248,000 payroll jobs added in May; Jobless rate: 5.6%

CNBC | Friday, June 4, 2004

[JohnHuang2]

Employment Situation Summary

Technical information:
   Household data:  (202) 691-6378    USDL 04-996
           http://www.bls.gov/cps/

   Establishment data:    691-6555    Transmission of material in this release 
           http://www.bls.gov/ces/    is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EDT),
Media contact:            691-5902    Friday, June 4, 2004.
                                        
                                        
                       THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:  MAY 2004
                                        
   Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in May, and the unemployment
rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.
Department of Labor reported today.  The May increase in payroll employment
follows gains of 346,000 in April and 353,000 in March (as revised).  Job
growth in May again was widespread, as increases continued in construction,
manufacturing, and several service-providing industries.
   
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
   
   The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million
in May, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent.  The unemployment rate
has been either 5.6 or 5.7 percent in each month since December 2003.  The
unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), adult
women (4.8 percent), teenagers (17.2 percent), whites (5.0 percent), blacks
(9.9 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (7.0 percent)--were little changed in
May.  The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.2 percent, not seasonally ad-
justed.  (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
   
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
   
   Total employment was 138.8 million in May, and the employment-population
ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs--remained
at 62.2 percent.  The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.9 per-
cent for the fourth consecutive month.  (See table A-1.)
   
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
   
   The number of persons who were marginally attached to the labor force was
1.5 million in May, about the same as a year earlier.  (Data are not season-
ally adjusted.)  These individuals wanted and were available to work and had
looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.  They were not counted as
unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4
weeks preceding the survey.  There were 476,000 discouraged workers in May,
also about the same as a year earlier.  Discouraged workers, a subset of the
marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because
they believed no jobs were available for them.  The other 1.1 million margin-
ally attached had not searched for work for reasons such as school or family
responsibilities.  (See table A-13.)

                                  - 2 -

Table A.  Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
______________________________________________________________________________
                         |    Quarterly    |                          |
                         |    averages     |        Monthly data      |
                         |_________________|__________________________| Apr.-
        Category         |  2003  | 2004 1/|           2004           | May
                         |________|________|__________________________|change
                         |   IV   |   I    |  Mar.  |  Apr.  |  May   |
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
     HOUSEHOLD DATA      |                 Labor force status
                         |____________________________________________________
Civilian labor force.....| 146,986| 146,661| 146,650| 146,741| 146,974|    233
  Employment.............| 138,369| 138,388| 138,298| 138,576| 138,772|    196
  Unemployment...........|   8,616|   8,273|   8,352|   8,164|   8,203|     39
Not in labor force.......|  75,290|  75,695|  75,900|  76,016|  75,993|    -23
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |                 Unemployment rates
                         |____________________________________________________
All workers..............|     5.9|     5.6|     5.7|     5.6|     5.6|    0.0
  Adult men..............|     5.5|     5.1|     5.2|     5.0|     5.2|     .2
  Adult women............|     5.1|     5.0|     5.1|     5.0|     4.8|    -.2
  Teenagers..............|    16.3|    16.6|    16.5|    16.9|    17.2|     .3
  White..................|     5.1|     5.0|     5.1|     4.9|     5.0|     .1
  Black or African       |        |        |        |        |        |
    American.............|    10.7|    10.1|    10.2|     9.7|     9.9|     .2
  Hispanic or Latino     |        |        |        |        |        |
    ethnicity............|     7.1|     7.4|     7.4|     7.2|     7.0|    -.2
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
  ESTABLISHMENT DATA     |                     Employment
                         |____________________________________________________
Nonfarm employment.......| 130,002| 130,367| 130,630|p130,976|p131,224|   p248
  Goods-producing 2/.....|  21,676|  21,719|  21,778| p21,830| p21,902|    p72
    Construction.........|   6,766|   6,819|   6,853|  p6,872|  p6,909|    p37
    Manufacturing........|  14,340|  14,326|  14,344| p14,373| p14,405|    p32
  Service-providing 2/...| 108,326| 108,648| 108,852|p109,146|p109,322|   p176
    Retail trade.........|  14,915|  14,974|  15,013| p15,041| p15,060|    p19
    Professional and     |        |        |        |        |        |
      business services..|  16,114|  16,202|  16,237| p16,367| p16,431|    p64
    Education and health |        |        |        |        |        |
      services...........|  16,705|  16,774|  16,813| p16,852| p16,896|    p44
    Leisure and          |        |        |        |        |        |
      hospitality........|  12,172|  12,239|  12,271| p12,313| p12,353|    p40
    Government...........|  21,549|  21,540|  21,553| p21,574| p21,547|   p-27
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |                  Hours of work 3/
                         |____________________________________________________
Total private............|    33.7|    33.8|    33.8|   p33.8|   p33.8|   p0.0
  Manufacturing..........|    40.6|    41.0|    40.9|   p40.7|   p41.1|    p.4
    Overtime.............|     4.4|     4.6|     4.6|    p4.6|    p4.7|    p.1
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |    Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100) 3/
                         |____________________________________________________
Total private............|    98.7|    99.3|    99.5|   p99.9|  p100.2|   p0.3
                         |________|________|________|________|________|_______
                         |                    Earnings 3/
                         |____________________________________________________
Avg. hourly earnings,    |        |        |        |        |        |
  total private..........|  $15.45|  $15.52|  $15.55| p$15.59| p$15.64| p$0.05
Avg. weekly earnings,    |        |        |        |        |        |
  total private..........|  520.55|  524.58|  525.59| p526.94| p528.63|  p1.69
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______

