Posted on 03/29/2004 9:03:16 AM PST by presidio9
Not so long ago the religious right was rumored to be on the ropes. But then came gay marriage, a bare breast at the Super Bowl, a challenge to "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance, and the attacks on Mel Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ."
Now Christian conservatives have quite a few things to rally around. And if the campaign's two other big issues - the economy and Iraq (news - web sites) - don't break plainly President Bush (news - web sites)'s way, the social issues Christians care about could still re-elect him.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments Wednesday on whether public school children can say the Pledge of Allegiance with the words "under God." A decision could come before November.
Justice Antonin Scalia (news - web sites) recused himself for having said publicly that changes to the pledge should be made democratically. That's upped the odds that "under God" will lose.
It's also dramatized the cultural conflict between Christian conservatives and secular liberals.
"It's possible you could have a 4-to-4 vote, which would then leave as law the lower federal court ruling that takes the pledge out because of the words 'under God,' " said former presidential candidate Gary Bauer (news - web sites), now president of American Values. "That could be an incredible galvanizing decision if the president chooses to use it."
Evangelical Revival?
Other issues also could help Bush avoid a 2000 replay. That year, by some estimates, 4 million white evangelicals didn't vote in the presidential election.
"If you look at the electoral model, there should have been 19 million of them. Instead, there was 15 million," Bush political adviser Karl Rove said in 2001. "We may have failed to mobilize them."
The impact was huge. Exit polls showed that among white religious right voters, Bush got 80% of the votes vs. just 18% for Vice President Al Gore (news - web sites). Among everyone else, Gore won 54% to 42%.
Rove said the campaign's message of inclusion might have turned off Christian conservatives, whom he described as "xenophobic." He also said some Christian conservatives might have given up on politics.
"I think we may be seeing to some degree . . . a return to the sidelines of some of these previously politically involved religious conservatives," he said in 2001.
Christian activists give other reasons for the low turnout. There were no galvanizing social issues in 2000. Gore wasn't Bill Clinton (news - web sites).
At the same time, many conservative Christians weren't convinced Bush was any more devout than his father. A late-breaking story on Bush's 1976 drunk driving arrest didn't help. And no one expected the big Democratic turnout and the resulting squeaker.
Things are different this year.
"Now after four years, the president has more of a record on things like partial-birth abortion," Bauer said. "This time around, there's a good chance for a more robust turnout among value-driven voters."
Religious Groups Wane
The waning fortunes of some top Christian political groups seem to confirm Rove's earlier assessment. The Family Research Council and the Christian Coalition have lost the heft they boasted in the days when they were headed by Bauer and Pat Robertson, respectively.
But that might actually be a sign that the Christian right has moved beyond awareness raising and is now fully engaged politically.
"The evangelical voting bloc has already been so thoroughly mobilized into the Republican Party that having a really strong and well-organized group to get them behind Republican candidates is not as important or necessary as it may have been 20 years ago," said Geoff Layman, professor of political science at Vanderbilt University.
"This president is, for all intents and purposes, one of them," Layman said. "He's an evangelical. His policies are supported by evangelicals. I don't see any evidence thus far that he's not trying to appeal to the base and that they wouldn't be enthusiastic about supporting him."
Cultural Divide Widens
Perhaps now more than ever, Christian conservatives see the left's agenda as a barely disguised attack on their beliefs. Attacks on "The Passion," the push for gay marriage, and Howard Dean (news - web sites)'s repeated rants against "fundamentalist preachers" seem to make that plain.
"It's an amazing unfolding of forces in America right now," said Bob Knight (news - web sites) of Concerned Women for America. "The gaps are so deep. There's a clarifying going on."
Knight says public opposition to gay marriage can help Bush beat Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), if Bush is bold enough to make it an issue.
"Both of them would leave it up to the states to create civil unions, which is gay marriage by another name," Knight said. "So if the president wants to really distinguish himself from John Kerry, he needs to more forcefully defend marriage itself."
At least this time, no one is taking a Bush victory for granted.
"I feel there's an urgency that Christians should vote this time more than ever," said Roberta Combs, president of the Christian Coalition. "Bush is going to have to work hard. I think it's going to be a very close race."
I hope this has a clarifying effect-18% is too high! Those people are throwing their votes away on a platform directly opposed to what they claim to believe.
Well, that's a smart thing for a strategist to say publicly. [/sarcasm]
This is only partly correct. It's certainly a cultural conflict, but it's also a religious war, since liberalism has basically become a religion to its adherents. Take a look at The Church of the Left by Stanley Kurtz from three years ago and see if it doesn't describe modern liberalism exactly.
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