President leads Kerry by wide margin in poll (Nevada)

Las Vegas Review-Journal ^ | March 21, 2004 | Erin Neff

[FRgal4u]

watch for Polls in Michigan, Arizona as well. I heard from my buddy in MI citing the Kerry numbers may begin to soften (after all the ad barrages).

I insist Bush need to carry 3 states and these 3 states will determine 75% of the odds of reelection. These three are PA, OH and FL. I bet FL is more R this time around, OH is a troublemaker but winnable on cultural issues, PA is winnable if Bush can win the cultural conservatives in SW PA. If he carries SW PA, central/rural PA in good numbers enough to balance philly, he could carry PA. IF Bush carry all these three, he can afford to lose NH, WV, NV, and MO (or AZ). I consider the chances of losing both MO and AZ together not likely, and if NV is looking more safe than previously thought, a PA/FL/OH combo will make the rest of the country just noise, pure noise in the overall campaign.

[Coop]

Encouraging for this early.

[CPT Clay]

Your post made me think. Under new Campaign Finance laws, 527's cannot run ads 60 days prior to the election.

60 days prior to the 02Nov election is during the republican convention.

Kerry will drop out and Hillery will upstage the convention.