make a difference, after this is objective reporting!!!"

END OF TRANSLATION

[floriduh voter]

bttt from S. Dakotan for life.

[Dems_R_Losers]

I just talked to someone who was very involved in the Kentucky race (it's my home district) and he said what the Dems did was identify 35,000 Democrats who hate President Bush and they got every single one of them to the polls. Turnout was HUGE. They also spent a lot of money on direct mail to Democrats and on large ads in small town papers, while of course the Republicans spent everything on TV. The NRCC totally blew that election and now they are making excuses that Chandler had better name ID and Kerr couldn't catch up. That's a load of BS. So I expect a similar result in South Dakota.

[ColoradoDakota]

Herseth is particularly vulnerable on abortion. She is one of the key endorsees of Emily's List (and NOW). However, you will look in vain on her site for her views on the issue. Small wonder given the very pro-life vote in this very Catholic and Lutheran state.

Two things might flush this issue out: (1) Currently an anti-abortion bill is making its way through the SD Senate and it has already passed the House. Politicians will be forced to make a stand. (2) The highest Catholic in the state - Bishop Carlson of the Sioux Falls - is already on record about Roman Catholics and abortion and will most likely reiterate this position. This will not be helpful to the CINO (Catholic in name only) Daschle.

[ColoradoDakota]

Diedrich is a college-educated farmer with international ag experience. I am hard-pressed to think of the last farmer who represented SD in D.C. Perhaps Clint Roberts who won in 1980. Anyway, Diedrich will hit this HARD and it WILL have appeal from the many Republican farmers who have been Daschle voters in the past because Daschle brings home the pork.

Another thing about Herseth is she is seen by many as an opportunistic carpetbagger. She chose not to go to college there, nor grad school and then worked in a DC law firm. She only returned to SD to run for the 2002 Congressional seat.

She's a single, pro-abortion, post-feminist, Georgetown-dwelling, beltway-working lawyer.

Compare to Diedrich. Went to the state's largest university - South Dakota State U. - and built up the family farm while raising his large family. Here's what his website states:

"Larry and his wife Jackie have been married for 21 years and have four children, Joshua, Brandi, Christopher and Mikkail. Larry and Jackie have shared their home with two foster daughters and two foreign exchange students. Larry attended Elkton High School and South Dakota State University, graduating with an animal science degree in 1979. Before returning to the farm in 1982, Larry was a district sales manager for Cargill Seeds in Illinois. Serving the public has been a focal point for Larry's activities off the farm. He has held state and national leadership positions in various organizations representing agriculture, his church and the state of South Dakota."

[ColoradoDakota]

Last one (I promise).

Lost in the conventional wisdom of Democratic strength in the state of South Dakota is that almost every statewide office is held by Republicans (Gov., Lt. Gov., AG, etc.), both houses of the legislature are controlled by the Republicans and the GOP has well over a 10% registration advantage. The GOP's strength is in its county organizations and they are STRONG. There will be no schisms in supporting Diedrich as there was with Janklow.

The Dems strength, incongruously and unfortunately, is limited to the two US Senate seats. (My theory is the rational thinking that Dems are more adept and guileless of bringing home pork.)

Also, the last time that a Democrat was a Congressman was 8 years ago when Tim Johnson gave up his seat to run for Senate.

A prior posting from FR by fieldmarshaldj, on 8/22/03, was encyclopedic on this:


"Until 1983, SD had 2 House seats, divided east and west. Republicans Ben Reifel (an American Indian) and E.Y. Berry both decided to retire in 1970, and embarrassingly, we lost both seats to 'Rats Jim Abourezk and Frank Denholm. The badly incapacitated GOP Sen. Karl Mundt was unable to run for reelection in '72 and Abourezk took his seat. In 1972, the former Lieutenant-Governor, Jim Abdnor, took back the Berry (Abourezk) seat that year. Denholm lost for a 3rd term in '74 to [Republican] Larry Pressler (which actually was a good year for the GOP in SD, we almost knocked off McGovern with POW Leo Thorsness and a 35-year old Bill Janklow won the 'Rat held Attorney-General's office and we came close to knocking off Dick Kneip for his 3rd term). Abdnor deferred to Pressler as Abourezk embarrassingly (for him) was forced to retire (as I mentioned Kneip did early) in '78, but remained a thorn in his side for the next 20 years spreading all sorts of obscene rumors about Pressler (including the infamous gay rumors). Alas, Pressler's seat went to Tom Daschle who beat Leo Thorsness by a very questionable margin (around 100 votes, if I remember) and when Abdnor vacated and the seat went to GOP newbie Clint Roberts in '80, Roberts and Daschle had to run statewide against each other when the state went to one House seat. Had it been '80, Roberts might've beaten him, but '82 was a bad GOP year, and Daschle prevailed. From 1983-97, Daschle and his successor, Tim Johnson, held the lone House seat. When Thune won in '96, he had been the first GOPer since '80 with Clint Roberts to win a House seat. So from 1971-97, aside from '75-'79, the 'Rats have occupied either one of the old two seats or the At-Large one."

[AuH2ORepublican]

Diedrich has to hit Herseth on the head on abortion. He has to let everyone know that she's a pro-abortion liberal. Once voters are aware of this, Herseth will drop like a rock in the polls, and it will all be about turnout in the general election.

[Clintonfatigued]

Fortunately, there is time for Diedrich to establish name identification and catch up in the polls. Alice Kerr didn't have that luxury.