Afghanistan: Now it's all-out war

Asia Times ^ | 2.24.04 | Syed Saleem Shahzad

[Dr. Marten]

Afghanistan: Now it's all-out war
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - A massive land and air military operation on either side of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is now under way, with the main goals of catching leading commanders of the Afghan resistance, as well as Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

The focal point of the operation at this point is the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan on the Pakistani side, and Paktia and Paktika in Afghanistan. On Sunday, Pakistani Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat confirmed that Pakistani paramilitary troops had been deployed in these tribal areas.

In the coming weeks, the operation is gradually expected to increase in intensity and size and spread to all seven of the Pakistani-administrated tribal areas, and subsequently to all major Afghan cities, including Jalalabad, Asadabad, Gardez, Khost, Zabul and Kandahar, in a bid to wipe out the Afghan resistance.

Well-placed sources stationed in South Waziristan's Wana told Asia Times Online of a large mobilization of Pakistani troops in the two agencies, adding that several villages situated on the border had been evacuated as there were fears that they would be caught in crossfire between Pakistani troops, guerrillas and US-led coalition troops on the Afghan side of the border.

Pakistan law-enforcement agencies have virtually sealed entry and exit routes in North and South Waziristan, and travelers report exhaustive security checkposts.

Across in Afghanistan, coalition troops are conducting house-to-house searches in the town of Khost and its outskirts. Many suspects (mostly bearded with black turbans) have been rounded up. The main targets of operations here are resistance leaders Jalaluddin Haqqani and Saifullah Mansoor and their followers, who are believed to number between 2,000 and 2,500, spread all over the Khost, Paktia, Paktika and Gardez areas.

Asia Times Online can confirm media reports in Pakistan that Pakistan has allowed the US to use some of its air bases for surveillance purposes, including Kohat and Bannu. Residents of North West Frontier Province are already witnessing flights of US "spy" planes over the region.

The latest operation will be characterized by:

• Very slow development.
• Deployment of troops over vast areas.
• Extensive use of aerial and satellite monitoring.
  
  Coalition forces aim gradually to cordon off huge areas to squeeze out guerrillas, no matter how long it takes. This will lead to the second stage of the offensive, in which the "war" will spread across Pakistan's seven tribal areas and corresponding territory across the border in what the US terms a "hammer and anvil" approach.
  
  Reports over the weekend in Britain's Sunday Express suggested that US and United Kingdom troops had cornered Mullah Omar and bin Laden in an area near Pakistan's Balochistan province. The Pakistan armed forces have denied this, and reject stories that any such foreign troops are operating in the country.
  
  Resistance lying low
  At present, all the big names in the Afghan resistance movement are based in and around their "home" territory. For instance, Saifullah Mansoor moves around the Zarmat and Gardez area. Jalaluddin Haqqani and his guerrillas shelter in the mountainous terrain of Paktia province. Mullah Omar shuttles between Kandahar, Orugzan and Zabul. Ustad Fareed and Kashmir Khan are positioned in their Kunar Valley base. Key resistance leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, meanwhile, is the odd one out. He is in Kunar province, although his Khiroti tribe comes from Ghazni. He was born in Kunduz, but raised and educated in the capital Kabul. From his headquarters in Sorobi (near Kabul), he waged his battles against the former monarch Zahir Shah, the invading Soviets and the communist regime of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
  
  Now he has made the Kunar Valley his base. A part of his strategy has been to restore communication with his former mujahideen friends in the guerrilla war against the Soviets in the 1980s who are now a part of the US-sponsored Hamid Karzai administration. These include Ismail Khan from Herat, Uzbek warlord General Rashid Dostum and Professor Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf.
  
