Republicans Have a Hot Race in the 4th CD (Wisconsin)

WisPolitics Interview ^ | 3/23/2004 | 2004 WisPolitics Publishing

[Amish]

The mere appearance of House Speaker Dennis Hastert at Corey Hoze's recent kickoff fundraiser at the University Club in Milwaukee was a signal that the race for Rep. Jerry Kleczka's 4th Congressional District seat may not be the slam dunk some Democrats think.

"I'm an old coach. I believe you got to be on offense wherever you can. And when you're on offense, you put the other guys on defense a little bit,'' Hastert said. "There's movement here.''

He admits that now that Oklahoma's J.C. Watts is gone, Hoze would be a "feather in our cap'' for House and national Republicans. "We lost a great asset. If Corey could step in, we need him as a presence in our conference, and we're going to do everything we can to help him get (to Congress). ... I think he does have a chance to do it.''

Hoze said a victory by him would "totally change the landscape'' because an African-American would win for the first time in a truly urban district. "This can really shock the country, and send a real message across the country that some of the seats that Republicans have kind of written off ... we can pull it off.''

"We're going to surprise some folks," said Hoze, adding a coalition of Republicans and Democrats in the district could make him the state's first African-American congressman.

"I'm going to be getting African-American votes," said Hoze, noting the district's strong minority numbers

[Amish]

Interesting Race, but definitely an uphill one...

http://www.coreyhozeforcongress.com/

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[Dan from Michigan]

Good luck. I'd like to see a little more offense going on. If the dems are caught looking and have to spend a little more money, they won't go after some of the marginal seats in other areas like Michigan's 7th(open) and 11th(freshman rep) districts.

[Amish]

RE the Michigan races...

From recent polls, looks like RINO Schwartz may not be a run away in Mich 7th. Brad Smith (Nick's son) seems to be picking up some steam, and would be my guess for RTL endorsement. We may not have conservatives splitting up things as badly as I'd feared. Time will tell.

In the 11th, McCotter ran pretty well and a non-incumbent. Is he really at risk in his sophomore race?

[jocon307]

I'd urge all to read the full article. Hoze comes off sounding like a really good, smart guy. I know nothing about Wisconsin politics, but I'd say he makes good points in his favor.

[Dan from Michigan]

I'm generally cautious. The 8th district is also a marginal one as well, but Mike Rogers sent a message in 02 winning every city or township outside of East Lansing. He even won the City of Lansing and Lansing Township, not to mention that he gets the best numbers of anybody in Livingston County(which is how he won in 2000).

From recent polls, looks like RINO Schwartz may not be a run away in Mich 7th. Brad Smith (Nick's son) seems to be picking up some steam, and would be my guess for RTL endorsement. We may not have conservatives splitting up things as badly as I'd feared. Time will tell.

First, I have relatives named Schwartz, so I'm nitpicking. The RINO's name is Joe Schwarz(without the t).

I don't know what's going to happen, but Ted Nugent endorsed Gene DeRossett(who is doing the best fundraisingwise). Will the rest follow? I expect DeRossett to be the establishment choice.

In the 11th, McCotter ran pretty well and a non-incumbent. Is he really at risk in his sophomore race?

The 11th is just a tough district with a lot of independents and soccer moms. Livonia is the biggest city there and McCotter does well there(his home), and Western Oakland County is solidly Republican, as is Northville(Granholm's home and she lost it). Plymouth and Canton(2nd biggest city) are more and more squishy though, and Van Buren, Belleville, Wayne, Garden City, and Westland(3rd biggest city) are very strong democrat areas.

[irish guard]

This seat has been democrap since Clem Zablocki a million years ago. Most of the district was located on the south side of Milwaukee. When Wisconsin lost one Congressman due to the census, the district got a little bigger and included some interesting suburban areas that skew Republican. This would be a great, if not shocking pickup, since it has been in the Dems hands for so many years.

[Amish]

Thanks...however, Bush was blown away in this district, according to Almanac of American Politics....so I'm not optimistic.

Perhaps a nice bloody Dem primary would help?

[irish guard]

Bush was blown away before the redistricting took place. Also, the departing Congressman, Gerald Kleczka, had a little drinking problem that plagued him in recent years. The district is a part of Milwaukee County that elected a Republican to the office of County Executive a few years ago. While I am not overly optimistic, it could go Republican if the wrong guy runs for the Demmies.....However, it is not an area that is densely populated by blacks. In addition, Milwaukee blacks are the Jesse Jackson blacks, completely hooked to the welfare state mentality.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bush was blown away before the redistricting took place."

---

Actually, Bush was blown away under the current district lines (he got 30.3%). Before redistricting, the north Milwaukee 5th district held by Tom Barrett was heavily black and even more heavily Democrat (the district was 42.9% black and Bush got 31.0%), while the south Milwaukee district held by Jerry Kleczka (which included Republican suburbs in Waukesha County) gave Bush 51.0%.

For more on the district and Hoze's candidacy, see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-campaign2002/1111388/posts