Dick Morris: Kerry’s Ides of March

The Hill ^ | 3/24/04 | Dick Morris

[Jean S]

The moment of political victory or defeat most often passes unnoticed by journalists and the insiders of the respective political campaigns.

It is only in the retrospective of history that it becomes clear, and, even then, it is often distorted by the myopia of historians.

But March 2004 gives every sign of going down in history as the crucial month of the presidential campaign. It will, very possibly, be recorded as the month in which Sen. John Kerry lost the election.

Fresh from his successes in the Democratic primaries and the Super Tuesday concession of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, the Massachusetts senator jumped out to a large lead — 11 points in the Washington Post survey and eight in the Gallup Poll.

Resting on these laurels, he focused on fundraising, raking in an additional $8 million in the weeks after becoming the all-but-official nominee of his party, and on skiing, relaxing and preparing to do battle in the general election.

In the meantime, Bush pounced, taking advantage of the early selection of his opponent to unleash a barrage of attack advertisements painting Kerry as a taxer, spender, internationalist, appeaser and all-around flip-flopper.

Seeming to remember the lessons of his fellow Massachusetts Democrat, Mike Dukakis, Kerry announced that he would not let Bush define him as the first President Bush defined Dukakis. But, in fact, he reacted passively and late to the Republican thrust.

His paid media answered the taxer allegation with a lame denial and failed to answer Bush’s attacks on his sublimation of American security needs to the decisions of the United Nations and his weakness on the terrorism issue.

Kerry only compounded the problem by saying that he had voted for legislation allocating funds for the Iraq campaign before he later voted against them. While voters were trying to unravel this Casey Stengelish observation, Bush was well on the way to making Kerry unacceptable to the American voters.

Even Kerry’s counterattack, featuring a former Bush national-security aide saying that the president was distracted from a focus on terrorism by an obsolete worldview predicated on Cold War norms, worked to the president’s advantage by making terror the issue of the day.

When al Qaeda exploded bombs in Madrid, terrorism pushed the economy, healthcare, Social Security and the environment off the front pages. Countering the terrorist organization’s international offensive became the only issue in American politics.

And it is the only issue Bush wins. Even as the public was voting for Kerry by double-digit margins, it conceded, by 10 points, that Bush was the superior wartime president.

As a result, both the Zogby and Rasmussen polls have the presidential race even today after two weeks of pounding by the Bush campaign. If Bush had moved up, the closing of the gap might be ephemeral. What goes up can also go down. If the president had enhanced his ratings by a bold speech or an important policy move, the day would likely come when the impact would wear off and his ratings would slip back down again.

But the closing of the gap was made of sterner stuff. Kerry became too liberal for a significant segment of the swing voters as a result of the Bush attack commercials.

Even at this writing, Kerry is failing to answer the Bush negatives and is falling prey to their arguments. If all voters hear is the Republican characterization of Bush, that is what they will come to believe.

Kerry’s attacks on Bush matter little. Voters have spent four years studying the Republican president, and no new information is likely to sway them one way or the other. For better or worse, Bush is defined and only earth-shaking developments are going to change his image.

But Kerry is still an unknown quantity, and the jury is still out on whether or not he is too liberal for America.

By conceding the field to the Republicans in March, Kerry has likely cooked his own goose. As he soars downhill on his ski vacation, his poll numbers seem headed in the same direction.

Will voters who backed Kerry in early March and then were driven by negative ads to switch to undecided ever come back? It’s not very likely.

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Dick Morris is the author of Off With Their Heads: Traitors, Crooks, and Obstructionists in American Politics, Media, and Business.

[uncbob]

Morris is all over the political landscape and changes his tune weekly

[jern]

Wow. Last week Bush was toast. We should keep a count.

[ambrose]

Is Dickie Morris predicting victory for Bush? Ruh oh....

[Wild Irish Rogue]

Kerry is on Spring Break and looks like an absolute fool.

[donozark]

Ya. He changes sides more than Imus. What a worm Imutt turned out to be.

[Eala]

But March 2004 gives every sign of going down in history as the crucial month of the presidential campaign. It will, very possibly, be recorded as the month in which Sen. John Kerry lost the election.

Setup for "Draft Hillary?"

[billorites]

[billorites]

Kerry's not coming out of the convention as the nominee.

[Betaille]

"Morris is all over the political landscape and changes his tune weekly"
I keep hearing that attitude towards him on FR, but I don't find it true at all. His tune all along has been that Kerry is too Liberal for America, but Bush can still lose if he fails to educate americans of that fact. He was the number 1 proponent of Bush going negative against Kerry. And now it looks like he was right.

[Heff]

There is one thing Dick Morris ignores...the stupidity of nearly 50% of the voting Americans. They are so easily moved by the Liberal Media and Hollyweird.

I for one, will not stop working until the last polling location is closed.

