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IRAQ'S NEXT GOVERNMENT

By AMIR TAHERI
NYPost.com

May 27, 2004 -- BY the end of next week, and if all goes well, we should know the composition of the transitional government that will assume power in Baghdad for six crucial months leading to the country's first ever free elections.
"The principles upon which the transition government will be based have already been agreed," says Hoshyar Zebari, the current foreign minister. "The new government will represent our national will to end the occupation as soon as possible."

Once announced, the package will receive the assent of the U.N. Security Council in the form of a new resolution. Under the agreements negotiated by U.N. Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, the new government will have three layers of authority.

At the top will be a president to symbolize Iraq's national sovereignty. His role will be largely ceremonial, although he would be able to intervene at difficult moments to sort out blockages within the government.

There will also be two vice presidents, one Kurdish and one Arab, as has been the tradition in Iraq for more than three decades. Their role, too, will be largely ceremonial — but they will be preparing their respective communities for a national concord conference expected to be held before the end of the year.

The second layer of authority will be a Council of Ministers, headed by a prime minister and with 16 members. Its work will be based on the principle of collective responsibility after the British model. In other words the prime minister, although able to set the agenda, won't be able to decide alone. And all decisions of the Cabinet will have to receive presidential assent before being implemented.

Despite suggestions by Brahimi that the proposed Cabinet consist solely of non-political technocrats, Iraqi and American sources insist that the main structure of the new body will include a number of tested politicians. Some current ministers (defense, foreign affairs and the interior) are likely to continue in their posts, others (finance and economic) to be replaced.

The third layer of authority may not be in place by June 30 when the government is sworn in: an interim legislative council whose members will be co-opted from all walks of life and in a way as to represent the nation's ethnic, religious and sectarian diversity.

The interim legislative council, expected to have 150 members, will have the task of approving the new electoral law and legislate those of the Cabinet's decisions that need a specific legal framework for application.

A committee of experts, already at work on proposals for an electoral law, is expected to present its report to the new transition government early in June. Once the Cabinet has approved the committee's recommendations, the final package would have to be approved by the legislative council.

Right now, the target date for this happening is sometime in November, allowing the country just three months to prepare for a general election. The entire electoral process will be under the supervision of an Electoral Commission which is expected to be formed by mid-summer.

The commission will operate in conjunction with an international Iraq Elections Supervisory Mission to be led by a senior diplomat. Among those under consideration is the European Union's Chris Patten.

Some Iraqi politicians insist that observers from other international bodies also be invited to join the United Nations in supervising the elections. Among those considered are the Organization of the Islamic Conference, the Arab League, the Non-aligned movement and the European Union.

The method under which elections will be held is the subject of heated behind-the-scenes debates among various Iraqi parties and the Coalition authority led by Paul Bremer.

Most of the Shiite parties want a first-past-the-post British-style electoral system based on single- or multiple-member constituencies. Such a system could give the Shiites up to 75 percent of seats in any future parliament, far beyond their 60 percent or so of the total population.

The system could also benefit the two main Kurdish parties. They could end up with almost a quarter of the seats, although the population of the areas they control is no more than 15 percent of the total.

On the other hand, if proportional representation is the method of election, the Kurds could end up as big losers. This is because the regions where they are the majority also include large non-Kurdish minorities, notably Turcomans, Assyrians and Yazidis.

Shiite leaders reject any analysis based on sectarian differences. "We are all Iraqis," says Muhammad Bahr al-Olum, a leading Shiite political and religious figure. "We must have an electoral system that reflects the reality of our country, and create a government that all Iraqis will see as their own."

The Coalition authorities claim that they are neutral on the subject. "The way the elections will be conducted is a matter for the Iraqis," says Richard Jones, Bremer's deputy and the U.S. ambassador to Kuwait.

But the Coalition will be forced to take a position on this issue. It now seems to favor a system of multi-member constituencies with simple majority rule. That would still slightly favor the Shiites but will also make sure that no single bloc emerges with an overwhelming majority.

Although the planned parliament will be one of transition, it will have a crucial importance insofar as it will have the task of approving the draft of a new permanent constitution.

Iraq today is in a position that few other nations have found themselves in history.

All the pillars of the various despotic regimes that have ruled Iraq since its creation have disappeared. There is no army, no security apparatus worth mentioning. The ruling party is gone, along with the idea of the "strongman." The dominant political, economic and cultural elites have been blown away, along with methods of government established over decades. By one estimate more than two-thirds of all laws will have to be repealed or amended.

"We must build a new state from the very foundations," says Zebari. "The first bricks we pose will determine the shape of the whole structure."

Some Iraqis, worried sick about lack of security, might be tempted to build a new version of the "strongman state" that always led to tyranny and terror. Others know that this is an historic opportunity that no Arab nation has ever had: to build a democratic state in close consultation with the people.

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/21670.htm
In just 35 days, Iraq's new flag will fly high and its new national anthem will be played, including at the Athens Olympics. But flags and anthems are nothing but symbols. What matters is the content of the new state the Iraqis will build. The world will be watching. And praying.

Amir Taheri is reachable through benadorassociates.com.