Skip to comments.The Saudi War on George Bush
Posted on 03/11/2004 6:44:14 AM PST by doug9732
Saudi Arabia has launched an undeclared war on George W. Bush. This simple fact must be understood by policy and strategy elites, the press, and the general electorate. Otherwise, the Saudis may well succeed in their tacit campaign to sabotage the long term success of Americas war on terror, by engineering the electoral defeat of George W. Bush in November.
President Bush has provoked this response by proclaiming his intention to encourage democracy and liberalism in the Middle East, to liberate the Arab masses from despotic rule, bring peace and prosperity to the region, and halt the spread of militant Islamic terror groups. Unlike past Presidents who, in varying degrees, paid lip service to these ideals, President Bush has acted decisively on them. His politically perilous actions, such as his invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, his conditioning support for a Palestinian state on the cessation of terror, corruption, and dictatorship, and his active promotion and support for liberal groups in the Arab world, have aroused Saudi fears and provoked a quiet counterattack.
George W. Bush seriously disrupted the previous cozy relationship that Saudi Arabia historically enjoyed with the Bush family -- and with Washington power brokers, in general. The Saudis feel that their familys absolute rule over the kingdom may be endangered, and that their efforts to spread their virulent brand of Islam, Wahabbism, may be curtailed by the current Administration. The Saudi royals may well feel abandoned, and in their disillusionment have resolved to prevent a second term for George W. Bush.
The Saudis traditionally had a symbiotic relationship with the Bush family and with George H.W. Bushs coterie among the policy elites of the Republican Party. The largesse of the Saudi royal family is legendary. The Saudi Ambassador to the United States, Prince Bander bin Sultan, has boasted of his success in cultivating powerful Americans:
If the reputation then builds that the Saudis take care of friends when they leave office, you would be surprised how much better friends you have who are just coming into office.
The list of ex-office holders who propagate pro-Saudi spin is a long and disgraceful one. Hume Horan is an ex-Ambassador to Saudi Arabia who is a noble exception to the rule. He says this of his former colleagues who are now on the Saudi dole:
There have been some people who really do go on the Saudi payroll and work as advisors and consultants. Prince Bandar is very good about massaging and promoting relationships like that.
This phenomenon becomes self-evident in charting the history of Bush I and his White House staffers. Former President Bush I traveled the lecture circuit in Arab lands, earning upwards of $100,000 an appearance. Sentiment-tinged gifts to his Presidential Library and $500,000 to fund a scholarship in his name at Phillips Academy Andover (son George Ws preparatory school, not coincidentally) are certainly important, but pale in comparison to his profits from participating in the Carlyle Group.
The Carlyle Group is a supremely successful merchant bank, which also has James Baker (Bush I consiglieri) and Brent Scowcroft (Bush I National Security Adviser) as partners. This particular investment group has enjoyed access to investment funds from the Saudi royal family. Undoubtedly, the triumvirate of former officials, none of them previously renowned for investment prowess, has handsomely prospered from the arrangement.
One-sided relationships are fleeting and rare in the political world, and one is entitled to ask what the Saudis have received in return for their munificent gestures. Publicly, James Baker and Brent Scowcroft have written editorials critical of the approach Bush II has taken towards the Middle East (particularly his support for Israel and regime change in the dictatorships that rule the Arab world). The New York Times reported in 2001 that Bush I had phoned the Saudis in Bush IIss presence, and assured them that his son would do the right thing with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Presumably, this meant pressuring the Israelis.
This sort of arrangement, a comforting one for the Saudis, whose sybaritic lifestyles promoted a level of comfort unknown to all but a few human beings in the history of mankind, began to end as the two Boeing 767s approached the World Trade Center on that fateful morning over two years ago.
The terror attacks convinced George W. Bush that Americas approach to the Middle East needed to be drastically changed, to ensure Americas safety. His campaign to oust the Taliban from theocratic rule in Afghanistan and his defeat of Saddam Hussein sent a message to the Saudis that business as usual was a thing of the past. In calling for liberalism throughout the Arab world and for the acceptance of other religions, Bush challenged the support structure of the Saudi royal family, whose legitimacy is predicated on their role as defender of Islams holy sites and propagator of the faith.
Much more importantly, in severing the ties that once bound, Bush II has declared that the ties of filial duty, which both animate and constrain the dynamics of the Saudi royal family, do not matter so much in his family. Not anymore, at least, no matter what the former appearances. In doing so, George Bush has become an apostate to the Saudis. It is not merely a matter of interests, but rather an issue of deep principle, fundamentally linked to their own way of life, and to their survival.
From the vantage point of the Saudis, Bush II is not just unreliable, but also a danger. He is a self-identified born-again Christian, and is closely allied with the religious wing of the Republican Party. In a theocratic nation which forbids the practice of Christianity, a leader linked to rival religion is anathema. In their eyes (as well as those of some of President Bushs most ardent opponents) he may seem to be something of a theocrat himself, but from a longstanding historical rival religion.
