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Al-Qaeda boosted by Iraq war, warns think-tank
channelnewsasia.com/ ^ | May 25, 04 | channelnewsasia.com/

Posted on 05/26/2004 12:43:21 AM PDT by churchillbuff

LONDON : The US-led war on Iraq, far from countering terrorism, has helped revitalise the Al-Qaeda terror network, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank warned.

The London-based body said in its annual Strategic Survey 2003/2004 that the deadly train bombings in Madrid in March, the worst terror strike in Europe for more than a decade, showed that Osama Bin Laden's terror network "had fully reconstituted".

It also predicted the Islamic group would step up its anti-Western attacks, possibly even resorting to weapons of mass destruction and targeting Americans, Europeans and Israelis while continuing to support insurgents opposing the US-led occupation of Iraq.

The IISS pointed to devastating blasts in Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in 2003 and 2004 as further evidence that anti-US sentiment had soared since the Iraq war.

"In counter-terrorism terms, the intervention has arguably focused the energies and resources of al-Qaeda and its followers while diluting those of the global counter-terrorism coalition that appeared so formidable following the Afghanistan intervention in late 2001," the report said.

However, since the war it said that arms proliferation and state-sponsored terrorism has dwindled, with Libya giving up its unconventional weapons programs and Syria becoming "less provocative."

Stalinist North Korea's secret nuclear programme was somehow contained thanks to a negotiating process while Iran agreed to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear activities, the IISS said.

But another legacy of the war was what the IISS termed a highly questionable recourse to pre-emptive strikes as a means of counter-proliferation, as well as "the uses and abuses of intelligence as a basis for military action."

The IISS said the United States, which has dominated world affairs since the end of the Cold War, had failed to understand that Al-Qaeda's September 11, 2001 attacks were "a violent reaction to America's pre-eminence" and it urged the superpower to temper "the appearance of American unilateralism".

It warned that Washington would have a hard time restoring order in embattled Iraq and stressed that the conflict had brought a political split between the United States and its continental European allies, leaving Britain stuck in the middle.

The survey additionally forecast a possible attention shift away from terrorism, Middle Eastern problems and weapons proliferation should North Korea opt for a more aggressive stance, a humanitarian disaster hit Africa or undesirable regime-changes "produce abrupt and serious security challenges".

The United States will not manage to tackle all of the above single-handedly, warned the think-tank, raising a question mark over Europe's ability to break away from "strategic arthritis."


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; antinukes; fraud; generalmcclellanbuff; iraq; mymomismurrymom; peaceactivists; peaceniks; terrorism; threats
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1 posted on 05/26/2004 12:43:22 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff

Osama who? Guess we forgot about him. He didn't forget about us, though.


2 posted on 05/26/2004 12:44:13 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff
The IISS pointed to devastating blasts in Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in 2003 and 2004 as further evidence that anti-US sentiment had soared since the Iraq war.

Yep. The Iraq adventure has made us a lot safer. And where IS Osama, by the way?

3 posted on 05/26/2004 12:45:32 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff
Japanese recruits boosted by Dolittles attack on Japan...
4 posted on 05/26/2004 12:47:26 AM PDT by DB (©)
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To: churchillbuff
channelnewsasia.com/

Couldn't find anything on Pravda?

5 posted on 05/26/2004 12:47:50 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: churchillbuff

Where is Osama?

Dead.


6 posted on 05/26/2004 12:48:11 AM PDT by DB (©)
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To: churchillbuff
The US-led war on Iraq, far from countering terrorism, has helped revitalise the Al-Qaeda terror network . . .

Yeah, and I'm sure they're all highly trained, too. </sarcasm>

Bring 'em on.

7 posted on 05/26/2004 12:50:28 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: churchillbuff

Hey GeneralMcClellanBuff, perhaps you are unaware that this 'think tank' also was a big anti-nuke, anti-war supporter during the 80's. Since you 'claim' to be a big Reagan supporter, why would you post as gospel truth a spun study from a group that actively tried to undermine Reagan's Cold War efforts?

