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Actual NH Final Jan 27 -John Kerry 84,229 38% 13 Howard Dean 57,788 26%
Zogby NH Primary Tracking Poll Jan 25
Kerry 31% Dean 28% Clark 13% Edwards 12% Lieberman 9%
RESULT: Actual Diff: 12% (Kerry - Dean)
Actual IOWA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out
Zogby IOWA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.
Ten years or so ago when he was an unknown, he made his name/reputation by doing a good job of concentrating on the "likely voters" instead of "all voters" and was much more accurate than a lot of his established competitors.
But now that he's famous, he no longer has to worry about accuracy to make a name for himself. He now has the luxury of taking sides in the political debate and doing "push polls" instead of accurate polls. He will be a darling of the media every time he predicts disaster for the GOP, regardless of how inaccurate it is.
Wildly inaccurate polls can demoralize a lot of the grassroots who are working for the side that's in the target hairs of a partisan pollster. So they can be self-fulfilling to some limited extent.
Note I'm not accusing Zogby of this. I'm suggesting it as a possible explanation.
Actually, since Zogby lumps fair in with bad, a 42% approval rating really means Bush is pretty close to 50%. That's not bad at all, considering the press frenzy lately. Once this dies down, and it will, and when and if Iraq quiets down just a little, Bush will bounce back.