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Posted on 04/01/2004 7:13:06 PM PST by Rams82
NO MATTER how the dispute over Taiwan's presidential election is resolved, it has become increasingly clear that the 'One China' principle is unravelling.
The concept of One China has dominated Asian international relations for 30 years as the centrepiece of Beijing's foreign policy and a mainstay in the foreign policies of the United States and most nations in Asia and Europe - though there has never been a widely accepted definition of what it means.
Today, Beijing says One China means Taiwan belongs to China. The US says the question of Taiwan's sovereignty is unsettled. Japan, which ruled Taiwan from 1895 to 1945, has renounced its claim to the island but takes no position on its sovereignty. Seoul, with expanding economic ties to China, tends to favour Beijing's definition. Many other nations are equally ambivalent and have ambiguous policies.
The people of Taiwan are split, which has eroded the One China concept. The election showed that 50 per cent favour the independence sought by the incumbent President, Mr Chen Shui-bian. His opponents have challenged the election results, but even if the vote is overturned in court, it will still show that half of the voters agreed with President Chen.
The other half who voted for Mr Lien Chan of the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, are further divided among those who favour the status quo of separation from mainland China without formal independence, those who are undecided, and a small percentage who want Taiwan to join the People's Republic of China.
This is a marked shift. Before the election, polls showed that about one third of the people in Taiwan favoured independence, while another third contended that the status quo was the safest choice. Some scholars have estimated that 75 to 80 per cent of the voters would opt for independence if the avowed military threat from China disappeared.
President Chen, in an interview with the BBC, went further, contending: 'Taiwan is one country and the other side is another country and neither side exercises jurisdiction over the other, and I think this important consensus has been reached during this election.'
The Bush administration, which says it has a One China policy, nonetheless took the initiative in issuing a statement congratulating the voters in Taiwan 'on the successful conclusion' of their election. The White House added, 'we congratulate Mr Chen on his victory'.
Beijing quickly saw that statement for what it was, a US recognition that Mr Chen and his government are the legitimate, elected governors of Taiwan. The Chinese denounced Washington's 'incorrect act' and accused the US of violating the One China principle and 'interfering in China's internal affairs'.
Around President George W. Bush, the advisers who call themselves the Vulcans, after the Roman god of fire, have long been sceptical of policies they think favour China. Thus, they scorn the One China doctrine except for expedient statements intended, for instance, to persuade Beijing to support the war on terror.
The Vulcans, according to a new book by writer James Mann, a long-time correspondent in China and Washington, include Vice-President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, Assistant Secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice.
American conservatives, such as those associated with the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute, have begun to question more vigorously the validity of the One China concept. They have argued for recognising the government of Taiwan and establishing diplomatic relations with Taipei instead of the present unofficial ties.
More support for normal relations with Taiwan has come from members of Congress. Representative Robert Andrews, Democrat of New Jersey, said recently that if the people of Taiwan rejected integration into China, 'then we should recognise Taiwan as a free and independent state'. Similarly, Representative Steve Chabot, Republican of Ohio, asserted that the US 'treats Taiwan as an independent country'. 'We deal with Taiwan economically, militarily, strategically, politically, diplomatically, commercially, and in every other way, as separate from China.'
Mr Chabot concluded: 'It may be impolite to say so, but One China is a fiction - and a dangerous fiction - that most of the international community has bought into in order to mollify China.'
Perhaps the most stark assessment of One China has come from the International Crisis Group of independent, non-profit researchers. It has published a series of reports that it says demonstrate that 'for all practical purposes, the One China approach that has helped stabilise the region for three decades is dead'.
Celebration time.
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Right on up until "middle income" wages in the States are back down to $2.25/hr.
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