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Here's my rationale for thinking that Kerry will either physically or mentally collapse before the election.

#1. Kerry's mental imbalance:
Teresa Heinz Kerry has given interviews to the Washington Post and Boston Magazine,where she stated that Kerry, to this day, has nightmares where he "screams and flails at night" and "screams and bangs on the walls of his bedroom." These are not isolated,but,nightly occurences.
Teresa has also indicted to the Washington Post that Kerry has either been in counseling or is in need of counseling for his bizarre behavior.
Kerry made have fabricated or fantasized parts of his Vietnam service.

He told the Washington Post,that he was part of a covert CIA operation into Cambodia. He told the Washington Post that he has a secret compartment in his always present black attache case, where he keeps a mildewed camo hat, that was given to him , by a CIA agent, as a memento of their covert missions into Cambodia.
As part of his CIA reenactment for the WP reporter,he donned the mildewed hat and used his hands to form a gun and pointed it at the reporter and said " Pow."
( John Kerry :Hunter,Dreamer, Realist, WP, Jun 1,2003)

But, according to a 5 part series in the Boston Globe-(6/13/03) Kerry's Commanding Officer was angry that Kerry had violated US policy and had taken his crew into Cambodia.

" To top it off," Kerry said," he had gone several miles inside Cambodia, which theoretically was off limits, prompting Kerry to send a sarcastic message to his superiors that he was writing from the Navy's 'most inland' unit."

"Back at his base, a weary, disconsolate Kerry sat at his typewriter, as he often did, and poured out his grief. 'You hope that they'll courtmartial you or something because that would make sense,' Kerry typed that night."

So either Kerry was part of a CIA covert op, as he told the Washington Post or he had gone off on his own, disobeying orders and then hoped for a court martial, as his CO told the Boston Globe.
In just the space of a few paragraphs, Kerry was described as having "internal conflict," and being "haunted," "full of despair," "depressed," " disconsolate."

Kerry is either a liar in the tradition of Bill Clinton or he has lost touch with reality.
Kerry wanted everyone to believe that he had thrown his own medals and ribbons over the White House fence in 1971.

According to an interview he gave Joe Klein, for the New Yorker in 2002, Kerry claimed that he had thrown only ribbons and not medals but, not at the at the White House,but, onto the Capitol steps:
"Indeed, Kerry's every move—the fact that he tossed his combat ribbons, not his medals, onto the Capitol steps. "

However,according to a letter written by one of Kerry's friends ( Bill Willson) and VVAW comrades, Kerry issued yet another explanation ( in 1984 ) for his medal tossing. This angered those who believed for 13 years that Kerry had thrown his own medals. ( text here-counterpunch.org/willson 1015html )-
Bill Willson wrote angrily to Kerry:

"Your 1984 campaign response: You had returned the medals of a WWII acquaintance at his direction."

So,now Kerry has stated publically three different versions for his medal a/o ribbon tossing-they were a) his own ribbons,b) they were the ribbons and medals of other Vietnam vets and the 3rd version c) -they were the ribbons of a WWII vet.
Kerry's crewmates remember orders from the CO of their swiftboat,to open fire on suspicious old men,women and children on the shoreline.During the war,civilians posed as much danger as the VC. What is interesting,is that Kerry does not remember ordering his crew to open fire on the civilians.
His crewmates opened fire and killed old men,women and children,at Kerry's orders,but,Kerry has blocked all memory of this.
In addition:

"Admiral Elmo Zumwalt, has said that during his own command of US naval forces in Vietnam, just prior to his anointment as CNO, young Kerry had created great problems for him and the other top brass, by killing so many non-combatant civilians and going after other non-military targets."

"We had virtually to straight-jacket him to keep him under control," the admiral said.

By all acounts, Kerry had a very dysfunctional and isolated childhood. In many ways, he was as abandoned by his parents, as Clinton was. The only difference was that Clinton was left by his mother in a run down Arkansas shack and Kerry was abandoned by his parents to the care of various private schools,primarily in Europe.
Joe Klein:
" Kerry has never been the most sociable fellow. He grew up lonely: his father was a foreign-service officer who was rarely home; his mother was a member of the aristocratic Forbes family—they made their fortune in the China trade—but she was one of eleven siblings and the fortune had been subdivided into insignificance by the time John Kerry's generation came along."
" He was brought up among the wealthy, but his was a threadbare, erstwhile aristocracy. There were many houses, most of them other people's houses: in Brittany (a Forbes family estate, where his mother had spent much of her youth); on Naushon Island, just off Cape Cod (another Forbes retreat); in Washington; in Groton, Massachusetts. He had been sent to boarding school in Switzerland, and hated it (he speaks fluent French and some Italian)."
" He was then sent to boarding school in the United States, to St. Paul's, in Concord, New Hampshire. He was one of a handful of Catholic students; they were sent to Mass on Sunday in a taxi."

