Lost Your Job Yet?

Computerworld ^ | April 12, 2004 | John Pardon

[1rudeboy]

[B]ecause agricultural products are #2 behind aircraft. so if aircraft fell, food exports would move to #1. its quite simple really.

If it's that "simple," then one of you should be able to cite a source for this claim? The annualized data I posted for 2003 makes this "simple" assertion fairly squishy, if not outright ridiculous.

[1rudeboy]

As far as your list of platitudes, can you add "our largest exports are agricultural and other natural resources?" Thanks in advance.

[guitfiddlist]

"The most important single 3-digit SIC code for U.S. exports in 2002 was not aircraft, as you might have guessed, but code 776, "thermionic, cold cathode and photo cathode valves" with $47.6 billion of exports. Presumably these are not being used for radio equipment, as would have been the case in 1925, but for medical imaging equipment. A good business, but probably not one capable of growing exponentially (exports from the 77 sector as a whole grew by only 5 percent in the five years 1997-2002.)

Second is indeed code 792 -- aircraft and associated equipment, at $44.9 billion. The passenger aircraft business is close to a world duopoly, between Boeing and Airbus. Boeing could normally be expected to gain market share as the dollar declined, making its costs more competitive against Airbus. However, the company has spent too little on innovation in the last 30 years, and is now losing world market share rapidly to the newer product range of Airbus. Exports in this sector are likely to decline going forward, and imports to increase."

Source:

http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:rbxlY9UQ0HsJ:www.upi.com/view.cfm%3FStoryID%3D20040102-032245-7065r+Aircraft+as+percentage+of+exports&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

[1rudeboy]

Nothing kills a thread faster than economic data.

[neutrino]

I don't see that in your #128. Did I simply miss it? If so, where?

It's right there in #128.

For your reading pleasure:

Keep in mind that this is about much more than programmers. It is about the very nature of our economy. Do we wish to export value added goods, or not? Presently, most of our exports are agricultural products and various natural resources. We are net importers of every technological product except aircraft and aircraft parts.

[wku man]

You and me both. I heeded the Labor Dept's clarion call back in 2000, the one for Americans to get more high tech skills. You remember that one? The one that promised millions of new IT jobs over the next decade? Well, I made the jump from radio (which pays nothing anymore...thanks, Cheap Channel) into telecom, paid thousands of dollars to get several BICSI certs, an A+ cert, and finally a CCNA. My current job delivering pizzas for Domino's pays more than any of the few help desk jobs available here in Florida.

So now they're telling us to retrain into the health care industry, eh? Well, my sister-in-law does Human Resources for a major healthcare corporation, and they've been sending her to the Philippines, Thailand, etc. to recruit nurses. Evidently, there aren't enough qualified American nurses to fill all the vacancies, so they have to rely on foreigners until enough Americans get retrained...or so they say, at any rate. Sound familiar? Heck, I could name that tune in two notes. They're feeding us the same BS they did back in 2000, only this time for healthcare jobs. These government clarion calls are merely smoke screens for Congress to increase H-1Bs and L-1s.

Job skills of the future? I dunno...maybe marksmanship.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

[oceanview]

you have to dig around, and the groupings make it hard to tally.

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2003pr/12/exh7.txt

But, for 2003, all agricultural products ('food, feeds and beverages') came in at 55,079 million. other categories are higher (like autos), but it depends on how sub-categories you group into it.

the original "source" for this was a trade article written by Pat Buchanan, where he cited how agricultural products are a heavy component of US exports.

[neutrino]

You want a source? Fine.

Paul Craig Roberts addresses the question. Read it here

Don't like that? Try this (You'll need Adobe's PDF reader).

Not enough? Very well. Try the paper on the US current account, A sectoral Assessment of Performance and prospects here. It's only 271 pages long, so it should provide an evenings light reading. I encourage you to pay particular attention to Table 3.17, page 54.

