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U.S. Missile Shield Won't Work: Scientist Group
reuters ^ | 1 hour, 11 minutes ago | By Jim Wolf

Posted on 05/13/2004 8:17:24 AM PDT by epluribus_2

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The multibillion-dollar U.S. ballistic missile shield due to start operating by Sept. 30 appears incapable of shooting down any incoming warheads, an independent scientists' group said on Thursday.

A technical analysis found "no basis for believing the system will have any capability to defend against a real attack," the Union of Concerned Scientists said in a 76-page report titled Technical Realities.

The Pentagon (news - web sites)'s Missile Defense Agency rejected the report.

"It will provide a defense against incoming missiles for the first time in this country's history," said Richard Lehner, an agency spokesman.

The Pentagon's initial deployment involves 10 interceptor missiles in silos in Alaska and California. It is designed to protect all 50 U.S. states against a limited strike from North Korean missiles that could be tipped with nuclear, chemical or biological warheads.

Boeing Co. is assembling the shield, which would use the interceptors to launch "kill vehicles" meant to pulverize targets in the mid-course of their flight paths, outside the Earth's atmosphere. Using infrared sensors, the vehicles would search the chill of space for the warheads. So far, the interceptors have scored hits five times in eight highly controlled tests.

The Missile Defense Agency "appears to be picking numbers out of thin air," the report said of past Pentagon assertions of a high probability of shooting down targets.

"There is no data to justify such an assumption," added the scientists' group, which is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Its findings dovetailed with an audit last month by Congress's General Accounting Office (news - web sites) that said the system's effectiveness would be "largely unproven" when the initial capability goes on alert.

DANGEROUS POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Even unsophisticated countermeasures that could be mounted by countries such as North Korea (news - web sites) remain an unsolved problem for midcourse defenses against long-range missiles, the scientists' report said.

Balloon decoys could be given the same infrared signature as a warhead by painting their surfaces, it said. The project could also be confused by sealing the warhead in a large balloon so the kill vehicle could not determine its exact location or tethering several balloons to it.

Overstating the defensive capabilities of the ground-based defense is dangerous, the group said.

"If the president is told that the system could reliably defend against a North Korean ballistic missile attack, he might be willing to accept more risks when making policy and military decisions," the report said.

"All indications are that it would not work," added Lisbeth Gronlund, a physicist who is a co-author of the report and co-director of the group's global security program.

"And the administration's statements that it will be highly effective are irresponsible nonsense," she added in a telephone interview.

Overall, the Pentagon estimates it will need $53 billion in the next five years to develop, field and upgrade a multilayered shield also involving systems based at sea, aboard modified Boeing 747 aircraft and in space.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: defense; missiledefense; propaganda; ratscience
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Union of Concerned Democrats... independant scientists'group, my kiester.

Another propaganda IED on the road through Campaign 2004.

1 posted on 05/13/2004 8:17:26 AM PDT by epluribus_2
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To: epluribus_2
Probably the same group of erudite scientists who predicted global cooling, the end of the world's oil supply by 1980, and the death of the oceans by 2000 ... yet have been unable to explain why Mars is warming up.
2 posted on 05/13/2004 8:18:43 AM PDT by mgc1122
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To: All
Weren't these same idiots whining just the other day about something else President Bush was doing?
3 posted on 05/13/2004 8:21:11 AM PDT by COEXERJ145
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To: epluribus_2
This is a leftwing self-interest group. Unless government grants go their way they don't want the work done.

I think since the demise of the Soviet Union they've had to affiliate themselves with the National Education Association, or was that the National Endowment ~ whoever has the money.

4 posted on 05/13/2004 8:22:43 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: epluribus_2
The same group of people that said stealth technology would never work.

Losers, pure and simple.
5 posted on 05/13/2004 8:23:33 AM PDT by zencat
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To: epluribus_2
From their website:

Timeline

UCS was born in 1969 out of a movement at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where an ad hoc group of faculty and students joined together to protest the misuse of science and technology. They put forth a Faculty Statement -- the genesis of UCS -- calling for greater emphasis on the application of scientific research to environmental and social problems, rather than military programs. Since then, UCS has continued to act on and refine the original vision on which it was founded. Some of our accomplishments during the last two decades are listed below.


1999
Public awareness of global warming receives a big boost with the release of a UCS report, Confronting Climate Change in California, and a 60-second film trailer, Perfect Balance, produced by UCS and the Earth Communications Office.

