Kerry Plans to Continue Push in the South

Yahoo! News ^ | 3/9/04 | Ron Fournier - AP

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON -

John Kerry (news - web sites) will play in the South. Winning is the hard part. With four Southern primary victories in hand — and four more expected Tuesday night — the left-leaning Massachusetts senator has hit his peak in Dixie. He'll be lucky to win one or two states below the Mason-Dixon line Nov. 2, and only then if President Bush (news - web sites) loses by an unexpected landslide.

But the region is still critical to Kerry's election strategy: Just as the White House hopes to make him compete in Democratic-inclined California, Kerry must allow Bush no Southern comfort.

"I will campaign in the South, and I expect to win some Southern states," Kerry says.

Without a fight in the South, Bush could concentrate his resources on Midwest battlegrounds and Florida, the state whose recount decided the 2000 election. Bush's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, vows to keep his state out of Kerry's hands.

"One of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate, who votes 98 percent of the time with Ted Kennedy, who has opposed almost every weapon system proposed in the last two decades and who shares little with Southern voters in terms of values, will not carry any Southern state," the governor told The Associated Press in a brief e-mail exchange.

Florida, Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi held primaries Tuesday. The nominee-in-waiting was expected to win all four states and a bulk of their 465 delegates.

In 2000, Bush and Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) competed in three Confederacy states — Arkansas, Louisiana and Gore's native Tennessee — as well as Florida and the border states of West Virginia and Kentucky. Bush spent about $25 million on TV ads in the region while Gore spent $16 million, according to Democratic figures.

Bush won all six of those Southern venues en route to a sweep of the 11 Confederate states.

If the Dixie-bred Gore couldn't claim a single Southern victory, why does Kerry think he stands a chance?

"It's changed profoundly — the country has changed," Kerry told the AP. "There is a bitterness about the outcome of that election. Much more significantly than that, there are hundreds of thousands of people out of work."

Kerry said economic and health care concerns will trump social issues highlighted by Bush such as gun control — "I'm a hunter" — and gay rights.

"He can't come to the South and talk about jobs," Kerry said. "I'm not going to let it happen."

That's bold talk from a candidate whose own advisers put Southern victories at the outer edge of their wish list.

In plotting his course to 270 electoral votes, Kerry's team ranks the states from Democratic sure-bets to GOP shoo-ins — starting with 11 states plus the District of Columbia won easily by Gore in 2000, worth 168 electoral votes.

Adding 16 more victories to their list — all battlegrounds such as Florida and West Virginia — and Kerry's team gets to 342 electoral votes. Only deep into landslide territory, 350 or more electoral votes, does Arkansas pop up on their list, then Louisiana.

Bush hopes to put Arkansas out of play early, starting with $150,000 worth of ads on network TV this week.

Louisiana has a significant minority population and economic woes, factors that could favor Kerry. But the president won Louisiana by 8 percentage points, and his advisers don't plan to advertise in the state unless Kerry makes inroads.

Tennessee, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky fall even deeper on Kerry's list. Alabama, South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma and Mississippi are out of reach.

The idea is to force Bush to spread his resources in the presidential race while giving cover to Democratic congressional candidates. It's what Bush tried to do when he spent millions in California while losing the state by double digits in 2000.

A California victory would "come at the extreme end" of Bush's best-case-scenario list, said GOP strategist Ron Kaufman. But a $150 million-plus treasury gives Bush more wiggle room than cash-strapped Kerry.

"We have a much better ability to play on a larger map than they do," said Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd.

Independent pollster Andrew Kohut agreed, saying: "It's pushing a rock up the hill for a Democrat to win in the South."

His firm, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, conducted a poll that showed Southern Democrats are more likely to oppose gay marriage and support military force than Democrats outside the region. They also are less angry at Bush than Democrats elsewhere, according to exit polls of primary voters.

In Kerry's favor, Democrats in the South agreed with their fellow partisans on the need for a "social safety net"

In Florida, a state less reflective of the South than of Bush's problems nationwide, a recent poll gave Kerry a slight lead. It showed voters siding with him over Bush on the economy, Social Security (news - web sites) and Medicare.

"There's no jobs," said Kenneth Freeman, 86, a New Smyrna Beach, Fla., resident inclined to vote against Bush. "He's paying no attention to the economy."

[Peach]

And the South says "Bring It On."

We don't like traitors down here. Or Flip Flops. Or Metrosexuals. Or Gigolos. Or users of women.

[zencat]

South plans to continuing pushing back.

[NormsRevenge]

Presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) acknowledges applause from the crowd during a campaign stop at a senior citizens center Tuesday, March 9, 2004 in Evanston, Ill.

Gaylee Andrews, right, along with her husband Ray are the first plaintiffs to file a major federal class action lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (news - web sites) and the Food and Drug Administration (news - web sites) for denying them the ability to buy prescription drugs from Canada. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

[jwalsh07]

"I will campaign in the South, and I expect to win some Southern states," Kerry says.

Great, spend lots of money and don't bother sending a post card.

[NormsRevenge]

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Senator John Kerry (news - web sites) (D-MA) plays his guitar in his seat on the Kerry campaign plane as it flies over the state of Kentucky en route from Tampa, Florida to Chicago March 9, 2004. Kerry is moving another step closer to clinching the Democratic presidential nomination to face President George W. Bush (news - web sites) in the November general election as voters head to the polls today for primary elections in Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas and Florida. REUTERS/Jim Bourg US ELECTION

[spodefly]

"I will campaign in the South, and I expect to win some Southern states," Kerry says.

Not Georgia, you horse faced, flip-flopping, traitorous, elitist, Yankee, liberal ass.

[raloxk]

"There's no jobs," said Kenneth Freeman, 86, a New Smyrna Beach, Fla., resident inclined to vote against Bush. "He's paying no attention to the economy.""

Is this man hoping to get into the job market?????

[Mike Darancette]

Ol' John's gonna have a hard time convincing those folks that he ain't a quiche eatin', gun takin', Frenchie lovin', egg suckin' liberal Yankee.

[NormsRevenge]

[Paul Atreides]

If the Dixie-bred Gore couldn't claim a single Southern victory, why does Kerry think he stands a chance?

And, Frankenkerry makes RoboFop seem almost likable.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

LOL! Great cartoon....

[Viking2002]

Being a displaced Mid-Atlantic boy in Alabama, I can tell you that the reception that Horseface will get down here will be, at best, lukewarm.

[Charles Martel]

Every time I see Kerry holding that guitar, it conjures up memories of an episode of The Munsters which involved something called a "Nothin' Muffin". Anyone else remember it?

[JOE6PAK]

Garsh Dern it Senatu Karry, Whut hew gonna do bout dem HUMMA-SEXUALL fellers gettin HITCHED? Taint right!

[goldstategop]

Dream on... If Kerry wants to waste his campaign money, let him be our guest.

[Dan from Michigan]

So you're a hunter Johnny. Then why the f**k did you vote to ban the 30-30?

"He can't come to the South and talk about jobs," Kerry said. "I'm not going to let it happen."

Oh STFU. You voted for NAFTA, GATT, and MFN for China.

[JOE6PAK]

[oldironsides]

The column by Diane Williamson /Worcester Telegram and Gazette needs to be read by everyone. The paper is owned by the NY Times so I am not sure I can link it without putting FR in trouble.

[Dan from Michigan]

As a Yankee, I'm offended that John Kerry is associated with that term. He probably would have stabbed both sides in the back then too.