And as to your snotty little remarks implying that Bush isn't pursuing AQ, that's either complete ignorance or blatent dishonesty. You tell me, are you an idiot or a liar? How nice of you to spit on our forces in Afghanistan(and in and out of autonomous Pakistan and other places that you have no clue about.)

All your posts seem to be anti-Bush, and often contradictary. I urge each reader to check your posting history for themselves. Your main purpose seems to be dividing conservatives and defeating the Bush administration. Once again showing your chosen freepname to be the most ironic one on FR.


8 posted on 05/26/2004 12:52:46 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Diddle E. Squat

Thankyou.


9 posted on 05/26/2004 12:54:03 AM PDT by dasboot
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To: LibWhacker
From the CNN article today:

The estimate of 18,000 fighters was based on intelligence estimates that al Qaeda trained at least 20,000 fighters in its training camps in Afghanistan before the United States and its allies ousted the Taliban regime. In the ensuing war on terror, some 2,000 al Qaeda fighters have been killed or captured, the survey said.

We're killing them off and they call it "revitalizing."

BTW, notice the date which they chose to use as a benchmark; October of 2001; I do believe that that would have meant that these horrible people trained on Bill Clinton's watch.

10 posted on 05/26/2004 12:55:11 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Diddle E. Squat

I have yet to understand how they seem to be "increasing" when their own numbers say we've knocked off 2000 of them!


11 posted on 05/26/2004 12:57:09 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: LibWhacker
Yeah, and I'm sure they're all highly trained, too.

If they don't pose a threat, why is Ashcroft having a news conference today to warn about big-time terrorism this summer?

12 posted on 05/26/2004 12:58:03 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff

The United States had no ongoing hostilities with any middle-eastern nation on 09/11. Evidently this 'think tank' (my a$$), thinks enduring those is a lot safer than taking it to the insects on their own soil. There's a lot of that going around these days. Cowards and fifth-columnists are a dime a dozen. To hell with each and every one of them. This is more of a stink tank than a think tank.


13 posted on 05/26/2004 12:58:06 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: DoughtyOne
this 'think tank' (my a$$)

Is that a brand name?

14 posted on 05/26/2004 12:58:55 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: churchillbuff
When you want to check a patient's pulse rate you have to palpate the pulse for several seconds, the longer the time you count the more accurate your results. If you grab a patient's wrist and only feel for a pulse for less than a second there's a better than even chance you'll come away with the conclusion that the patient has no pulse and is therefore dead. I view the Irag war in much the same way. Then events of any single hour or day or even a week can be misleading. It's pretty trendy right now for the left to use the line that our incursion into Iraq has really worked against our longer term security from terrorists. That might be true, but we won't know for some time to come. I don't think we can know right now how effective our moves against worldwide terrorism have really been. But I think our attacking them on a variety of fronts, not the least of which has been to mess with their funding and denying them at access to at least two countries that were willing to support them has got to be making their job more difficult! At this stage of the game that may be the best we can hope for. I think it's a lot like setting out to destroy a hornet's nest. Based on the first few seconds of the encounter it would certainly appear to have made matters worse, but come back in a short while, after the poison has had a chance to work its magic, and the scene will be entirely different. What had looked early on like a serious miscalculation will turn out to be a success. Much of what we hear from our enemies, both foreign and domestic, is just their attempts to convince themselves that they are right and we are wrong. We'll know a lot more about the wisdom of the administration's plan to combat terrorism than we do now, while the hornets haven't started to feel the effects of the spray we've hit them with. Come back in a year and let's see where things are!
15 posted on 05/26/2004 12:59:10 AM PDT by jwpjr
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To: Howlin
I have yet to understand how they seem to be "increasing" when their own numbers say we've knocked off 2000 of them!

Argue with Ashcroft. He's holding a press conference today, warning about terrorism this summer. Maybe this Strategic Studies report is on to something after all.

16 posted on 05/26/2004 12:59:35 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: Howlin

Do you really think we only took out 2,000 Taliban and Al Qaeda over the last year and change? Heh heh heh, someone's low-balling these figures. Don't believe this count for a moment.