UCS crowns a multiyear effort to protect Bacillus thuringiensis, a valuable natural pesticide, by bringing high visibility to a preliminary report on the toxic effect of transgenic corn pollen on the Monarch Butterfly. As a result, the Environmental Protection Agency strengthens its requirements on all crops engineered to produce the Bt toxin.

1998
Through coordination with other environmental and public health groups to mobilize grassroots pressure and emphasize the risks from diesel pollution, UCS convinces the California Air Resources Board to require sport-utiltiy vehicles, light trucks, and diesel cars to meet the same tailpipe emissions standards as gasoline cars.

Strong coalition work also enables us to persuade the Connecticut legislature to include the strongest support for clean energy in the country in a law deregulating the electricity industry.

1997
Over 1,500 international senior scientists, including 105 science Nobel laureates, sign the UCS-sponsored World Scientists Call for Action at the Kyoto Climate Summit. This document, as well as other intensive UCS work with policymakers and scientists, sets the stage for a strong climate change treaty, which was signed in Kyoto, Japan, in December.

1996
UCS leads the successful campaign to open the market to clean, nonpolluting cars in California.

UCS produces an award-winning documentary video, Keeping the Earth, which features prominent scientists and religious leaders urging all people to protect the environment and the diverse species that share it.

1995
In response to grassroots pressure generated by UCS, the US Environmental Protection Agency imposes new conditions on commercialization of genetically engineered crops.

UCS launches its Sound Science Initiative, a pioneering national network of over 1,500 scientists linked by the Internet who speak out on critical environmental issues.

1994
UCS joins with the National Religious Partnership for the Environment to provide information on environmental science to over 50,000 congregations throughout the United States.

1993
UCS pioneers new analytical techniques to demonstrate the breadth of renewable energy resources in 12 midwestern states. The research, described in Powering the Midwest, generates new attention and commitment in the region to harnessing clean local energy resources.

1992
Some 1,700 scientists worldwide, including a majority of Nobel laureates in the sciences, issue the World Scientists' Warning to Humanity. UCS Chair Henry Kendall wrote and spearheaded the statement, an unprecedented appeal from the world's leading scientists on the destruction of the earth's natural resources.

1991
UCS petitions the Nuclear Regulatory Commission over lax enforcement of critical safety standards at the Yankee Rowe nuclear plant in Massachusetts, forcing the shutdown of the country's oldest nuclear plant. This sets back the nuclear industry's efforts to allow nuclear power plants to operate beyond their 40-year licenses.

1990
UCS analysis, ad campaigns, and grassroots activism uncloak the enormous expense and dubious mission of the B-2 Stealth bomber, ultimately succeeding in limiting production to 15 planes.

The "Appeal by American Scientists to Prevent Global Warming," signed by 700 members of the National Academy of Sciences, kicks off UCS's campaign to prevent climate change. The effort includes UCS's work to reform US energy and transportation policies and create broader public understanding of the risks of climate change.

1987
UCS successfully sues the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to overturn policies that allowed cost considerations to offset public safety in enforcing new safety standards at nuclear power plants.

1985
Over 700 members of the National Academy of Sciences, including 57 Nobel laureates, sign UCS's "Appeal to Ban Space Weapons" urging the US and USSR to ban testing and deployment of weapons in space.

1983
UCS mobilizes swift and sweeping opposition in the scientific community to Ronald Reagan's proposal for a Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars). UCS's analyses of SDI's technical and strategic drawbacks provide a crucial counterweight to the claims and promises of its proponents.

1980
UCS undertakes a technical assessment of alternatives to nuclear power and fossil fuels. The study, Energy Strategies: Toward a Solar Future, launches UCS's ongoing efforts to promote safe and renewable energy supplies for the United States.

1979
UCS calls for the shutdown of the Three Mile Island reactors (and 15 other nuclear power plants) because the Nuclear Regulatory Commission had severely understated the probability of an accident. Two months later, following the near meltdown of TMI Unit II, UCS provides crucial independent information to the media and public seeking to understand the accident and the risks to neighboring communities.

UCS petitions the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to adopt stricter safety standards for nuclear plants. The NRC finally strengthens its standards in 1980.