The fact that our President's "polling" numbers are not in the mid-60's just blows my mind. America, the Beautiful, is quickly America, the stupid, ignorant, selfish, and blindly left. I hope the they wake up soon from their ignorance-nap. God Bless the USA and George Bush

[ServesURight]

Nah, those toes are too good for Morris. He need to chomp on these:

LOL! That'll cause many a FReeper to vomit at their screen.

[MrsEmmaPeel]

I thought Kerry's tumble on the slopes a bad omen for him (particularly after boasting he never falls).
I see it as a metaphor on his part in the Presidential race: bluster, stumbling and then falling .... off unto historical obscurity.

[NYC Republican]

LOLOL!!!

[MrsEmmaPeel]

I filed a complaint on your picture. That was just too disgusting!

[11th Earl of Mar]

LOL!!! [yuck!]

[wtc911]

Takes a brave soul to post a self portrait....

[donozark]

How did you get a pic of Hellary's feet?

[mystery-ak]

My b-i-l is a podiatrist...he can help you.

[donozark]

Morris does have some "issues" now doesn't he? In all honesty, I must admit I always listen to the guy. He is sorta funny and the story of Klintler knocking little Dicky off the porch was to die for!

[lawdude]

Hillary?

[OESY]

I keep hearing that attitude towards him on FR, but I don't find it true at all. His tune all along has been that Kerry is too Liberal for America, but Bush can still lose if he fails to educate americans of that fact. He was the number 1 proponent of Bush going negative against Kerry. And now it looks like he was right.

Absolutely right. A careful reading of what Morris is saying would show he's giving stage directions to the Bush campaign on how to get out there and define Kerry early. Team Bush may have planned that all along, but when they delivered, it worked. Meanwhile, Morris keeps us informed about the campaign dynamics. He's honest enough not to pander and insightful enough to our interest up.

[ALOHA RONNIE]

NEVER FORGET


JOHN KERRY returned from Vietnam to call American Soldiers fighting for the Freedom of others there...


...TERRORISTS.

http://www.TheAlamoFILM.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1320



MEL GIBSON was inspired to finally make his ultimate story of Love and sacrifice "PASSION of the Christ" while filming the real story of American Soldiers fighting for the Freedom of others in Vietnam titled...


.."WE WERE SOLDIERS"

http://www.TheAlamoFILM.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=39081


I wonder who got the Story right..?



Signed:.."ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer / Vet-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com

http://www.lzxray.com/guyer_collection.htm
(Battle of IA DRANG-1965 Photos)


NEVER FORGET

[redwhiteandblue]

"Wow. Last week Bush was toast. We should keep a count."

What did Dickie write last week?

I'm still betting on Dick's pick for the Democratic nomination... Dick Gephart

[Lancey Howard]

Kerry's not coming out of the convention as the nominee.

I agree. Think "Torricelli".

[radiohead]

That'll cause many a FReeper to vomit at their screen.

Good googa mooga. I have got to stop eating dinner while I freep.

[donozark]

THE HILL-Jan.20, Morris said Bush must pullout troops from Iraq or he won't get re-elected. I just don't agree with that. Casualty rate has much more to do with voters.

He was right about Edwards being a stronger candidate than Kerry, IMO. However, even Edwards can't carry the South. When Edwards rushed home to DC to vote in favor of AW Ban extension, his goose was cooked.

Morris seems to vacillate on occasion, but I do enjoy his commentary and his stories on Klinton-"the early years," are a riot!

[ladyinred]

What is Imus's current side? I heard him say on CSPAN the other morning that Kerry was "His guy". I don't like Imus, and seldom watch. (we don't get his radio show in our area)

[Betaille]

My point is just that his point has been consistent about the election. Kerry is in fact too Liberal for America... but Bush is in trouble if he can't show americans that. If you can find him having an opposing view on that, show me. I think he is quite consistent though, I think some Freepers just don't like that he isnt always saying "bush is going to win".

[AUH2OY2K]

Only a schizophrenic could appreciate Kerry's positions on the issues

[Samwise]

Bush was well on the way to making Kerry unacceptable to the American voters.

Correction: Kerry made Kerry unacceptable to the American voters.

[TC Rider]

Ya. He changes sides more than Imus. What a worm Imutt turned out to be.

Imus will admit in December, if not sooner that he voted for Bush.

I think his current support for Kerry is a coldly calculated move to provide some point of conflict on the show with Bernie and Chuck.

And of course, Imus could teach Kerry a few things about flip-flopping.

[VRWC For Truth]

Nope, it's Hillary. Smoke and mirrors.

[aShepard]

So Dick climbed the ladder, lifted the grate from his sewer, wet his finger, and let it tell him how the wind was blowing.

I sure wish that I could get a high paying job for doing and knowing absolutely nothing!

[hershey]

Kerry's camp said he was ending his vacation and going back on the campaign trail tomorrow...the loser.

[Petronski]

Morris is all over the political landscape and changes his tune weekly.

Yeah, definitely. And he's kind of a drama queen, too.