17 posted on 05/26/2004 1:00:19 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: churchillbuff
If they don't pose a threat, why is Ashcroft having a news conference today to warn about big-time terrorism this summer?

Because we, unlike you, believe in fighting for this country, rather than lying down and letting them win, which is your choice.

18 posted on 05/26/2004 1:00:25 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: jwpjr
Come back in a year and let's see where things are!

Oh, I will -- provided we haven't been blown up by a WMD by then.

19 posted on 05/26/2004 1:00:29 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: Howlin
If they don't pose a threat, why is Ashcroft having a news conference today to warn about big-time terrorism this summer?

Maybe it's because Al Quade is alive and kicking (and energized by all the mess in Iraq)

20 posted on 05/26/2004 1:01:32 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: DB
Right. The mainstream liberal argument that "Fighting back against the attacking madmen makes the madmen mad" only makes me think we should kill the madmen even faster.

Human civilization had better get as serious about its survival as the seventh-century savages of Islam are about our annihilation.
21 posted on 05/26/2004 1:02:11 AM PDT by broadsword (Liberalism is the societal AIDS virus that helps our enemies to kill us.)
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To: churchillbuff
provided we haven't been blown up by a WMD by then.

I would have thought you'd be thrilled to death with that scenario.

And if we have, you won't have done anything to prevent it; all you do is try to divide us.

22 posted on 05/26/2004 1:02:19 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin
We're killing them off and they call it "revitalizing."

Yup, and I suspect many of the original al Qaeda "warriors" have decided to go home and stick to goat herding.

23 posted on 05/26/2004 1:02:50 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: Howlin
all you do is try to divide us.

Nope, I just agree with Gen. Schwarzkopf and other military brass who said invading Iraq was an unnecessary diversion from the war against Al Quade.

24 posted on 05/26/2004 1:03:42 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff
If they don't pose a threat, why is Ashcroft having a news conference today to warn about big-time terrorism this summer?

Who said that don't pose a threat? What I'm saying is that you're helping them by spreading their propaganda.

Maybe it's because Al Quade is alive and kicking (and energized by all the mess in Iraq)

And as I mentioned above, you seem thrilled by it, even though you have your facts wrong! I can almost see you smiling.

You're disgraceful.

25 posted on 05/26/2004 1:04:09 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin

Amen to that.

If the seventh-century savages are mutiplying at a fast rate, then we need to kill them at an even faster rate. Simple mathematics.

'nuff said.


26 posted on 05/26/2004 1:04:19 AM PDT by broadsword (Liberalism is the societal AIDS virus that helps our enemies to kill us.)
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To: LibWhacker
I suspect many of the original al Qaeda "warriors" have decided to go home and stick to goat herding.

Then Ashcroft's press conference today is an exercise in phony alarmism?

27 posted on 05/26/2004 1:04:35 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff

28 posted on 05/26/2004 1:04:55 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Howlin

This isn't a think tank. It's a group releasing more A.N.S.W.E.R. press releases that have been retyped and presented as a consensus by neutrals. These are throwbacks to the large european groups that championed communism and derided the U.S. as long as thirty-five years ago.


29 posted on 05/26/2004 1:05:41 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: churchillbuff

Oh, there are some out there still. No one has declared victory yet. But the replacements for ones we've killed and/or scared off are even more pathetic as fighters than the originals.


30 posted on 05/26/2004 1:05:44 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: Howlin
You're disgraceful.

Guess you think the same thing about Stormin Norman Schwarzkopf, Tom Clancy and others who I agree with on this issue.

31 posted on 05/26/2004 1:05:56 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff
...an unnecessary diversion from the war against Al Quade.

Al Quade? Is he related to Dennis Quade?
32 posted on 05/26/2004 1:06:06 AM PDT by broadsword (Liberalism is the societal AIDS virus that helps our enemies to kill us.)
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To: churchillbuff

I conclude that you are being provocative for sport, and that you really don't mean what you say: anyone who can log on to a computer can't be that dumb. Good joke...once. But it's kinda old.


33 posted on 05/26/2004 1:06:10 AM PDT by dasboot
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To: churchillbuff
Then Ashcroft's press conference today is an exercise in phony alarmism?