Over 12,000 scientists sign the UCS-sponsored "Scientists' Declaration on the Nuclear Arms Race," urging a halt to the weapons buildup and a moratorium on testing and deployment of new nuclear devices.
6 posted on 05/13/2004 8:23:37 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Islam: Nothing BEER couldn't cure.)
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To: epluribus_2
If they haven't seen the test plans and the data from the tests (since that is classified, I highly doubt they have) then there appears to be no scientific basis for the so-called "scientists" to pontificate.
7 posted on 05/13/2004 8:25:04 AM PDT by RKV (He who has the guns makes the rules.)
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To: epluribus_2
Some scientists believed that a railroad would never be a practical idea. It was thought that at high speed (20 mph) a man would not have the ability to breathe (not enough power to exhale into the wind).

Any scientist who says "This will never work" is taking a big risk.

8 posted on 05/13/2004 8:26:24 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (You can see it coming like a train on a track.)
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To: epluribus_2
Not the Union of Communist Scientists again!?
9 posted on 05/13/2004 8:27:56 AM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: mgc1122
yet have been unable to explain why Mars is warming up.

It all started after the US sent probes to land on Mars.

10 posted on 05/13/2004 8:29:25 AM PDT by The_Victor
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To: epluribus_2
I knew EXACTLY who the "scientist group" was as soon as I read the title.

I just opened the thread to confirm my own smarts.

11 posted on 05/13/2004 8:30:11 AM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: epluribus_2
And I don't care what Chris Columbus says, the world is FLAT!
12 posted on 05/13/2004 8:33:03 AM PDT by Driver70
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To: epluribus_2
Yeah.... I think it's a propaganda piece. But I also think that when we get nuked, it won't be with a long range missle.
13 posted on 05/13/2004 8:36:18 AM PDT by kjam22
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To: COEXERJ145
You know everything about missiles, don't you! You are so sure to discredit the scientists who spent their whole life studying this subject.

I am a scientist, and I object to other scientists on Global warming issue because I am an expert on that subject; however, I cannot be sure about the missile issues because I did not closely investigate it.

Military contractors are making a living robbing your and my monies, as they get lucrative deals from their connections. As far as Missile shield, there were several reports that the money spent already was wasted, and the demonstration tests were rigged. No contractor or military official was punished for cheating on the test data. God knows who is telling the truth, as I don’t trust the reporters either. We should always question our government.

14 posted on 05/13/2004 8:37:04 AM PDT by philosofy123
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To: epluribus_2
"...The project could also be confused by sealing the warhead in a large balloon..."

A nuclear warhead at ballistic speeds????

idiots
15 posted on 05/13/2004 8:37:42 AM PDT by Mr. K (ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,this is like liberal logic,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø))
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To: All
How odd...

-Israel's Arrow Anti-Missile System and the THEL...--

16 posted on 05/13/2004 8:40:39 AM PDT by backhoe (--30--)
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To: epluribus_2
No defensive system has ever been foolproof, and nobody claims that the missile shield will be. The benefit of such a system is that it will force any potential opponent to consider the possibility that their intended target(s) will not be struck.

Also, what is the value of not losing a major American city? As an investment akin to immunizations, the idea certainly beats the alternative of doing nothing.

I wonder just how much this same group would be willing to "invest" in combating global warming? We know the threat of missile attack is real, can we say the same for mankind's effect on the climate?
17 posted on 05/13/2004 8:44:18 AM PDT by Poodlebrain
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To: philosofy123
"the demonstration tests were rigged"

No, they were "controlled", as any real scientist would understand *coughs*

To get a good test of your weapon's knock-down power, you want to help the weapon find the target - because you need a hit for the test. You need the data to see how succesful it is at *destroying* an ICBM, not detecting it. You don't want to waste all that time and money only to have the weapon miss this phase of testing simply because the targeting specs aren't ready yet.

This is typical of the distortions and mis-reporting by our media and *cough* "concerned scientists". Why do you think they call it "Star Wars" instead of SDI?
18 posted on 05/13/2004 8:45:01 AM PDT by Fenris6
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To: Poodlebrain
Right,

It is like saying to NK, are you feeling lucky, punk
19 posted on 05/13/2004 8:49:32 AM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kim Jung Mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: Mr. K
Yes, that is a perfectly good way to confuse anti-missile defenses (radar, IR) in the mid-course of a ICBM's warhead trajectory.
At that point, the warhead and its surrounding balloon and OTHER balloons (which might or might not have a warhead in them) are in outer space with no air resistance! (And travelling at high rate of speed too!)
20 posted on 05/13/2004 8:49:58 AM PDT by texson66 ("Tyranny is yielding to the lust of the governing." - Lord Moulton)
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