The U.S. Jobless Recovery Is Jobless No More: Caroline Baum

Bloomberg ^ | 05/07/04 | Bloomberg

[Pikamax]

The U.S. Jobless Recovery Is Jobless No More: Caroline Baum May 7 (Bloomberg) -- So the nation's purchasing managers had it right after all.

For months, the closely watched manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management has been heralding a revival in manufacturing employment. The ISM employment index broke above 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction, in November, rising to a 16-year high of 57.8 in April.

[sinkspur]

Willie Green is deeply saddened.

[USNBandit]

``Manufacturers were adding to payrolls with the workweek at a lower level than before,'' says Joe Carson, director of global economic research at Alliance Capital Management. ``It makes no sense,'' especially in light of the strength in factory shipments in March, which were up 3.8 percent.

Maybe the manufacturers are gearing up for anticipated growth in demand and don't want to be left flatfooted when the orders start rolling in.

[steveegg]

Goldman, Sachs & Co. economists, steadfast in their view of no Fed tightening until mid-2005, were among the last to throw in the towel.

``Our view of no Fed tightening and lower bond yields in 2004 has become untenable,'' Goldman wrote in a note to clients following today's report. ``We now expect the FOMC to raise its fed funds target by a cumulative 100 basis points to 2 percent by year-end, probably starting with a 25 basis-point hike at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting.''

And the RATs will be screaming about rising interest rates without acknowledging the fact that the reason for it blew their "jobless recovery" argument out of the water.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

While manufacturers are hiring again, primarily in durable goods industries, after 42 consecutive months of job cuts, curiously they cut back on employee hours in April, according to today's employment report. The manufacturing workweek fell 0.3 hours to 40.6 hours. Generally businesses add employees when they can't keep up with the order flow by working the existing staff longer hours.

There comes a point of diminished returns on that policy and likely they have reached it. It is called over time.

When you are fairly sure that orders are going to stay up it makes more sense to hire another seven people then continue to pay 20 ten hours a week of time and a half.

Production also goes up once you get past the training curve. Which you want to do before production picks up dramatically.

[snopercod]

All the factories in my county closed down last year. All four of them.

So when I hear that "factories are hiring", it doesn't mean a helluva lot to me.

And of course, nobody is hiring engineers anywhere that I can see. (Real engineers, not symbol manipulators.)

But Burger King does have a sign out front, so this article is probably right. Aren't hamburgers considered durable goods now?

[Arkie2]

The ones I eat seem to linger awhile. Making them also count as manufacturing jobs don't they?

[snopercod]

Well, I promised myself that I wouldn't whine any more on these threads.

[DB]

Hey, after making me cry about building my house you expect sympathy? ;-)

[HiramQuick]

So .... CHANGE!!! Buggy whip factories are in few supply today. If you are an engineer .. change to what the work force needs. Rocket science REALLY is pretty simple.

But then again, it is easier to b**ch about something than do something ....

Buttttt I cannnn'ttttt (in Atilla the Ned's most whiny voice.....)

[lasereye]

So when I hear that "factories are hiring", it doesn't mean a helluva lot to me.

Geez I guess it's all false.

[snopercod]

change to what the work force needs

Sorry, I have to much self-respect to become a lawyer or a politician.

[snopercod]

You'll thank me someday...

[snopercod]

to=too

[Camel Joe]

Exactly, why run an overtime shift when you are meeting the demand by adding employees, not curious at all.

[EternalVigilance]

...rising to a 16-year high

Bears repeating.

[CWOJackson]

Is pat buchanan under a suicide watch?

[Camel Joe]

Might I suggest "MOVING TO WHERE THE JOBS ARE"!!! Reminds me of Bad Sammy's routine on the starving Ethiopians. Just move to where the food is.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

It isn't just a wage issue. A lot of people don't like working overtime. They want to put in their eight hours and go home. You can get them to put in a few extra hours here and there but you do it long enough on a regular basis and you have a resentful unhappy employee.

My factory is a food facility, resentful unhappy employees can be our worse nightmare.

[Poohbah]

Might I suggest "MOVING TO WHERE THE JOBS ARE"!!!

If I can't have the job I want, at the pay I want, in the place I want, then we're in an economic catastrophe. BUY GOLD!!!!