TX Primary Analysis (How RINO Gov. Perry nominated a Democrat environmental wacko to our courts)

Analysis of Third Court district voting results Smith / Green /Pemberton In the 3rd Court of Appeals area, three candidates for appellate courts were endorsed by Rick Perry, and two won.

The one candidate on whose behalf Gov. Perry was most active was Paul William Green, who defeated Justice Steven Wayne Smith for the Supreme Court. The candidate who beat Ernest Garcia was William Paul "Bill" Green.

William Paul Green is a long-time Democrat and environmentalist whose commitment to the environment is so strong he rides a bus or bicycles to work rather than drive. Paul William Green is a 10-year San Antonio Appeals judge.

Paul Green out-spent Smith by a three-to-one margin. Garcia outspent Bill Green more than thirty-to-one. Pemberton out-spent his opponent by a similar margin.

Not surprisingly, Paul Green won the majority of the counties - 14 of the 24 -- in the Third Court district. Bill Green won 22 of 24 counties. Pemberton won only 8 counties, but won populous Bell and Travis by large enough margins to carry the day.

Paul Green won his race in the Third by 3,352 votes. December 2003 Perry appointee Bob Pemberton, also endorsed by Perry also won his race by a similar margin (3,344). Despite vastly dissimilar inputs, Ernest Garcia lost to Bill Green by 4,923.

Did the name matter? Unquestionably. Was the outcome a result of anti-Hispanic bias? Probably not.

In the neighboring, and demographically similar, (Waco-based) 10th Court of Appeals, Felipe Reyna defeated challenger Lynnan Kendrick by 1,347 votes.

Gov. Perry's Green, Paul Green, had lots of green ($) to spread around. He sent three mailers into all contested congressional districts, and some targeted counties, including Travis. In addition, Paul Green (HE) spent over $120,000 on radio ADS, and did direct automated phone calls on the first day of early voting and again on the Monday before election day.

And the phone calls that final Monday carried Rick Perry's voice, and emphasized his strong endorsement of Green.

This benefited Paul Green as it was meant to, but also benefited the other Green just below him on the ballot.

There was no rational reason why voters would choose Bill Green, and, as Reyna demonstrates, irrational reasons cannot explain the result. But the endorsement of Paul Green by a sitting governor, reinforced by a phone call the day before, does explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Bill Green made no public appearances whatsoever. Paul Green, like Smith, Garcia, and Pemberton, campaigned energetically.

Garcia was endorsed by Gov. Perry, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, and 23 of the 24 Republican county chairs in the Third Court. No other candidate came close to such a sweep of elected officials and activists (Smith swept the activists and lower officials) against Paul Green, while Paul Green picked up Sen. John Cornyn and the Combined Law Enforcement Association of Texas.)

Garcia sent out three mailers to most Republican voters, and a phone call to 31,000 active Republican households (the total vote was 77,659 in the Garcia/Green race, 74,658 in the Pemberton race, and 77,884 in the Smith/Green race. The Paul Green advertising apparently created an impression of familiarity in the minds of Bill Green voters, bringing at least an additional 4,001 to cast ballots where they had skipped the less publicized Pemberton race.

But what accounts for the fact that Bill Green won more counties than Paul Green?

Both Smith and Garcia sent mailers into the area, though Garcia sent more. Smith also advertised on the radio, while Garcia did direct automated phone calls. But Smith was a known elected official and public figure in much of the district while Garcia was not. Not only was Smith known statewide for his work for the plaintiffs in the Hopwood anti-race-preferences case, but he also had run just two years ago in the Republican primary, and fifteen months ago in the general election. Garcia's previous electoral experience was limited to Travis County IN 2000, so he was unknown to many voters across the 24-county area.

Garcia and Bill Green are both Travis County residents, and Garcia cleaned Green's clock in Travis County (1,715 vote advantage).

It seems clear, then, that the Rick Perry recruitment and endorsement of Paul Green led directly to the Bill Green victory.

The irony here is enormous. Perry recruited Paul Green to avenge the loss of Perry appointee Xavier Rodriguez, a self-described moderate with no prior judicial experience appointed solely to allow Perry to claim the mantle of "Hispanic outreach" in his contest against the first ever Hispanic Democratic candidate for Governor. The result was the defeat of Ernest Garcia, an experienced judge whose conservatism has never been questioned - a judge, who, had Perry appointed him in Rodriguez's place in 2002, Smith would not have challenged.