Perhaps you'd like to read this, from page 59:

This is what happened to the United States in the 1980s and what happened again in the mounting deficits of the late 1990s. The $146.8 billion 1981-87 deterioration in manufactures trade performance was equivalent to 87.9 percent of the deterioration in the current account balance overall, and to about 3.3 percent of 1987 US GNP. Similarly, the $263.3 billion increase in the manufactures deficit from 1991 to 1999 was equivalent to 85.0 percent of the decline in the goods balance and about 75 percent of the $343 billion current account deficit expansion over the same period. Expansion of the oil deficit was equivalent to 6.8 percent of the 1991-99 current account deficit expansion and decline in the agricultural surplus to 1.6 percent.

Or read this from page 60:

Clearly the US manufacturing sector in the long run must be large enough to avoid large, consistently growing current account deficits relative to GDP and the adverse long-term effects on US living standards of continued borrowing abroad. But changes ultimately implemented solely by the workings of international economic forces could be untimely and particularly painful. Anticipating and preparing for these changes may mitigate the difficulties. In a world economy that is now more integrated and more competitive than ever before, US economic policy making -- fiscal, monetary, tax, regulatory, and other policies -- must consider the vulnerability of the manufacturing sector to foreign competition and to policies that influence the size and direction of net international capital flows.

Not enough? Still not enough? Try this, from page 67:

United States (Tables 4.7A, 4.7B, 4.7C)

· The United States consistently runs relatively modest agricultural goods surpluses but huge

deficits in fuels and manufactured goods.

· The manufactures share of total goods trade continues to grow reaching 82.0 percent of 1998

exports, 80.2 percent of imports.

· Asia, Western Europe, and North America (Canada) each take about one-fourth of US

manufactures exports; just one-fifth (20.9 percent) goes to Latin America, about half of that

to Mexico.

· US clothing imports are huge, $55.7 billion in 1998, 7.4 percent of the manufactures total.

· Mexico outranks Japan as a market for US manufactures.

· Nearly half (45.3 percent) of manufactures imports are from Asia, including 15.9 percent

from Japan; over one-fifth, 22.4 percent, are from Europe, with another one-sixth, 16.3

percent, from Canada.

Still not enough? Want more? Try reading table 4.7.B on page 76.

More? You want more? Great! See table 5.1 on page 115!

You know perfectly well that the numbers show the US is having her throat cut by the free traitors. And it's no good denying that they are wielding the knife while screaming for cheap garbage from Great Wall Mart.

[Lael]

People on FR need to stop thin[k]ing that this is some sort of electioneering issue thought up by the Democrats. It is not. This is a real issues and it will just get worse.

AMEN!!!

I was carefully watching the Democrats pre-primaries.

Kerry thought that he could solve it by making "call centers" identify where they were...as though I.T. was JUST help desks, and we weren't astute to the sound of foreign accents!

Dean thought 'outsourcing' meant sending Whirlpool manufacturing to Mexico, and his solution was to NOT treat the now Mexican manufactured washing machines as "Mexican Manufactured Machines" under NAFTA!

Watching these guys [C. Mosley Braun didn't even try to "grapple" with it], and you realized that, on this suddenly and perhaps DECISIVE political issue, the Demos were just as CLUELESS, if not complicit on this issue

But, AT LEAST they had the good sense to not PRAISE and APPLAUD these trends!

I'm convinced that is the only reason an obvious loser like Kerry is getting a serious "look see" from perhaps a "Plurality" of American voters!

[InABunkerUnderSF]

Doom and gloom talk. Most of my customers who I visit and sell to in the Midwest are increasing IT staff. Now, a lot of the low-level/helpdesk jobs that involve basic troubleshooting are outsourced to India...

So, if we outsource all of the "low-level/helpdesk jobs", how do we bring new people into the field? These are the entry level jobs. I used to poach all my good guys for network management from the Helpdesk and Desktop groups. They had better trouble shooting skills and better work ethic than people we hired in from outside.