When the Presidents Christian moorings are combined with the exaggerated role that Jewish neo-cons supposedly have in the White House (once again the fevered imaginations of the Saudis bear some resemblance to those of the Presidents most extreme domestic antagonists), trouble of the most fundamental sort looms for their regime. All along, the fanatic Wahabbi wing of the clergy has preached that a holy war exists with the West, and that accommodation with the infidels can only be a tactical pause in the eventual all-out war. From their perspective, it is easy to understand why George W. Bush -- the Christian puppet of the Jews, and thus the embodiment of Wahabbi nightmares -- needs to be removed from office.
How have the Saudis acted to destroy George Bushs political career? By using the oil weapon to torpedo the American economy over the next eight months, and thereby weaken electoral support for George W. Bushs candidacy in November.
The Saudis have traditionally been a swing producer within OPEC, acting to ensure oil prices remain just so -- not too high, not too low by increasing or decreasing their marginal production. Oil prices which are too high may encourage conservation and the development of alternative energy supplies. Prices which are too high also weaken the Western economies where Saudi Arabias investments must be parked.
However, this historical concern seems to have been trumped by Saudi short term desires to inflict as much pain on the American economy as it can, by raising oil prices in the run-up to November.
By restricting OPEC output since the end of hostilities in Iraq, the Saudis have forced oil prices up over the past several months. The American economic recovery is being slowly, almost imperceptibly, throttled. From a low of $23.61 per barrel in May, 2003, average crude oil prices have risen rather steadily, to $31.03 last month, up nearly one-third in eight months. If this rate of increase continues over the next eight months, the economic consequences for America will be grim.
Jobs are not being created at the expected rate, and increasing voter dissatisfaction with the President is shown in public opinion polling, with jobs and the economy heading the list of concerns. Additionally, the Saudis may have been reducing their holdings of petrodollars and converting them into non-dollar denominated assets. This has hurt the value of the dollar. Money flows are difficult to follow, and currency manipulation may have unintended consequences, but a proxy for the Saudi desire to hurt America may be seen in the increasing number of oil field contracts going to non-US companies.
The other factor which may hurt Bushs chances for reelection is the situation in Iraq. Terrorists have been streaming in from Saudi Arabia, to wreak havoc and fund terror groups, despite protestations to the contrary by Saudi spinmeisters. Although attacks have been trending downward, an increase over the next several months would trigger renewed cries of quagmire!
On the domestic front, Saudi-funded think tanks such as the Meridian International Center and the Middle East Institute have been a fount of op-ed writers and experts on cable news channels, who criticize President Bush. The Middle East Institute (headed by ex-Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Edward Walker) is the home of one of President Bushs fiercest critics, Joseph Wilson. Mr. Wilson was at the center of a scandal that plagued the White House when Wilson charged that the White House had leaked to columnist Robert Novak the information that Wilsons wife was a CIA agent, thereby putatively endangering her.
Wilson has proudly declared that his goal in life is to destroy George Bushs Presidency. It is telling that this man, who has no campaign experience, was recently hired by the Kerry campaign. Given that Wilson is also a fierce critic of Israel, the Saudis seem to have spent their money wisely.
The Saudis require stealth for their plan to succeed. They cannot be seen to be suddenly, openly, and catastrophically retaliating against President Bush, as OPEC did with its 1973 oil boycott in the wake of Israeli victory in war. The American public is in no mood to be pushed around by feudal Arab regimes. Instead, they have opted to quietly tighten the noose on the American economy, hoping to escape public blame.
The Bush Administration, which still needs to deal with the Saudis, and many other repressive Arab regimes on the receiving end of Saudi largesse, undoubtedly perceives what is going on, but is constrained by the norms of diplomacy from openly acknowledging the reality of the situation. Voices urging accommodation with the Saudis are still heard within the State Department and elsewhere in the foreign policy apparatus.
Neither the Bush Administration nor the Saudis can afford to have explicit and open conflict disrupt important ongoing common interests. Third parties also depend on the smooth flow of oil to markets. Nobody wants a cessation of Saudi oil exports or any other extreme measures, which could cripple America economically, and disrupt our military readiness, not to mention the disastrous consequences for poorer countries.
Nevertheless, it appears to be the case that the Saudis are engaged in a silent slow motion war with George W. Bushs Administration, aimed at limiting his Presidency to a single term. If they continue with this plan, Republicans can take nothing for granted in November.
Pretty much be an attack on our national interest and national security....I say let them go for it....
The U.S. economy should not be threatened by foreign interests. We should use this as an opportunity to emphasize more exploration and developement of energy resources.