Smith's campaign manager, in fact, appeared as a surrogate for Garcia, and actively worked to promote Garcia's candidacy across the 24-county region.

I know. I managed the Smith campaign. And Ernest Garcia is still the best man for the Republican nomination in the Third Court, place four.

I know that because I know Bill Green. I met with Bill Green and tried to talk him out of the race, and Green lied to me and said he would withdraw.

And now Rick Perry's machinations have led to a hard-core environmentalist, who voted in Democrat primaries until 1998, and who worked for left-liberal Democrat state representative Steve Wolens (D-Dallas), being selected as the Republican nominee.

The result will be that the Third Court of Appeals, the most powerful intermediate appellate court in Texas, stays divided 3-3. Had Garcia been elected (and Pemberton retained), the Third Court, which hears all appeals from lawsuits involving any state agency, would have been in Republican hands for the first time ever.

This court is a critical chokepoint for Democrats who want to stop or delay Republican legislative, administrative and executive reforms.

The problem is more fundamental and simple:

Right now ... Our best conservatives are not good leaders,
our best leaders are not good conservatives.

With the loss of Armey, our Texas avg Congress-critter IQ dropped by half. Now, we have DeLay in leadership; Pete Sessions is very good too. Up and comer. But we have a problem with forthright Conservative leaders.

My favorite in state govt right now is Dewhurst, but frankly Craddick must be doing soemthing right too to totally PO the liberals and the media.

I frankly see X41 as even worse politically than Cornyn,
if you go look at their overall records. Cornyn tends to
be good on some judicial issues, he at least was defending public religious expression as consistent with the 1st amendment. X41 remember gave us Rudman's Souter! Cornyn voted to cut taxes, X41 raised taxes. We have TONS of better conservatives to choose from ... WHY NOT SENATOR RON PAUL?

"I suggest X41 mainly because of the dearth of name-recognition among Texas Pubbies ..." Sadly, you prove the point of EternalVigilance, that we need 'name recognition' to go by. That is an AWFUL way to select the best person for the job. We end up self-selecting only from the same shallow gene pool of long-time pols, who are the most flea-infested lobbyist-back-scratchers that manage to give them lots of money for 'media' campaigns that misinform rather than inform the voters.

You need to cast the net wide and then find who are the BEST conservatives and the BEST leaders. Dont you realize that we have 180 elected officials in Austin? Find the top 30 conservatives. Of those, find the top 9 leaders, ie, the best 5% among the elected leaders who are both good Conservatives and COMPETENT LEADERS WHO CAN ADVANCE THE CONSERVATIVE AGENDA ... and promote THEM.

You will have 9 names that IMHO will be better than KBH, Perry, CCRS, or X41 for whatever post you are envisioning.

WHY NOT SENATOR RON PAUL?

As much as I like him, I do not think that the would stand a snowballs chance. The voters are so stupid they wouldn't understand what he was talking about and some would even be "derrrrrr Constitution?" My favorite statewides are Abbott and Patterson. I must say that as of now the bench for Texas Republicans is pretty shallow. Not many State Senators are worth a damn, and while there are some great State House members, they have so little name ID and grassroots base it makes it hard for them to make any substantial jump. There are some nice Congressmen but I don't really see any of them wanting to comeback to Austin as Governor.

My nightmare scenario is in 2006 we have Hutchison, Strayhorn, and Perry battle for the Gov mansion (I can't see Strayhorn playing second fiddle to anyone anymore and being Lite Gov) against Jim Turner on the Dem side. That would be such a fractured primary that Turner could slip on through and win. As we have seen on primary day, Republicans have no problem voting for liberals. Then on the Senate side we have an open seat. Dewhurst could run for it or maybe a sitting congressmen. Then the Dems will have a bunch of moderate white former Congressmen that are going to lose come November (Edwards would be tough) that could be a tough challenge to anyone that the R's put up. Unless they haven't learned their lesson, the Dems are not going to have another "Dream Team" ticket. Conservatives need to get prepared because 2006 could be the deciding factor on republicanism in Texas for decades to come.

I think the most important thing we can do now is to go to our SD conventions, and then the state convention, and support real conservatives for party offices.

Gina Parker will be a welcomed change as state chairman. Mark Cole will also be a solid conservative replacement for National Committeeman.

