Specter Upset in the Making?

Wall Street Journal ^ | April 07, 2004 | John Fund

[Amish]

Wall Street Journal: Specter Upset in the Making?

By John Fund

Article

Wednesday, April 07, 2004

Two new polls in the hotly contested GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania represent potential trouble for incumbent Arlen Specter.

A Survey USA poll taken for three Pennsylvania TV stations shows the moderate Senator Specter leading conservative Rep. Pat Toomey by only 46% to 40% among voters "certain to vote" in the April 27 primary. Another survey by Quinnipiac University found Mr. Specter with a 52% to 37% lead among all Republicans. Both polls have Mr. Specter hovering around the critical 50% mark, below which an incumbent is viewed as in serious trouble.

While Mr. Specter retains a lead and has three more weeks in which he can empty his $9 million campaign warchest, he will survive only if he retains the loyalty of conservatives despite a voting record that reflects hostility to pro-lifers, spending hawks and most tax cuts. Among the conservative voters who constitute Mr. Toomey's base, Mr. Specter leads by 46% to 43%. But that could change if voters learn more about Mr. Toomey and his critique of the Specter voting record. The Quinnipiac survey found that a full 39% of potential primary voters don't know enough about Mr. Toomey to have an opinion of him.

If Mr. Toomey can reach those voters with his message in the next three weeks, he has a good chance of pulling off a major upset.

[Tribune7]

ping

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[Asclepius]

If Mr. Toomey can reach those voters with his message in the next three weeks, he has a good chance of pulling off a major upset.

My last act before I depart for Canada will be to vote for Toomey.

[GregB]

Go Pat Go!!!!!

[daddyOwe]

If Specter loses the race in Pa. Will the fact that he does hold some power hurt the Party in the Senate. What I mean will there be a loss because of his long tenure.

[dead]

I hope Toomey turns him Arlen Spectator.

[Stentor]

My last act before I depart for Canada will be to vote for Toomey.

You running a load of garbage up there?

[monkeywrench]

Yes, for the rats.

[Cold Heat]

The rumor is that GWB is going to go and back Spector during a campaign stop, which should save him.

That is the rumor. He usually backs incumbants.

[Bommer]

If Specter loses the race in Pa. Will the fact that he does hold some power hurt the Party in the Senate. What I mean will there be a loss because of his long tenure.

Yes. It will be a blow to all RINO's (See McCain) as well to the rule of Scottish Law!

[Cicero]

Specter has repeatedly used his leadership position to undermine the Republicans. It would be well worth while getting rid of him.

If it's true that many conservatives still don't know about Toomey, I don't know how much can be done at this point to fix it. Specter has most of the money and the media. Toomey needs some kind of grass-roots campaign to get the word out and to counter the impending propaganda onslaught.

[dead]

It won't hurt the party. Some less liberal GOP Senators will just move up a notch on the party tenure list. Toomey will slide in at the bottom.

This will probably mean a little less pork flowing PA's way, but conservatives don't (shouldn't, anyway) care about that.

[guitfiddlist]

Wouldn't that be great. The voters "Get Smart" and take down SPECTRE. I'll be a monkey's U.N.C.L.E.

[dead]

The rumor is that GWB is going to go and back Spector during a campaign stop, which should save him.

Between now and the 27th?

If true, that would be pretty obnoxious.

[BroncosFan]

Bob Novak just seemed to confirm this rumor on CNN. It'll be a truly disgusting moment if it occurs. Nominally backing is one thing -- don't like it, but I understand
it -- a campaign-saving appearance is different.

[Lancey Howard]

I heard the latest Specter radio ad today where he really smears Toomey, but good. The ad's narrator says that Toomey claimed during the debate that his parents would have to "move out of Pennsylvania because of unaffordable health-care costs", but then later claimed that his parents actually live in Rhode Island. ("Down the road a bit", adds the narrator).

Then, the ad goes on to say that Toomey wondered aloud during the debate if he would be able to draw a paycheck from rhe bar he owns. "A bar", the narrator says, "which Toomey used to claim he didn't have anything to do with! A bar where drunks hang out and drug deals are made."

The final piece of the ad says that "Toomey is wrong about Arlen Specter on spending, too. Senator Specter has cut $24 billion this year alone", etc.

The ad finishes up with Arlen saying that he has "approved this ad". It is one brutal attack ad, let me tell you. It is very polished and well done, as attack ads go.

What it tells me is that Specter is panicking. And he should be, because he is in deep, deep trouble.

[Cold Heat]

That is the truth according to Robert Novac.

Personally, I would let him die at the polls. He is not to be depended on, but Bush might own him if they can work a deal.

[TomB]

Did I hear Hugh Hewitt say on his show the other nite that he was supporting Specter?

If so, that is very disappointing.

[Willie Green]

My eyes are blurred with tears of joy.