  Hekmatyar was recently offered a truce by the US and a role in the future political mainstream, but the veteran fighter has yet to respond. However, close associates of his Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan believe that at this point Hekmatyar will not leave the resistance, although he will not completely slam the door on dialogue. Insiders say that he aims to wait until the US leaves Afghanistan, at which point he will jump into the political pan. The late Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Masoud adopted a similar strategy with Dr Najibullah's government in 1992. Masoud remained in touch with Najibullah's administration even though Masoud was at war with the communist regime. So when Najibullah decided to throw in the towel, he did so to Masoud's forces to the north, rather than to the Hezb-i-Islami forces in the south.
  
  The response of the resistance to the new offensive has been deliberately muted. Even suicide missions and random guerrilla attacks have been scaled back as the resistance lies low, possibly until a major spring offensive is launched.
  
  The number of foreign fighters in the resistance has dwindled, with only those Arabs and other fighters who have been in the country for many years and who speak local dialects and know the terrain left. Most of them are allied with commanders such as Saifullah Mansoor and Jalaluddin Haqqani. A few are stand-alone operators, such as bin Laden. At present they are believed to be hiding in an area that begins in Chitral and ends in Dir on the Pakistani side. Another possibility is the Khyber Agency.
  
  As long as bin Laden remains at large, stories of his supposed whereabouts will help the coalition cause in spreading its net further and further. Pakistani troops have already been sent to Mohmand Agency, where tribal leaders have been given a warning to surrender their weapons or face the consequences. Next in line are Mohmand, Bajur, Orackzai and Khyber agencies. The situation is likely to reach a climax in April or May. One way or another, a big war looms in the region.
  
  

[Snickersnee]

Pakistan: the Third Front. Coming soon to a WoT near you.

[CurlyBill]

If true, this is the biggest "telegraphed punch" in history.

[ASA Vet]

a big war looms in the region.

Do any of them have a clue about what a "big war" would be?

[Finalapproach29er]

Osama whacked by Easter Sunday? Could happen.

[Prodigal Son]

I'm probably leaving some names out here but I thought you guys might be interested.

[Dog]

Sooner..

[Dog]

There is something different about the hunt this time. Tenet paying that visit.......that HUGE raid yesterday. Comments today from a military guy.... about the sands in the hour glass running out on Binny.

Freeper Molly Pitcher heard something on Fox in the 5 o'clock hour from one of their experts.....that we are very close to killing or capturing Bin Laden. Pakistan has given the green light for us to take out Bin Laden on Pakistani soil.

[Huck]

Sorry, but I am way too biased against arabs (pronounced AY-rabs) to believe an article written by someone called Syed Saleem Shahzad.

[Huck]

Don't get your hopes up too much, Dog. Been down that road before. Fact is, neither you nor I have any control over Osama's fate (except on election day). We just have to sit tight. If it happens, when it happens, it will be a glorious day. But I am taking the stoic's approach to it. It is out of my control, therefore, it is nothing to me.

[PokeyJoe]

yeah, that's like reading something made up by some guy named Moe Hammid.

[Prodigal Son]

FWIW, The fellow's article matches up with dozens of others that have been posted in the past few days.

[dr_lew]

Did you ever read _War with the Newts_ by Karl Capek ? ( He also wrote R.U.R., the play which introduced the word, "robot" . ) The newts were expert at harbor engineering, so you can guess the connection here.

[montomike]

It would be really neat if they crucified him!

[Cap Huff]

"the sands in the hour glass running out"

I think this is the third time someone over there has used this particular expression. It must be some general's pet expression that gets repeated over and over by all the subordinates. It does suggest to me that there is some real conviction that they have a particular plan and are getting close.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The lower level military guys seem to be making more pronouncements than the higher level.

[Cap Huff]

I was curious about the similarity of statements coming out of Afghanistan about catching OBL, so I went back and picked out what I could find.

Yesterday Lt Col Beevers used the expression about the sands of the hourglass:

"The sands in their hour glass are running out," Lt Col Matthew Beevers, a spokesman for the US military in Afghanistan, said of bin Laden and other fugitives. "We remain committed and reaffirm our effort to track these guys down and get 'em."

