How Election 2004 is Shaping Up

Both parties now have their presidential nominees, and in many cases, both parties now have their nominees for congressional elections as well. The mantra of pundits from both parties is that "a lot can change between now and November." I submit, probably not.

President Bush mow has a lead between two points to eight points in every poll during the last two weeks, and some of those polls do not include Ralph Nader as a candidate. Notably also, these polls show results extremely close to what polls showed in election heats more than six months ago in September 2003. Nearly everyone who intends to vote has made up his mind.

The Kerry Surge faded very fast. Why? Voters wanted to give Kerry an honest look. His military record and his more presidential demeanor contrasted sharply with Howard Dean. Was he fundamentally different than Howard Dean? If he was, Americans would give him the benefit of the doubt.

He flubbed that chance fast. Kerry told Americans that foreign leaders wanted him to beat President Bush. Then Kerry compounded that error by saying that foreign business leaders wanted him to beat President Bush. Then he qualified, equivocated and savaged a citizen at one of his town meetings. Kerry began to look like a Leftist puppet to defeat Bush.

Once Leftists could confuse enough swing voters for a period just long enough so that genuine Leftists, like Kerry, could win elections without serious critique. This was before Fox News, talk radio and the internet. Now conservatives can get information to their base much faster than Leftists can send propaganda to their sheep.

The consequence is that large numbers of voters are now increasingly committed to voting against John Kerry, no matter what President Bush says or does. These intensely biased establishment Leftist media has no impact on voters anymore.

The victory of Arnold Schwarzenegger was probably the decisive defeat for the Leftist media. Gray Davis was obviously slime. Arnold was clearly a moderate and his life was an inspirational story of hope. The Leftist media, simply because Schwarzenegger was a Republican, fired salvo after salvo against him.

If this tactic did not work in liberal and Democrat California, a state driven by mass media, then it was not going to work anywhere at anytime again. The Republican landslide in the recall election and the Republican victories in the state questions a few weeks ago showed that the people trusted the Republican Governor Schwarzengger than it trusted the Democrat media.

Sixty percent of American voters are self-identified conservatives. The more dirty punches Kerry and the Left throw at Bush, the more likely these angry conservatives are to vote on election day to reelect the president. The Left is doing what Bush had trouble doing: galvanizing his base.

Kerry can moderate his tone, say warm and fuzzy things about American values and indicate greater toughness before terrorism, but that will win very few votes - why vote for a pale imitation of President Bush? - and it will push voters to support Ralph Nader. Waffling will make Kerry look indecisive.

Democrats also have taken too much false hope from public opinion polls. Kerry and other Democrats also are about to learn what Republicans learned over the last fifty years: opinion polls do not win elections.

Only two Democrats since the end of the Civil War have won a majority of all votes cast in presidential elections - LBJ in 1964 and FDR in his four elections (Carter in 1976 received only a majority of the vote cast for candidates, not a majority of all ballots cast for president.)

Six Democrat presidents never received a majority of the popular vote - Cleveland, Wilson, Truman, Kennedy, Carter and Clinton - and half of those Democrats were two term presidents. Elections are won in the Electoral College. State polls are showing more and more that President Bush will be win again.

Democrats won many more House races than their percentage of the popular vote for House candidates. Congressional districts allowed Republicans to actually get more votes for their congressional candidates in some general elections while Democrats elected hefty majorities in the House of Representatives.

Public opinion polls mean almost nothing in Senate races: Wyoming has the same number of senators as California. Most states are Republican and conservative, and the advantage Democrats look held as conservatives in the South is forever gone. Southern contests are now between conservative Republicans and less conservative Democrats.

The built-in advantages that Democrats long had in Congress have vanished completely. Congressional districts are neutral or favor Republicans; the Solid South is long gone; incumbency now favors Republicans, not Democrats.

The nuts and bolts of the presidential election also favor President Bush. He only needs to carry those states that he carried in the 2000 Election and Bush will win reelection with eight electoral votes to spare. New state polls in states President Bush carried last time show him opening up wider leads over Kerry.

Old polls show President Bush trails slightly in Florida and Ohio, but these polls were taken when Kerry had a wider lead nationally than in those old polls. New polls, reflecting the national switch of seven percentage points or so, will show both states leaning Republican. Two older polls even showed President Bush leading Kerry in Michigan and Pennsylvania. New polls will show this "must win" Kerry states too close to call.

The huge lead that President Bush now has in "Red" states means that he and Kerry will avoid the South and the traditionally Republican states of the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions. The Republican presidential landslide in those safe states will ripple into congressional elections.

Congressional districts, not generic ballots, will determine who controls the House of Representatives. The huge redistricting win in Texas, along with the large number of incumbent Republicans and the fund-raising advantage of these incumbents, means that Republicans will pick up House seats in Election 2004.

The huge lead that Bush has in South and safe Republican "Red" represent nearly all the close Senate races - Oklahoma, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Florida and Arkansas - and the more Kerry is perceived as Leftist, the harder it will be for Democrats to win those Senate races. These means Republicans will gain Senate seats.

As it becomes clear that President Bush will win reelection with increased majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, his foreign and domestic critics will jump on his bandwagon: much better to gain his favor before the election than to try to gain it after his reelection.

Nations banking on a Bush loss and acting accordingly will have to do an abrupt about face before the election or risk four long years with the most powerful political leader in the world quietly hostile to them. This will produce a flurry of pleasant state visits by foreign leaders to Washington before November. Imagine Schroeder or Putin embracing Bush at the end of a cosmetically perfect state visit! Suddenly Bush the Outcast becomes Bush the Great Statesman.

Business will also take heart from the reelection of Republicans to power and to the restoration of international harmony among the democracies. That will send the stock market up, consumer confidence up, tax revenues up and support for President Bush domestically up as well.

Election 2004 is shaping up already. President Bush has withstood everything that the Democrats can throw at him. Soon he will begin to punch back, and his enemies, here and abroad, will reach for the ropes or throw in the towel.

Sixty percent of American voters are self-identified conservatives.

The poll numbers I've seen pit the numbers at 34% Conservative and 17% Liberal.

If this 60% estimate were true, I would imagine no Democrat would have ever been elected to any major office in the last 15 years.

Certainly. The "closer" this race appears, the more likely conservatives are to get off their duffs and to the polls.

Motivating the base to actually vote is the biggest challenge (it always is). Only 50% of voters actually vote. Whoever gets more people to the polls stands a better chance of winning (if get out the vote efforts are made in states that are actually in play).

The Demorats use "knock and drag" efforts to bring voters to the polls (stopping by the same house up to 3 times on election day to intimidate voters into submitting). We also know that they will steal votes (dead voters, illegal voters, etc.).

If this looks like a challenge conservative are more likely to rise to the challenge.

I suggest that anyone who can vote early do so (whether that is by mail or more importantly if your community allows you to go to the polls up to a month early). Here in Texas there is no reason needed to appear in public at an early balloting poll (there is a list of requirements to vote by mail).

Voting early means not having to worry about health problems, traffic, weather, natural or man made disaster keeping you from the polls. Every vote counts. Make it so.

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