We should open up A.N.W.A.R. for oil drilling, open more exploration in the Gulf and off the California coast. It can be done safely, with minimal risk to the environment, in order to secure energy independence until science and technology can discover cleaner, cheaper sources of energy for our needs.
We should also open up the low sulpher coal fields that the Clinton administration made off limits by illegal means declaring the area a national park/historic antiquity by executive order, bypassing normal proceedures mandated by law.
Maybe we can make the Saudi's think twice about blackmailing the U.S. with oil. The more independent we become, the less oil they can sell, the weaker their power and hold on the world becomes.
How have the Saudis acted to destroy George Bushs political career? By using the oil weapon to torpedo the American economy over the next eight monthsThis is in fact the reverse of what the Saudis did for Reagan, after Reagan loudly declaimed that the Saudis had our support in their own military defense - and that policy was pivotal in simultaneously boosting our economy and subverting that of the (oil-exporting) Soviet Union.
. . . it appears to be the case that the Saudis are engaged in a silent slow motion war with George W. Bushs Administration, aimed at limiting his Presidency to a single term. If they continue with this plan, Republicans can take nothing for granted in November.
We have an oil weapon of our own, for the short term and the long. In the long term Iraq has reserves in the same class as Saudi Arabia's, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is therefore unlikely ever to be more valuable in the long run than it is right now, in the short term of the next few months. I said before, and I repeat,
When will we ever get beneficial use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if not at a time when it will help us, and when we yet have good assurance that its depletion will not leave us excessively exposed to the Saudi oil weapon?
For all you Stooge fans!
Most appropriate, what with all the Saudi "Malice in the Palace".
It'd be a matter of days, but would be a public relations disaster. The best thing we can do is get the word out on this, as I don't believe American voters will take to kindly to foreign despots manipulating our national elections. Simulataneously, we must reach out to alternate oil sources, and let the sheiks know that once we learn to get by without them, our dependence on them will not be easily reestablished.
Now with the double threat of a free and prosperous Iraq and a competitior to the saudis as the "swing" oil producer, the house of saud has decided to do it's best to try to defeat Bush, IMO. Kerry will abandon Iraq and the saudi's hope that Iraq will go back into a "controlled chaos" that will not threaten the house saud rule or become a rival oil producer.
Is that actually true?! I was under the impression that one of the reasons Hussein went into Kuwait was because Iraq's reserves were relatively paltry in comparison to some of her neighbors.
I'm not sure how much Russia can ratchet up production in the short-term, but with oil at over $30/barrel, you'd think a lot of folks would be gearing up production as much as they could. Sure do wish we were doing a better job in utilizing our American reserves.
Iraq has the second largest reserve of oil in the world and a good infratructure could have them producing up to 7-9 million barrels a day, I beleive.
The reason saddam went into Kuwait and then into Saudi Arabia was to corenr the oil market. Saddam used the paltry reserve as an excuse to invade Kuwait.
Good to know...wonder how progress is going in rebuilding Iraq's oil-producing infrastructure so that we can start seeing Iraq provide a counter-balance to the Saudi's mischief-making?
I disagree...we are making progress in both Saudi Arabia and Iran simply by creating a MidEast beachhead in Iraq. We had an immediate justification for going into Iraq based on Soddom's flouting of the UN. Saudi Arabia and Iran, however, will be addressed with a more nuanced approach, wherein we subtly encourage the growing freedom forces to flourish and hopefully overthrow their despotic rulers. Even with the well-established Saudi link to 9/11, we wouldda had a hard time justifying an Iraqi-like invasion of that country, imho.
Have no idea. Although Iraq is exempt from Opec quotas at the current time.
JMO, but once Iraq can pump more oil they are going to try to sell as much as possible to bolster their economy.
I disagree. First we had forces in and around Saudi Arabia, second, we trained the Saudi military, and could have counted on them to back us against their rulers, and third, the rest of the world was in chock as to the extent of the World Trade Center tragedy, and the Saudi citizens Jihadists, to the extent that most European intelligentsia say they would have backed us.
The fact that we did not invade Saudi Arabia instead of Iraq remains because of well connected people in Washington still are on the Saudi payroll, and provide lobbying, and public relation for them. Saddam was a wounded dog, and easy to kick around at will.
The real source of Islamic terrorism is fanatic Islam as it is being spewed by Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
Actually, even Moslem nations were very much aware that the Saudis were behind that attack on America. In addition, the Saudi royal family are not admired anywhere, so taking them on would have been simpler than the so called experts may have thought.
Speaking of ragheads, what is it with God and hair? Why does God creats our hair, and turn back and orders us to cover it. Jews do, Moslems do, and even old fashion Christians do. Whats with that?
The last thing they want is competition, especially U.S. backed competition.
The interesting question is whether Haliburton can get the Iraqi oil flowing in time to keep the prices reasonable...
Perhaps the Saudis and Soros are already cooperating ... Simon & Shuster, CBS, Richard Clarke ...