Still, Beevers played down speculation that American forces had closed in on bin Laden, saying that if coalition forces knew where he was, "we'd already have him".

http://www.sundaytimes.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,7034,8795557%255E401,00.html

Then here going back about 10 days ago:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1079876/posts

Posted on 02/17/2004 1:26:11 PM EST by areafiftyone

WASHINGTON - The commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan [Army Lt. Gen. David Barno] said Tuesday that his troops are stepping up efforts to capture Osama bin Laden and ousted Taliban leader Mullah Omar, maintaining that the "sand in their hour glass is running out." [There’s that expression again]

The expression was used in response to a question from Reuters. Gen. Barno did not bring up the subject.

It was taken from the transcript at the following link:

http://www.dod.mil/transcripts/2004/tr20040217-0446.html


Two weeks earlier at this link:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1070617/posts

U.S. general optimistic about bin Laden capture (HMMMMM Very interesting!)

Reuters ^ | 2/3/04
Posted on 02/03/2004 9:42:56 AM EST by areafiftyone

KABUL, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. military's top general in Afghanistan expressed optimism on Tuesday that al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and Taliban chief Mullah Mohammed Omar would be captured this year.

At a ceremony marking the shift of the U.S. headquarters in Afghanistan to Kabul, Lieutenant-General David Barno gave the most optimistic assessment yet by a U.S. commander on prospects for capturing bin Laden, the world's most wanted man.

"Their day has ended and this year will decisively sound the death knell of their movements in Afghanistan," Barno said.

"We are clearly focused on the leadership," he added at a news conference later.

"This is important year, Afghanistan is coming out of a long difficult period, and I think this is going to be very very critical year for us here."

Asked whether he was optimistic about capturing bin Laden, Omar and allied militant leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar this year, he said moving the headquarters to Kabul from Bagram air base to the north of the capital would help coordinate intelligence work.

"So I am optimistic," he said.

[Side note here: Hekmatyar keeps coming up. Rumor had it that he was taken within the last few days. No confirmation]

Some days earlier at this link:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1067777/posts

Military 'Sure' of Catching Bin Laden This Year
Fox News ^ | 1/29/04
Posted on 01/29/2004 4:08:36 PM EST by areafiftyone

KABUL, Afghanistan — The U.S. military is "sure" it will catch Usama bin Laden (search) this year, a spokesman said Thursday, but he declined to comment on where the Al Qaeda (search) leader may be hiding.

Bin Laden, chief suspect in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks that sparked the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, is widely believed to be holed up somewhere along the mountainous Pakistani-Afghan border with former Taliban (search) leader Mullah Omar (search).

Following last month's capture of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, American commanders in Afghanistan have expressed new optimism they will eventually find bin Laden. Spokesman Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty said the military now believed it could seize him within months.

"We have a variety of intelligence and we're sure we're going to catch Usama bin Laden and Mullah Omar this year," Hilferty said. "We've learned lessons from Iraq and we're getting improved intelligence from the Afghan people."

Exactly a month ago at this link: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1065426/posts

General vows to catch Bin Laden (By the end of this year)
BBC News ^ | 1/26/04
Posted on 01/26/2004 10:10:42 AM EST by areafiftyone

The American commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan says he expects to bring Osama Bin Laden to justice by the end of this year.

Lieutenant-General David Barno said dealing with Bin Laden and ex-Taleban leader Mullah Omar was a top priority.

"The sands in the hourglass of all of the al-Qaeda senior leadership is running out," said General Barno. [There’s that expression again]

My conclusion: When Lt. Col Beevers used that expression yesterday he was very purposely using Gen Barno’s expression and in effect is saying that the intelligence assessment has not changed in the last month. Our guys are close.

[Molly Pitcher]

More details. Thanks Dog.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Very interesting pattern!

[PRND21]

Bump