Posted on 04/29/2004 11:13:47 AM PDT by Dr. Scarpetta
One upset Toomey supporter said something like this: "PRESIDENT BUSH DRAGGED SPECTER'S LOUSY REAR-END ACROSS THE FINISH LINE."
"It's not arguable that Specter owes his victory to President Bush," Franklin & Marshall College pollster G. Terry Madonna said.
"His appearance with Specter in Pittsburgh on April 19 was noticeable. We caught it in our polling. Wayward Republican voters came around to Specter.
The appeal that the party needs you, the president needs you, proved to be the difference."
According to unofficial results, with 99 percent of precincts reporting, Specter had 528,553 votes to Toomey's 511,818 -- a difference of 2 percentage points.
Polls showed that Toomey was almost unknown outside of the Leigh Valley when the campaign began, but during the campaign's final weeks, Toomey gained significant ground on Specter.
In the last week, Specter's campaign began paying for TV ads showing Specter on a stage with President Bush and U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum during a fund-raiser April 19 in Pittsburgh.
"I'm here to say it as plainly as I can," Bush says in the ad. "Arlen Specter is the right man for the United States Senate. ... I can count on this man."
Santorum said the ad helped "stem the tide" and effectively emphasize the president's support of Specter.
"No question about it, the ad was well done," Santorum said. "Was it decisive? It's hard to say. No question it was critical."
The Republican establishment backed Specter as the party's best bet to hold onto the seat.
Republicans control the Senate by a 51-49 margin, and party leaders didn't want to risk losing the seat to Democrat Joe Hoeffel in November.
"It's tough sledding when the party establishment is against you," said Christopher P. Borick, a political scientist and pollster at Muhlenberg College.
Borick said he was surprised to see Toomey come close to defeating Specter.
"I attribute it to a classic case of staying on message, to portray Arlen as a liberal," Borick said. "Toomey did well to energize the right, who were never fans of Arlen Specter."
Specter spent more than $10 million on his campaign. Toomey said he expected to spend $4 million, and conservative groups reportedly spent another $2 million on Toomey's behalf.
A low voter turnout -- about 32 percent of registered voters -- helped Toomey because Toomey voters were more passionate about their candidate's ideas and positions, Madonna said.
Borick said the endorsements from Bush and Santorum, who are both popular in conservative circles, may not have produced a huge number of Specter votes but probably were "a key to hold onto enough voters" because Specter "needed everything he got."
Madonna said Toomey did a good job of downplaying the importance of Bush's endorsement by saying the administration simply has a policy of endorsing Republican incumbents.
"Toomey was able to do what other Specter opponents in primaries couldn't do -- to make a believer out of the cause to defeat Specter," Madonna said.
Madonna said Toomey, a 42-year-old resident of Upper Milford Township, came across as a bright, articulate and focused conservative who was "not threatening" and "a guy next door."
Madonna also said there may be "a Specter fatigue" for some voters who think it's "time for a change."
Specter, a 74-year-old resident of Philadelphia, has been a senator for almost 24 years.
Madonna said he didn't think Specter's age was a liability but noted that Toomey was sharper in the candidates' lone debate April 3 in Altoona.
Borick said he disagrees with the argument that Specter "is out of touch" with Pennsylvania Republicans. He said the state has a large number of "country club Republicans" who support Specter.
Specter's success in Montgomery County had little to do with Specter being from nearby Philadelphia and more to do with the type of Republicans in Montgomery County, Borick said.
Specter got more than 48,000 votes in Montgomery County and beat Toomey by more than 14,000 votes in that county.
Toomey's congressional district includes parts of Montgomery and Berks counties and all of Northampton and Lehigh counties. Toomey has honored his 1998 campaign pledge to only serve six years in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Charlie Roberts, a longtime Republican Party activist from Bethlehem Township, worked on Toomey's earlier campaigns but supported Specter in the primary.
"Pat had a well-organized campaign and a message people liked," said the former chairman of the Northampton County Republican Committee. "Pat had a good message that resonated with a lot of people."
Roberts said Toomey's concession speech was gracious and helped heal wounds caused by the primary battle.
"There will be no major rift," Roberts said. "Most with Pat will be working with Arlen."
Santorum said, "Pat Toomey needs to be credited. He set the right tone in his remarks. All of us have realized that as much as Pat would suggest that Arlen is not conservative, it's night and day, the difference between Arlen Specter and Joe Hoeffel."
Reporter Michael P. Buffer can be reached at 610-867-5000 or by e-mail at mbuffer@express-times.com.
"His appearance with Specter in Pittsburgh on April 19 was noticeable. We caught it in our polling.
Wayward Republican voters came around to Specter. The appeal that the party needs you, the president needs you, proved to be the difference."
*Ping
Just like the Dems figure Kerry is the guy who has the best chance to beat Bush.
There's simply no other valid reason to back Specter.
Conservatism is all but dead in the Republican Party.
Feh.
IMO, Bush came across as naive to actually go all out for that Borker, Arlen Specter.
2. $16 million spent on a primary is ridiculous.
3. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has a map of the county by county breakdown of the election. The results are surprising, if not amazing. Specter won the conservative "T", and Toomey carried Western PA. I am curious to see what the general election brings.
Specter has to get elected in November, and his distancing himself from Bush already is interesting. Will Bush come here in the Fall and campaign for Specter again if Specter turns against him? (BTW, who is the Libertarian candidate for the Senate here?)
Forty-eight hours later, and Specter is already bending Conservatives (AND Bush and Santorum) over and giving them the RINO weenie.
Ya think pro-life wasn't hurt? Regarding Bush/Santorum/Specter let's consider what someone said 'you are either with us or against us'.
Conservative friends don't let friends vote for RINOs under any circumstances. It only encourages further breeding.
I spoke to many Pro-Lifers who were confused by the onslaught of Specter ads that CLAIMED Toomey flip-flopped on abortion ... that he voted to fund pornography to children ... that he voted in favor of slots in PA ... that he voted against abstinence education.
They were played in Lancaster County non-stop!!
I also hate the ad that said Toomey served drunks and allowed drug-dealing in his restaurant.
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