At the company I worked at they "insourced" everything to Indians on L-1 visas - Helpdesk went first, followed by software development, then desktop, server admin. and network management, which included security. Those of us who held those jobs originally had the choice of "providing knowledge transfer" or leaving then without benefits, cobra, etc. We stayed.

I really don't think you understand the situation. I hope you don't get the opportunity to see it first hand.

[1rudeboy]

You know perfectly well that the numbers show the US is having her throat cut by the free traitors.

Better to have your throat cut by someone who understands economics, rather than be bludgeoned to death by someone who cannot tell the difference between total exports and net trade deficits.

[neutrino]

It appears that you didn't bother to read the references I gave you.

There are none so blind as those who will not see.

[1rudeboy]

Given your propensity for posting reams of irrelevant data, like you did in your #138, your "suggestion" that I go and look-through another one of your document-dumps to gather that single nugget of data that you yourself cannot provide is simply BS.

I am interested to see if you can support your bald, and simple, assertion that ". . . most of our exports are agricultural products and various natural resources." Note that you made no mention of imports, import deficits, or sunspots. Nor do you need to cite to the full-text version of the Magna Carta and invite me to look. Simply cut & paste a few lines (like I do--chortle), and include a hyperlink for the rest so that I can check your work. Let's see if you can do it . . . I know you can.

[CyberCowboy777]

I am not trying to be original, and I have never argued this outside of family and friends so you'll have to forgive me if I do not meet your new argument standard.

As for grading - I have been steadily working and growing throughout this "sluggish economy", so I'll based my performance on that.

[CyberCowboy777]

There is no doubt that we hit a rough patch (as a nation, not just I.T.) and 500,000 jobs is real people.

But these things must be taken in context, if you get an attitude you put yourself on the road to defeatism.

We are on the way up and those with a go get'em attitude will be there first and prosper the most.

[CyberCowboy777]

I'll have to take your word for it, it is just lower than I have seen. Good for the Russian though!

But I'll pass on swallowing this bilge - All employment is essentially a form of enslavement.

LOL! Enslavement is NOT voluntary.

[Dominic Harr]

I am telling you, thats what we are paying our guys, that is all. We dont quote these prices on our website.

The cheapest we've found people for is $30 hr, total cost. And that's a fresh-out-of-college newbie. You could get the same here, for the same price. And when you complain that you need more 'experienced' support, they quote us $65 an hour! Are you kidding me!?

And in my experience, the quality of service flat-out stinks. CSC used Satyam, a CMM Level 5 shop. Had to let them go, they burned the entire budget on one app just making a design doc, no kidding.

They need a 'War-And-Peace' sized design doc before they'll even start. Good local developers using an Iterative dev methodology were able to build, test and deploy the entire app in less than the time it took Satyam to get a design doc approved.

Then CSC switched opened an Indian Division, and those fellas are causing more bugs than they fix. Last week one Director barred CSC India from putting any more code into one production Lotus sysem, the problems became so bad. But their cost sure looks good on the manager's budget! The manager get's many kudos for the low labor costs, possibly even promoted. Of course, total cost goes up, and the clients are complaining . . . contracts are being lost . . . but hey, you can't have everything now, can you!?

It's just a matter of methodologies -- you can't work closely together on an aggresive iteration schedule with people on the other side of the world. The only way to make it work even a little is to sell out to the 'waterfall' methodology, and then you get killed in the market by XP-style shops.

[neutrino]

I've got a better idea. Go read the report. You were given lots of references from a variety of reports - you just don't want to look at them. I even gave you page numbers.

As I said earler - there are none so blind as those who will not see.

[LearnsFromMistakes]

All hail CMM. I hope all those off-shore companies become CMM compliant. That should kill any profits...

[TXBSAFH]

I hear you, keep your powder dry.