You're the only phony here.

Frankly, I'm stunned by the fact that it doesn't seem to bother you at all that they intend to kill each and every one of us and we better get them first.

34 posted on 05/26/2004 1:06:34 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: churchillbuff

Look, why don't you go and join ANSWER. They will love you.


35 posted on 05/26/2004 1:07:25 AM PDT by Texasforever (When Kerry was asked what kind of tree he would like to be he answered…. Al Gore.)
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To: Howlin
I'm stunned by the fact that it doesn't seem to bother you at all that they intend to kill each and every one of us and we better get them first.

Oh, it bothers me to no end - - which is why I opposed diverting our energies from the war on Al Quade, to an unnecessary invasion of Iraq, a fifth-rate power that had nothing to do with 9-11, as even Bush and Powell now admit.

36 posted on 05/26/2004 1:08:11 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: DoughtyOne

DO, I am convinced that all these people are the ones who tried to destroy this country in the 60's and now, having gotten a whiff of their love potion, defeatism, are back to finish her off.


37 posted on 05/26/2004 1:08:54 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: churchillbuff
Maybe it's because Al Quade is alive and kicking (and energized by all the mess in Iraq)

You would've argued that Hitler was energized by D-Day. We're winning. Give it up.

38 posted on 05/26/2004 1:09:40 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: churchillbuff
had nothing to do with 9-11, as even Bush and Powell now admit.

Post ANY words where George W. Bush said Iraq had anything to do with 9-11.

I'll wait.

39 posted on 05/26/2004 1:10:11 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: churchillbuff

And what were they "energized" about when they killed 3,000 in New York.

You surely can't be that foolish.


40 posted on 05/26/2004 1:11:41 AM PDT by DB (©)
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To: churchillbuff

See #30


41 posted on 05/26/2004 1:12:08 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: Howlin
channelnewsasia.com/ Couldn't find anything on Pravda?

Here's a wire report on the story:

Report: al-Qaida Ranks Swelling Worldwide Wed May 26,12:47 AM ET By BARRY RENFREW, Associated Press Writer LONDON - Far from being crippled by the U.S.-led war on terror, al-Qaida has more than 18,000 potential terrorists scattered around the world and the war in Iraq (news - web sites) is swelling its ranks, a report said Tuesday. AFP/File Photo Al-Qaida is probably working on plans for major attacks on the United States and Europe, and it may be seeking weapons of mass destruction in its desire to inflict as many casualties as possible, the International Institute of Strategic Studies said in its annual survey of world affairs. Osama bin Laden (news - web sites)'s network appears to be operating in more than 60 nations, often in concert with local allies, the study by the independent think tank said. Although about half of al-Qaida's top 30 leaders have been killed or captured, it has an effective leadership, with bin Laden apparently still playing a key role, it said. "Al-Qaida must be expected to keep trying to develop more promising plans for terrorist operations in North America and Europe, potentially involving weapons of mass destruction," IISS director Dr. John Chipman told a press conference releasing "Strategic Survey 2003/4." At the same time it will likely continue attacking "soft targets encompassing Americans, Europeans and Israelis, and aiding the insurgency in Iraq," he added. The report suggested that the two military centerpieces of the U.S.-led war on terror — the wars in Afghanistan (news - web sites) and Iraq — may have boosted al-Qaida. Driving the terror network out of Afghanistan in late 2001 appears to have benefited the group, which dispersed to many countries, making it almost invisible and hard to combat, the story said. And the Iraq conflict "has arguably focused the energies and resources of al-Qaida and its followers while diluting those of the global counterterrorism coalition that appeared so formidable" after the Afghan intervention, the survey said. The U.S. occupation of Iraq brought al-Qaida recruits from across Islamic nations, the study said. Up to 1,000 foreign Islamic fighters have infiltrated Iraqi territory, where they are cooperating with Iraqi insurgents, the survey said. Efforts to defeat al-Qaida will take time and might accelerate only if there are political developments that now seem elusive, such as the democratization of Iraq and the resolution of conflict in Israel, it said. It could take up to 500,000 U.S. and allied troops to effectively police Iraq and restore political stability, IISS researcher Christopher Langton told the news conference. Such a figure appeared impossible to meet, given political disquiet in the United States and Britain and the unwillingness of other nations to send troops, he said. The United States is al-Qaida's prime target in a war it sees as a death struggle between civilizations, the report said. An al-Qaida leader has said 4 million Americans will have to be killed "as a prerequisite to any Islamic victory," the survey said. "Al-Qaida's complaints have been transformed into religious absolutes and cannot be satisfied through political compromise," the study said. The London-based institute is considered the most important security think tank outside the United States. Its findings on al-Qaida's expanding structure and growing support by allied terrorist networks around the world track with similar assessments from governments and other experts. The IISS said its estimate of 18,000 al-Qaida fighters was based on intelligence estimates that the group trained at least 20,000 fighters in its camps in Afghanistan before the United States and its allies ousted the Taliban regime. In the ensuing war on terror, some 2,000 al-Qaida fighters have been killed or captured, the survey said. Al-Qaida appears to have successfully reconstituted its operations by dispersing its forces into small groups and through working with local allies, such as the Great Eastern Islamic Raiders' Front in Turkey, the report said. "Al-Qaida is the common ideological and logistical hub for disparate local affiliates, and bin Laden's charisma, presumed survival and elusiveness enhance the organization's iconic drawing power," it said.

