Sharon presents two disengagement scenarios

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon presented two options for disengagement in the Gaza Strip to Likud ministers Sunday afternoon.

The first scenario calls for a complete withdrawal from Gaza, save the Philadelphia corridor; the second calls for a withdrawal from Gaza and 4 West Bank settlements, in accordance with US concessions.

Before Sharon met with his Likud ministers to discuss the disengagement plan, the cabinet held a short meeting, at which Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said that the Defense Ministry is preparing a systematic war against Hamas, especially important as Israel moves toward disengagement from Gaza.

Mofaz characterized Hamas a "strategic enemy," and said this campaign will include targeted killings, a campaign against the organization's "support infrastructure," and the sources of its financial support.

"The Defense establishment deems it important to weaken this organization, which is a strategic enemy of Israel, especially as we approach disengagement from the Gaza Strip," Mofaz said.

Mofaz said it was decided to counter the recent wave of terror with a wave of continuous pressure against the terror organizations. The bulk of this effort will be directed at Hamas and Tanzim, which Mofaz said is increasingly being supported by Hizbullah.

Referring to the one year anniversary of the US war in Iraq, Mofaz said that campaign has improved Israel's strategic balance, evident in Libya's decision to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction; Iran's decision to sign on to the additional protocol of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and allow more intrusive inspections of its nuclear program; and Syria's isolation.

Mofaz, who met in Washington last week with senior Administration officials, said he believes the American position on Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan is one of "strategic support, accompanied by questions."

On Sunday afternoon Sharon met with Likud ministers to discuss his Gaza disengagement plan.

Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told ministers that a unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip would probably strengthen terrorist motivation, especially in the West Bank. This, he said, is why Israel must not be seen as a "sucker", withdrawing without deriving some kind of political profit from the move.

Netanyahu presented three conditions, upon which he would support withdrawal:

** completion of the security fence, including major settlement blocs and the 443 highway via Modi'in to Jerusalem,

** complete Israeli sovereignty over crossings, and military freedom to act in any place against terror. Sharon convened the cabinet in order to present his disengagement plan following criticism from cabinet members that the plan was being presented to the US administration before it had been presented to the Israeli government.

Coalition chairman Gideon Sa'ar, Shin Bet head Avi Dichter and National Security Chief Giora Eiland were also present at the meeting.

Sharon is said to be presenting several different scenarios for the disengagement plan and is expected to ask the ministers for their input.

According to the report, a planned meeting between Sharon and US President George Bush will be postponed until mid-April due to the American refusal to recognize the legitimacy of major West Bank settlement blocs, such as Gush Etzion and Ma'ale Adumim, following a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

Sharon's bureau chief, Dov Weisglass, is expected to travel to the US after the meeting for further talks with the US administration about the plan. One senior diplomatic official said the US is waiting to see whether the plan has a chance of passing the cabinet before endorsing it, while the cabinet ministers are waiting to see what commitments and guarantees the US will deliver before deciding whether to support the plan.

Weisglass is expected to present the US administration with an Israeli request that they publish an announcement denying the Palestinian right of return in response to an Israeli withdrawal.

Should the US announce that the establishment of a Palestinian state pre-empts the discussion over Palestinian refugees, ministers Tzipi Livni and Silvan Shalom will support Sharon's disengagement plan, reported Army Radio Sunday.

Sharon, according to diplomatic officials, is looking for a full US endorsement of the plan; a US commitment to help garner international support for it; a public US nod that it does not expect Israel to withdraw fully to the 1967 lines but can retain the Ma'ale Adumim, Gush Etzion, and Ariel settlement blocs in the West Bank; and a promise that Israel will not come under any US pressure to consider new diplomatic initiatives until Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat is removed.

Egypt is also very keen on hearing the US response to the plan, and if the Bush administration fully endorses it, it will be interested in becoming more involved, a senior diplomatic source said.

As such, the official did not rule out the possibility of Sharon meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in the "near future." While Mubarak has stated repeatedly that he is conditioning a meeting with Sharon on progress along the Palestinian track, hearing details of an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza could give him the pretense needed to meet Sharon now.

Israeli officials said that in order to push the plan forward, Israel will need the support of moderate Arab countries, such as Jordan and Egypt – the reason Israeli officials gave for the surprise meeting with Abdullah.

Abdullah flew by helicopter on Thursday to Sharon's ranch in the Negev, where the leaders met for some three hours over lunch.

"Israel has a strong strategic relationship with Jordan," senior diplomatic officials said. "We wanted to alleviate their fears and concerns, assure them that we have no interest in undermining Hashemite rule, and are not trying to turn Jordan into a Palestinian state."

