Al Qaeda bluffing about having suitcase nukes, experts say

SFGate.com ^ | 3/23/04 | Anna Badhken - SF Chronicle

[NormsRevenge]

Moscow - Ayman al-Zawahri, al Qaeda's No. 2 man, has bragged that the terrorist group bought suitcase nuclear bombs from former Soviet nuclear scientists in Moscow and Central Asia, but experts on Russia's nuclear program dismiss the statements, saying Osama bin Laden's deputy is bluffing.

[NormsRevenge]

fyi

[MrB]

If Al Qaeda or any terrorist org had functional nukes, they would have used them already.

The whole point of nuclear weapons in the hands of stable states is their deterrence factor.

In the hands of terrorist orgs, they are of no value unless used.

[sfvgt]

I think these lowlifes are full of crap......they are acting like a bunch of losers talking sh!t at a ghetto corner dice game......

[billorites]

Jeez, what the heck you got in here?

[Rams82]

Maybe another nation (I won't name any names...) wants us to think Al-Qaeda has nukes... Call me crazy...

[New Perspective]

Al Qaeda bluffing about having suitcase nukes,

This is a non-story. Just ask any liberal or former klinton admin official, they seem to know who is dangerous and who is not, who has weapons and who does not, and who is evil and who is not.

[PrivateIdaho]

FYI - Your analysis on the al-Qaida No. 2:We Have Briefcase Nukes thread is supported by these experts.

[rageaholic]

If they had one, Mohammad Attah would have used it instead of airliners. If the litte fat Dr Zawari bought something from a "Soviet Scientist" its most likely some radioactive material inside a nicely made fake warhead.

Russians are smart and poor, Al Quada are stupid and rich. Similar market forces drive the booming trade in fake Icons from the former S.U.

[MJM59]

Al-Quaeda bluffing about having testicles. These people give cowards a bad name.

[Southack]

"He said the suitcase nukes have a lifespan of only one to three years because some of the materials, such as the battery and the conventional explosives that produce the charge that sets off the nuclear reaction, deteriorate over time and must be replaced. Otherwise, he said, they become radioactive scrap metal."

[AgThorn]

Yes, but, batteries and conventional explosives can be replaced ... if they could get their hands on a suitcase bomb that has a bad battery and needs it's fuse updated, that is still a scary scenario.

The stuff that doesn't last 3 years is not that hard to replace .. the stuff that last longer is.

[Travis McGee]

Ping

[Southack]

The atomic isotope used for nuclear triggers has a typical half-life of 90 days or less. The useful life for the booster isotope (normally tritium) is typically 8 years or so. The core lasts longer, of course, but you've got to have it all for it to do something more than simply fizzle into lethal short-range bursts of radiation and heat.

And even replacing the electronics and conventional explosives is more than meets the eye. You've got to avoid letting much air touch any of your heavy metals (forms rust rapidly), you can't let any vibrations shattle your fragile heavy metals (they are among the most brittle of all metals), and you can't move your core too close to your "bullet". Nor do you want to induce any electrical currents into your circuitry while you are doing your maintenance.

[Squantos]

I get a solid 8 hours of sound sleep every night..........but I do have a bad dream now and then about the possibilities. It can be done.

Stay Safe !

[Southack]

Polonium is a chemical element in the periodic table that has the symbol Po and atomic number 84. A rare radioactive metalloid, polonium is chemically similar to tellurium and bismuth and occurs in uranium ores. Polonium had been studied for possible use in heating spacecraft.

Notable Characteristics

This radioactive substance dissolves readily in dilute acids, but is only slightly soluble in alkalis. It is closely related chemically to bismuth and tellurium.

Polonium-210 is a volatile metal with 50% being vaporized in air after 45 hours at 328 K. This isotope is an alpha emitter that has a half-life of 138.39 days. A milligram of this metalloid emits as many alpha particles as 5 grams of radium.

A great deal of energy is released by its decay with a half a gram quickly reaching a temperature above 750 K. A few curies of polonium emit a blue glow which is caused by excitation of surrounding air.

Applications

When it is mixed or alloyed with beryllium, polonium can be a neutron source.

[Southack]

Beryllium-7

     

ISOTOPE    7Be
Half Life / Daughter	53.28 days to lithium-7
Major Radiation	Gamma - 477.6 keV
Form	LANL: Beryllium (II) in 1 M HCl BNL: Carbon dispersed in water or Beryllium (II) in 1 N HCl
Activity	HCl: > 1.0 mCi/ml (concentration) Carbon: 30-65 mCi/ 5 g of carbon
Radiopurity	99%
PRODUCTION
Source	BNL: Proton spallation in water and stainless steel encapsulated carbon black LANL: Proton spallation on natural zinc oxide targets
Processing	HCl: Dissolution and ion exchange Carbon: Washing carbon from stainless steel
DISTRIBUTION
Shipment	Crimp-seal bottle
Availability	Stock
Unit of Sale	Millicuries for solution form Lot for carbon form
Note: Quantity discounts may be available. Call for current discounted price.
Contacts	Oak Ridge National Laboratory

[whattajoke]

I tend to agree. I mean, we all forget that al qaeda 2 MO's in the US were 5 guys on planes with freaking box cutters and a truck bomb in NYC.

9/11 worked b/c there was no precedent. That will never work again...sorry, it won't. They blew their load that day (and were sadly effective in doing so) and even such, by the time the 4th plane was flying over PA, their plan was foiled.

F al qaeda and their stupid violence for the sake of violence. if they had nukes of any sort, we'd have seen something by now... this is not to say that they can't get them from a rogue former Soviet state. It's time to put some resources there and start cleaning up that stuff. (easier said than done, i realize.)

[AgThorn]

fascinating. Obviously, you have a lot more knowledge in this than I.

I was always under the impression that the 'triggering' material that might deteriorate would / could be something simple, or should I say more readably attainable, like c4 or the like.

Perhaps this is not possible. Which is a relief, I must say.

[Southack]

No, two different things. The conventional explosives used are very special. The CCCP had to steal our conventional explosives chemical recipe because theirs weren't handling the radioactive environment very well. And even our conventional explosives don't last that long in that environment.

The trigger, however, is typically a mixture of beryillium and polonium-210...isotopes that decay rapidly due to their short half-lives....which you need short half-lives, of course, because you want to emit lots of neutrons...really, really fast in order to get your BOOM from your chain reaction instead of just nuclear reactor-style heat and radiation.

That being said, it is CERTAIN that the terrorists will set off a dirty bomb at some point. That's basically what any of the old ex-Soviet nukes are going to be by now, at most.