42 posted on 05/26/2004 1:12:13 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: dasboot

Oh churchhillbuff does this day in and day out.


43 posted on 05/26/2004 1:12:25 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin
I'll wait.

Damn I think you have just driven him off FR. I can see it now, he is the first internet user to be googled to death trying to find Bush saying that Iraq had anything to do with 911.

44 posted on 05/26/2004 1:13:08 AM PDT by Texasforever (When Kerry was asked what kind of tree he would like to be he answered…. Al Gore.)
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To: churchillbuff

45 posted on 05/26/2004 1:13:22 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Texasforever

I have been told it's a she.


46 posted on 05/26/2004 1:14:18 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin

Wait for what?

Old age?


47 posted on 05/26/2004 1:14:20 AM PDT by DB (©)
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To: Texasforever
Look, why don't you go and join ANSWER.

Because I'm not a leftist. I hold the same views on this Iraq invasion - - that it was an unnecessary diversion from the war against Al Quade -- that Norman Schwarzkopf and Tom Clancy hold. They're not leftists, either. Both supported Bush (as did I -- and I'll vote for Bush again, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to keep pointing out that the Iraq invasion was a big mistake)

48 posted on 05/26/2004 1:14:26 AM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff

Let me see, we have a nation located between Iran and Syria, and in close proximity to Afghanistan and a few other Moslem states. Husseing was providing cash to Palestinian suicide bomber's familes. He was embezzeling billions. He was spouting off against the United States and promising to support our most ardent enemies. When asked to provide evidence he had destroyed his WMDs, he refused. He refused for over a decade. Then we were attacked.

Bud, if you think Hussein was someone we should have allowed to stay in power, then your basicly unqualified to contribute to this forum.

The list of good things that have taken place in Iraq over the last year is very long. If you don't know that, then you've just proven my comment. If Schwartzkoff doesn't know it, then he should be happy to be retired, and get back to spinning more flies for fly fishing.

Clancy has committed Harry Carry, and now I guess others have decided it's time for them to do so as well. It's sad, but if they want to destroy any respect most of us had for them, it's a free country.

I might add, Iraq is not the last nation we need to liberate.

Iran and Syria are prime candidates, and if they are too stupid to pull a Khadaffy, then they'll deserve whatever they get.

Jordan can tell you, that refusing to get involved in this war on terror, didn't stop them from being targeted. But for the grace of God, they would have had upwards of 80,000 casualties. So much for wimping out. It just doesn't work.


49 posted on 05/26/2004 1:14:31 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: churchillbuff
. . . to an unnecessary invasion of Iraq, a fifth-rate power that had nothing to do with 9-11 . . .

You're blind.

50 posted on 05/26/2004 1:14:50 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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