Research Refines Homicide Statistics (poverty causes high murder rates)

Los Angeles Times ^ | June 4, 2004 | Jill Leovy

[sarcasm]

Los Angeles has been called the murder capital of the United States. But a new study of homicide rates that takes poverty into account challenges this notion: By this new measure, Los Angeles actually falls nearer the middle of the pack for homicide rates — 24th on a list of 67 large American cities in 2002, and 42nd on the same list in 2003.

That put Los Angeles just below Chicago and Dallas for 2002, and just above Denver and Philadelphia — although there were 653 killings in Los Angeles that year, the most of any city in the nation. After Los Angeles homicides fell by 23% in 2003, the city's ranking dropped even further, placing it closer to Tucson and Milwaukee. The finding suggests that Los Angeles' large number of homicides can mostly be explained by its high poverty rate and other demographic characteristics.

< SNIP >

Los Angeles remains a relatively dangerous city, with a crude homicide rate of about 17 deaths per 100,000 people in 2002, and 13 per 100,000 in 2003. But poverty and demographics account for most of this rate, the researchers concluded. And in 2003, Los Angeles actually had fewer homicides than would be expected based on its demographic profile

[sarcasm]

Spend more money on welfare - that'll solve the problem.

[blanknoone]

But poverty and demographics account for most of this rate,

Interesting causation vs correlation substitution. Why don't they conclude that the murder rate accounts for the demographics (white flight) and poverty (business risk)? Or why don't they conclude that the demographics causes the poverty (language skills) and murder rate (I'm not going to touch this).

The point is that they point to conclusions without reason. Correlated, quite probably, but it is far from the simple causation they suggest. If nothing else, they are self reinforcing. Statistics turned into drivel for the sheep.

[KeyWest]

Agree. In essence they say poverty causes crime but here in LA it does not. Cannot have it both ways.

[tkathy]

The problem is never money. A lack of decent leadership, breakdown of the family, vast chaotic social problems...

[B4Ranch]

In Los Angeles, 95 percent of all outstanding warrants for homicide (which total 1,200 to 1,500) target illegal aliens. Up to two-thirds of all fugitive felony warrants (17,000) are for illegal aliens.

In 2000, nearly 30 percent of federal prisoners were foreign-born.

[tcostell]

An even newer study of homicide rates which takes other totally extraneous data into account places them back up at the top of the list ...just slightly ahead of Khartoum, and Caracas.

(when you disagree with the result, change the data)

[GailA]

Then why wasn't crime and homicides RAMPANT during the DEPRESSION?????????????

[kittymyrib]

Crime rates during the Great Depression were very low. Back then, people had moral training and parents who knew how to rear children to be civilized.

[ought-six]

This is liberal escapism and bullsh!t. During the depression crime was low (aside from the well-publicized gangster violence), and people were a hell of a lot worse off then than they are now. It's not poverty, it's attitude and irresponsibility and unaccountability that are the causes of the huge crime rate in America, and all three of those causes are directly laid at the feet of the liberal mindset.

[PGalt]

Mainstream propaganda is cancer of the mind.

[M. Dodge Thomas]

Crime rates during the Great Depression were very low

Well, no.

While there is considerable debate about the accuracy of comparisons across the 20th century, the consensus is that reported crime rates remained pretty stable between the century's start and the end of WWI, rose at around a 5% rate in the 20s, increased to 7% rate the 30s, and then rose ar around a 10% rate post WWII. The most dramatic increases were in property crimes (which probably reflects the general increase in affluence) the biggest decrease was in "public nuisance" crimes such as drunkenness and prostitution.

The depression years were no sort of vacation from criminal activity; for example the press of the period contains frequent descriptions of the problems created by unemployed men who left their homes in search of work and eventually turned to property crimes to support themselves - the WPA was created in large part to help deal with this problem by paying such men a small stipend to relocate to work camps where they could more easily be supervised.

[r9etb]

The problem is never money. A lack of decent leadership, breakdown of the family, vast chaotic social problems...

Of course, it would never do to admit that those underlying causes are probably a good start for explaining both poverty and high murder rates....