[lake5732]

About a month ago I heard Dick Morris on one of the national radio talk shows – I think it may have been Hugh Hewitt, but not sure. Anyway, during an open phones session a caller asked him whom he supported as President? Dick replied that he had voted for Gore, but the events of 9/11 made him pleased that Bush was in the White House. He further stated that since that time he has woken up every morning with 9/11 on his mind and thinks terrorism is the primary issue facing our country and because of that he plans to do everything he can to support President Bush.

I’ve watch and heard Morris for the past several years on numerous programs and have never heard him speak with such clarity, seriousness, and sincerity. Even the program host was amazed at Morris’ frank reply.

[Dave Olson]

I'm still betting on Dick's pick for the Democratic nomination... Dick Gephart

If Gephart finished higher in the primaries, I'd agree. But he had little support from the start and dropped out early. The Dims have gathered around Kerry, just because they think he's "electable". So, even though Gephart has more real substance to him, I don't think they'll hitch their wagon to someone they see as a loser.

[jaycee]

Hillary's feet???????????

[jaycee]

Speaking of Kerry's tumble, has anyone heard the liberal media say anything about calling his Secret Service Agent a S.O.B.???? I haven't and don't guess I will~~~~~~~~~

[savedbygrace]

I agree. Think "Torricelli".

Now you got me craving Italian food.

(What? Tetrazini? . . . Never mind.)

[bobo1]

Dickie is like every one else I hear or read. You chew the meat and you spit out the bones.

Blessings, Bobo

[redwhiteandblue]

"If Gephart finished higher in the primaries, I'd agree. But he had little support from the start and dropped out early. The Dims have gathered around Kerry, just because they think he's "electable". So, even though Gephart has more real substance to him, I don't think they'll hitch their wagon to someone they see as a loser."

Hey there Dave,
I was kidding... Clearly Gephart is out, I only wanted to make the case that Dick Morris has been wrong before... very wrong. I still love reading his stuff though.

[donozark]

Yes, you may be correct-all "ratings issue." It just jacked me up that IMAN tossed in the towel when the going got rough for GWB. He had been a Bush supporter but caved when all the Dims were pounding incessantly on Bush. What a weenie.

Was also distressed to hear Bo Deetle was a personal friend of Kerry. I tuned out some time ago...

[donozark]

Please see post 44.

[donozark]

Well, only minor difference of opinion here. However, Feb.20- NEWSMAX -Morris said "GOP in danger of extinction." Further:"...Bush must run up a down escalator just to stay even."

Today-NY POST-posted here on FR by Kattracks-A Bush Blowout in the making; by Dick Morris-"...I have doubted the conventional wisdom that this election would be close. If Bush continues to stay on the offensive and Kerry's responses remain as inept as they've been, the Massachusetts Democrat will go downhill faster than he is now doing on his skiing vacation."

Morris further says, "...This Democrat is not ready to run for president, and the more the Republicans press him, the more he will self-destruct. His campaign advisers are hoping that a few hours extra sleep on his ski trip will restore his political judgment, but they ignor the fact that he never had a lot to begin with."

Consistent? Inconsistent? Just hope Morris is right THIS time!

[COURAGE]

Hey! You! Dick! Rasmussen Twist: Kerry Leads Bush by 3, Shift of 6 Points vs. Yesterday

[Qwinn]

"I keep hearing that attitude towards him on FR, but I don't find it true at all. His tune all along has been that Kerry is too Liberal for America, but Bush can still lose if he fails to educate americans of that fact. He was the number 1 proponent of Bush going negative against Kerry. And now it looks like he was right."

Sorry, but I can't help it.

Look what Dickie is saying today.

"Dubya In Trouble
By Dick Morris

Both of the polling organizations that track the presidential race in daily surveys have concluded that the contest has settled into a stalemate. Scott Rasmussen reports that for eight of the last nine days, President Bush has gotten 45 to 46 percent of the vote, while Sen. John Kerry ranged from 44 to 46 percent. John Zogby shows Kerry ahead by three and reports little movement either way.

This "tie" is terrible news for the Bush camp.

One of the (very few) immutable laws of politics is that the undecided vote almost always goes against the incumbent. Consider the past seven presidential elections in which an incumbent ran (1964, '72, '76, '80, '84, '92, and '96) - that is, look at the final vote versus the last Gallup or Harris polls. My analysis shows that the challengers (Goldwater, McGovern, Carter, Reagan, Mondale, Perot, Clinton, and Dole) got 85 percent of the undecided vote. Even incumbents who won got only 15 percent of those who reported that they were undecided in the final polls.

So . . . when Bush and Kerry are tied, the challenger really has the upper hand.

More bad news for Bush: Democrats usually grow 2-3 points right before Election Day as downscale voters who have not paid much attention to the election, suddenly tune in and "come home" to their traditional Democratic Party moorings. Remember, virtually every poll (except Zogby) showed Bush slightly ahead of Al Gore as the 2000 election approached - yet Gore outpolled Bush by 500,000 votes.

---

Now maybe you know why we say he changes his tune on a regular basis ;)

Qwinn