I had lunch today with a major Aluminum Company power manager (whose aluminum refinery is still operating--since there are only two in the BPA service territory and I know them both very well), that should narrow it down quickly. What he told me was that he thinks it will be quite a while before natural gas prices come down to levels where most folks can afford the resulting power even from very very efficient CCCT's
I talked to the guy in my office who does long term powerplant feasibility studies and helps various utilities secure bonds to allow them to build power plants. He also see natural gas costs as remaining high for quite a while. I would note that about a weak ago, I think I saw were Reliant got into some trouble for overstating its natural gas reserves, if I remember correctly.
You were right about being a hot day in Seattle, it was nice to get outside and have a business lunch. Have fun.
[Updated at 4:55 p.m.] Unusually hot weather in Southern California led the California Independent System Operator on Monday afternoon to issue a Stage 1 Electrical Emergency for the state.
Power plant operators were being asked to restrict maintenance and keep as many facilities available to meet needs, said Gregg Fishman, a spokesman for California ISO.
"This is specifically related to Southern California's weather," Fishman said. "Our load is as much as 1,100 megawatts over forecast."
Temperatures were soaring Sunday and Monday around San Diego. Record highs in the 90s were set in Riverside, Yorba Linda, Santa Ana and El Cajon on Sunday and remained high Monday.
At the same time, several plants in Southern California were off for maintenance work Monday. Fishman said the upkeep is usually done at this time of year, but the unseasonably warm temperatures have created a strain on the power grid. Restricting maintenance is one of the first steps when power supplies are tight, he added.
Stage 1 is a low-priority emergency. The ISO declares Stage 1 emergencies when reserves fall to between 6 and 7 percent. A Stage 2 emergency is issued when the reserves are at about 5 percent. Stage 3 emergencies -- the most urgent -- occur when reserves fall below 1.5 percent.
Fishman said the weather will determine if more Stage 1 emergencies will be issued this week.