When Kerry ran for his first public office in 1972,his loss threw him for a loop. As did Clinton's first loss . Clinton became a recluse for a few years,unable to deal with the rejection and humiliation. Kerry reacted the same way.

From "The Long War of John Kerry by Joe Klein" :

Regarding Kerry's loss for a Massachusetts Congressional seat in 1972:
"By all accounts, the loss was devastating. It was the first deviation from the career trajectory he had imagined for himself in prep school.
"He came to my home in New Hampshire that weekend," his friend George Butler, a documentary filmmaker who was then a freelance photographer, recalls. "He wouldn't say a word to anyone."
"He sat there Friday night and built an entire model ship from scratch."
"On Saturday, he and I climbed a mountain together. He still wasn't talking. .. He was the most despondent-looking human being I had ever seen."

Klein and the friend do not indicate how long after the 3 day week end, Kerry's mute and withdrawal phase lasted. Could have been days to weeks, we don't know. Bet this odd behavior is just the tip of the iceberg.

Kerry's Physical Problems:

By all accounts,Kerry has been waited on, hand and foot by servants, his entire life.
He has never had to hustle or scrap for anything.
Running for a Senate seat in Mass every 6 years,is entirely different than running a harried,high pressure presidential campaign.
Kerry's advisers acknowledge that Kerry usually becomes lazy and unmotivated during his campaigns.He cannot maintain the motivation required for a long and arduous campaign and has been lucky,that he was a liberal running for a seat in Mass.
Kerry refuses to release his military and medical records.
We have no idea of the status of Kerry's physical health,other than observation and scant medical reporting.
To the most casual observer,Kerry appears gaunt,haggard,listless and low energy.
Kerry's father died of prostate cancer in 2000.
Kerry underwent a prostatectomy for prostate cancer in Feb,2003.
By media accounts,the surgery was successful, but, Kerry will not be given a cancer free, bill of health for 10 years.Kerry refuses to release his medical records,so we have no idea what his current PSA is or anything else,about his health status.

Kerry bears the physical similarities of someone suffering from Marfan's Syndrome.

"People with the Marfan syndrome are typically, but not always, very tall or taller than unaffected people in their family, slender and loose jointed."
"The Marfan syndrome affects the long bones of the skeleton. Therefore the arms, legs, fingers, and toes may be disproportionately long in relation to the rest of the body."
"A person with the Marfan syndrome often has a long, narrow face, and the roof of the mouth may be arched, causing the teeth to be crowded."

Kerry has admitted to cosmetic jaw surgery to correct a dental malocclusion.

In a Washington Post article, in 2002, Kerry's aide, David Wade, says Kerry's surgically enhanced jaw was not the result of a cosmetic chin-tuck but rather from "an operation to correct 'a malocclusion,' a bad bite that caused a clicking in his jaw."

Other skeletal abnormalities include a sternum (breastbone) that is either protruding or indented, curvature of the spine (scoliosis), and flat feet."
Kerry appears stoop shouldered,whether that is to hide a funnel chest, is unknown.
In addition,Marfan's Syndrome usually involves the heart-
"Most people with the Marfan syndrome have problems associated with the heart and blood vessels."
" Small leaks may not cause any symptoms, but larger ones may result in shortness of breath, fatigue and palpitations (a very fast or irregular heart rate)."
" Because of faulty connective tissue, the wall of the aorta (the large artery that carries blood from the heart to the rest of the body) may be weakened and stretch, a process called aortic dilation."
" Aortic dilation increases the risk that the aorta will tear (dissect) or rupture, causing serious heart problems or sometimes sudden death."

Kerry is said by his family and French relatives to resemble Abraham Lincoln.Abraham Lincoln was thought to have had Marfan's Syndrome.
My primary concern about Marfans is the cardiac component and the risk for sudden death. Not a quality you want in a POTUS.
President Bush has always released the results of his yearly physical- John Kerry refuses to do the same.
President Bush has ordered all paperwork pertaining to his military service released.
John Kerry has refused to do the same. We have no idea whether John Kerry is in counseling for post traumatic stress syndrome or other psychological conditions or whether he has been treated for Marfan's or other cardiac conditions.
We have no idea of the present status of his prostate cancer or follow ups.
Kerry is a medical,psychological and military mystery.