Sharon, according to these officials, said that the disengagement plan would not harm Jordan's security, and that Israel would continue to control the border crossing points from the West Bank into Jordan.

Relations with Jordan have been strained in recent months because of the construction of the security fence, which Jordan fears will push Palestinians across the border into Jordan in search of work; the prisoner deal with Hizbullah which left 80 Jordanian prisoners in Israeli jails; and the disengagement plan, which Jordan fears may destabilize the region.

The Jordanian news agency Petra quoted a palace official as saying Abdullah made clear to Sharon that Jordan would oppose unilateral actions that could harm Palestinian hopes of establishing an independent state or that would move them from their land.

Abdullah told Sharon that an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza has to be the beginning of a "comprehensive Israeli withdrawal" and not a tactical move to transfer Gaza settlers to the West Bank, Petra reported.

Sharon's meeting with Abdullah was the first since he met him last June at the Aqaba summit. Because of Sharon's unpopularity in the Arab world, Arab leaders are hesitant to meet with him because of the fear that this will be a political liability.

Diplomatic sources said that the Jordanians did not try to hide Thursday's meeting after it took place, but rather in their briefings with the Jordanian press stressed that the king discussed the Jordanian security prisoners and concerns the kingdom has about the security fence and the disengagement plan.

Regarding Sharon's planned meeting Sunday with the Likud ministers, senior officials said that the support of some of the wavering ministers is dependent on the guarantees Israel can get from the US. Weisglass, therefore, needs to know what commitments will win the ministers over before he goes to the US Monday for yet another round of "shuttle consultancy" surrounding the plan.

Sharon is expected to run into strong opposition from his ministers. Of the Likud's 13 cabinet ministers, only three of them are firmly in Sharon's corner regarding the plan: Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, Industry, Trade, and Labor Minister Ehud Olmert, and Minister-without-Portfolio Gideon Ezra. Another three are firmly opposed: Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz, and ministers-without-portfolio Natan Sharansky and Uzi Landau.

The other seven Likud ministers – Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Education Minister Limor Livnat, Health Minister Dan Naveh, Internal Security Minister Tzahi Hanegbi, Immigration Absorption Minister Tzipi Livni and Minister-without-Portfolio Meir Sheetrit are, according to political sources, "sitting on the fence."

In what could be a worrisome sign for Sharon, Livni, considered one of the more dovish of the Likud ministers, came back from a meeting in Washington with US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice with criticism of the plan.

"I don't know how I'm voting yet, but it appears to be a choice between bad and even worse" Livni told reporters. "This is a choice between encouraging terrorism and missing an opportunity, and I'm not sure which is worse."

At Sunday's meeting, Livnat is expected to present her proposal to exercise sovereignty over the West Bank settlement blocs at the same time Israel withdraws from a limited number of isolated settlements in the Gaza Strip.

Katz said he would ask Sharon to bring his unilateral disengagement plan to a vote among the 300,000 members of the Likud Party.

Landau intends to ask Sharon to bring his plan for a vote in the cabinet before he visits Washington, expected to be sometime before April 5.

Landau accused Sharon – who criticized both Transportation Minister Avigdor Lieberman for expressing his opposition to the plan to US Ambassador Dan Kurtzer and Construction and Housing Minister Effi Eitam for speaking out against the plan in Washington – of imposing a double standard on his ministers.

"How can Sharon criticize Lieberman and Eitam when he's about to go Washington to meet with Bush and ask for approval for a plan that has not even been brought to the cabinet?" officials close to Landau asked.

Landau said he is looking forward to the meeting, because ministers that have so far been silent about the plan will finally be forced to speak out.

Landau sent a letter last week to influential Likud central committee members asking them to pressure Likud ministers to oppose the plan. Sharon, for his part, sent Weisglass to meet most of the Likud ministers last week to drum up support. Weisglass is slated meet Sheetrit before Sunday's meeting.

Despite requests from Likud ministers, no vote will taken in the meeting and no security officials are expected to brief the ministers.

Several ministers have expressed hope Sharon will finally release details of the plan which he has so far kept to himself.

Unfortunately, the Israeli government seems to lack American government support to address the core issues, so it is making ineffective proposal after ineffective proposal.

Unless Jordan can be drawn into this equation to accept responsibility for those Palestinian arabs who live outside of Jordan (the eastern part of Palestine before it was lopped off), I'm afraid that no viable solution will be found. Jordan IS the Palestinian arab country, and should assume responsibility for the Palestinian arabs.

Once this is accepted, then reasonable borders can be drawn -- either leaving the entire West Bank under Israeli sovereignty in conformity with the original Balfour Declaration, or else leaving Israel with defendable borders and its major cities in the West Bank under its sovereignty.

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