Both of these people are independent, principled conservatives who are loyal to the grassroots, not the insider machines.

Both of these people are independent, principled conservatives who are loyal to the grassroots, not the insider machines.

Agreed. And we certainly don't need another party chairman who goes around praying in front of slave kettles like Weddington and Barton do. I pinged LG on that because he recently heard something about the slave kettle's connection to the traditions of voodoo paganism from western Africa. It's some truly cultish and non-Christian stuff that Barton and Weddington were getting into with that Justice at the Gate group.

How do you know Barton were at these things. I have meet him many times and that just surprises the hell out of me.

Eyewitnesses and also at least one media report from a black community newspaper in Houston. I don't think Barton was doing as much of the shaking in the aisle like Weddington, but he was definately at some of them. I also believe he gave some sort of "historical" talk during the meetings on how Republicans are the party of civil rights.

I don't think Barton was doing as much of the shaking in the aisle like Weddington, but he was definately at some of them. I also believe he gave some sort of "historical" talk during the meetings on how Republicans are the party of civil rights.

GOPcap,

It's quite possible that Barton and Weddington had no idea of the spirit-animist origins of the "slave kettle". But the black ministers who were there will have known, and if they didn't tell their guests what they were dealing with.........

BTW, as I mentioned to you in my FReepnote, the freedmen and freedmen's sons who built houses in Third (and/or? Fourth?) Ward also did the brickwork in the streets. At certain intersections where the original brickwork is preserved (identifiable by the very high-quality, large and heavy "paving bricks", as opposed to the mere house-bricks with which the City pretended to repair such pavements later), the workmen laid patterns in which the Yoruba cosmogram that I described to you is represented in sketch-form. And the location of the cosmogram photographed by the lecturer I heard was right on top of a water-main, thus satisfying the other requirement of such signs, that they be located near water "of some sort".

So some of Houston's streets preserve pagan African symbols in their brickwork.

FYI: Email from ET re Perry:

Governor Rick Perry will be in Sugar Land on Wednesday, April 14 for a fundraising reception. We are currently seeking host couples for this fundraising event. The three levels are as follows:

Patron - $5,000 per couple
Sponsor - $2,500 per couple
Host - $1,000 per couple

If you are interested in being listed on the invitation, please fill out the attached form and fax to Leslie Sullivan at 512-478-4734. To be listed on the invitation, they need your commitment by the end of this week. Questions should be directed to Leslie at 512-478-3276.

The event will be held on Wednesday, April 14 at the home of Jim and Sharon Wilson (33 Beacon Hill in Sugar Land). The reception for Host Committee members will begin at 5:30 pm and the reception will start at 6:00 pm. If you are unable to serve on the Host Committee, reception tickets are $500 per couple or $250 per person.

Personal and PAC checks are acceptable. No corporate checks.

Nancy Boston, the Bell county chair, who NEVER endorses ANYONE, endorsed both Smith and Garcia, and worked hard to get the message out. Also, Garcia made MANY visits to Bell County, and though Smith didn't make it up there to visit personally, he was on the radio there, and sent a surrogate (me) there twice to visit with GOP groups.

Also, Bell County was Justice Smith's launching pad in 2002, and many people there remember him from that.

David Rogers

How about Michael Williams for Senate or Governor?

While Michael Williams was a strong supporter of Ernest Garcia (even guest-hosted a fundraiser), he was also a strong supporter of Paul Green. This, despite the fact that Justice Smith had invited Williams (in 1993, when Williams was a no-name) to join the Hopwood case as lead counsel.

He also plays the race card at every opportunity.

I respect Williams' conservatism. But I don't support his Jesse Jackson-style appeals to race first.

Thanks, but no thanks.

David Rogers

In Harris County (which went for Smith, but by a smaller margin than hoped for), the Smith campaign had the support, overt or otherwise, of the current and last former party chairs, and the County Judge, all of whom are, to one extent or another, Perry guys. Which just goes to show that Perry wasn't "persuading" anyone (he had no good reason to oppose Smith -- since, for instance, unlike Perry-puppet Green, Smith wasn't taking tobacco plaintiff lawyer money or pro-abort money) - Perry was just twisting arms, and the moderates and RINOs didn't want a real conservative on the Court. Smith was not supported by the Country Clubbers, but was supported by conservative Christian Republican plaintiff lawyer Mark Lanier and his allies.

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