They are led by Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber (last candidate vs. Schröder), neither of whom, IMHO, are strong enough to pull the party resolutely forward.
Remember the post from the other day when we were talking about how fast the CDU/CSU back-tracked on their own reform agenda.
The Germans are definitely paranoid, now. Polls show they don't trust the social programs anymore, and the majority feel any reform will impact their own situation negatively.
The Greens, in spite of taking it in the shorts from Schröder repeatedly, hold onto c. 10% of the voters. Even though Schröder seems to disregards their platform issues when he determines policy, the Greens will stay hitched to the SPD wagon because it's their only course to power. Since I think Schröder disregards them, I don't think they are (besides Fischer) very important re policy issues
The SPD base (28-29% now) is the big question mark. If they break rank, there will be early elections. Müntefering will hold them, somewhat, if Schröder holds off on pushing the reform issue (Of course, not doing anything isn't what Germany needs). Then they will have to pull up to around 35 - 40 % in the polls to catch up to the CDU/CSU. Any more negative economic issues, though, will mean Schröder will be forced to do something and all bets are off.
So, it looks to me like the CDU/CSU doesn't offer any real answers, and I think any bump they're getting is a result of dissatisfaction with Schröder and, therefore, not solid. The SPD is one major economic issue away from imploding. The greens are a non-entity if the SPD doesn't climb to 40 % or so.
Summing it up, the Germans are facing a hopeless situation with no one to show them the way out. I don't believe, either, that Schröder can use a flood or a US-led war to distract the electorate again.
The bottom line, then, is I don't have the faintest idea of how all this will play out.
Again, just my opinion.
longjack