Schroeder party trounced in German state vote: exit polls

Yahoo News ^ | 3/1/04

[jalisco555]

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats were trounced in a regional election in the city-state of Hamburg seen as a key test for his center-left government, exit polls said.

The polls showed Schroeder's SPD taking between 29 and 32 percent to between 46.5 and 48 percent for the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), who currently lead the right-wing populist government.

Voters, who turned out in droves, had been expected to punish the Social Democrats over Schroeder's unpopular economic reform drive.

But the outcome, if confirmed, would mark the worst result for the SPD in the northern city-state since World War II.

The ballot was seen as a key first test for the chancellor as he heads into a marathon election year with 14 municipal, state and European polls.

The Greens party, which is the junior partner in the national ruling coalition, tallied between 12.5 and 13 percent.

The CDU, which may now be able to lead Germany's second city with an absolute majority, ran its campaign on the popularity of Mayor Ole von Beust.

Beust, an affable aristocrat, claimed credit for a renaissance in the cosmopolitan city, once notorious for its rough-and-tumble dock district, high crime rate and booming prostitution and drugs trades.

SPD candidate Thomas Mirow, an uncharismatic technocrat, had attempted to distance himself from Schroeder's government in Berlin, focusing on local issues such as schools and health care facilities.

The election was called after Hamburg's right-wing governing coalition collapsed in acrimony in December after two and a half years in power.

For normally sleepy state politics the campaign has been unusually lively, spattered with sex allegations, an assassination bid, the sacking of a far-right populist labelled the "Judge without Mercy" and a drag queen who is running on her own ticket.

The populist judge, Ronald Schill, only scored three percent with his new Pro Deutsche Mitte party and will not be eligible for representation in the state legislature.

[jalisco555]

Another defeat for Schroeder's party. Looks like anti-Americanism isn't the key to electoral success after all.

[southernnorthcarolina]

I'm about ready to give up trying to figure out who to pull for in European elections. My natural instict is to root for the party either named, or generally reported as being, conservative.

But recall that in France, Chirac is at least nominally a conservative, having triumphed over a Socialist; and in the UK, Labour's Tony Blair has supported our Iraq policy to a far greater extent than would the Conservative Party. So for me, it's sometimes a tough call.

Not so tough in Germany, though. Herr Schroeder should be sent packing.

[claudiustg]

The right has been traditionally stronger in northern Germany. It will be interesting to see if there is a shift in Berlin and Bavaria as well.

[wayoverontheright]

. Looks like anti-Americanism isn't the key to electoral success after all.

Unfortunately, polls indicate it seems to be working fairly well in America.

[Redmen4ever]

It appears to me that a snap election was called because the Christian Democrats sensed that they could gain an absolute majority in the state election, and rule without a coalition with the small right-wing party of their city, the Shill Party. In this estimate, they appear to have been correct. They gained almost 50 percent of the vote. When votes cast for non-qualifying parties are discarded, they just may wind up with an absolute majority.

Even if the Christian Democrats gains an absolute majority, they might still bring the Shill Party into a coalition government, but this will be on terms that they will dictate.

The Social Democrats are in dissarray in Hamburg and elsewhere in Germany. They are wedded to a left-wing agenda because of their coalition partners, the Greens. As a consequence, they cannot re-position themselves toward the center. It is just a matter of time before the center-right consolidates its majority in Germany.

[BMCDA]

The right has been traditionally stronger in northern Germany.

Nope, actually it's almost always been the other way around.

It will be interesting to see if there is a shift in Berlin and Bavaria as well.

I'd welcome a change in Berlin but certainly not in Bavaria. Heck, Bavaria is THE conservative stronghold in Germany.

[DeaconBenjamin]

Was it Franz-Josef Strauss who gave a speech in Texas stating "we southerners have to stick together." LOL!

[Redmen4ever]

With more results in, it looks as though the Christian Democrats while scoring a major victory but also avoided a major defeat.

Both the liberal party (Free Democrats) and right-wing party (Shill Party) failed to make 5 percent. Hence, votes for them were discarded.

COMBINED, the center-right parties got about 55 percent of the vote (I'm guessing 47 + 4 + 4).

BUT, because the votes cast for two of the center-right parties are discarded, the one center-right party that got more than 5 percent, only got 52 percent of the qualifying vote.

STILL, that is an absolute majority, so they will rule.

IT WOULD HAVE BEEN a funny joke if the total votes cast for the center-right INCREASED but, because of the 5 percent rule, the RED-GREEN coalition gained power.

[claudiustg]

Oopps! Dated information rattling around in dated scull alert. Sorry!