   1  Beginning in January 2004, household data reflect revised population
controls used in the Current Population Survey.
   2  Includes other industries, not shown separately.
   3  Data relate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.
   p=preliminary.
                                  - 3 -
   
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

   Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in May to 131.2 million,
seasonally adjusted.  Since its recent low in August 2003, payroll employment
has risen by 1.4 million; 947,000 of this increase occurred over the last 3
months.  Job growth was widespread in May, with gains continuing in construc-
tion, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries.  (See table
B-1.)
   
   In May, construction employment increased by 37,000, with most of the gain
occurring in specialty trade contracting and the construction of buildings.
Since March 2003, the construction industry has added about a quarter-million
jobs.

   Manufacturing employment grew by 32,000 in May.  Since January, manufactur-
ing as added 91,000 jobs, mostly in its durable goods component.  In May, em-
ployment rose in three construction-related manufacturing industries:  fabri-
cated metal products, wood products, and nonmetallic mineral products (such
as concrete and cement).  Employment also increased in computer and electronic
products.
   
   Mining employment continued to rise in May.  Since January, the industry
has added 18,000 jobs.
   
   In the service-providing sector, professional and business services added
64,000 jobs in May.  Employment in temporary help services continued to rise
(31,000) and has grown by 299,000 (or 14 percent) since April 2003.
   
   Strong employment increases in health care and social assistance continued
in May with a gain of 36,000.  Over the year, this industry has added 274,000
jobs.  Hospitals and ambulatory health care services, such as outpatient care
centers, accounted for two-thirds of May's employment gain.
   
   Within the leisure and hospitality industry, food services added 33,000 jobs
over the month.  Since the beginning of the year, employment in food services
has increased by an average of 32,000 a month, more than double the average
monthly increase in 2003.
   
   Employment in financial activities rose by 15,000 in May, reflecting con-
tinued increases in real estate and in credit intermediation.  Retail employ-
ment continued to trend upward in May; over the year, the industry has added
142,000 jobs.  Within retail trade, employment edged up in May in building
material and garden supply stores, food and beverage stores, and clothing
stores.  Wholesale trade employment also edged up in May; the industry has
added 55,000 jobs since October 2003.
   
   In the information sector, telecommunications employment was down by 5,000
in May.  Since its peak in March 2001, the telecommunications industry has shed
283,000 jobs, a fifth of its total.

                                  - 4 -

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

   The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in May at 33.8 hours, seasonally adjusted.  The
manufacturing workweek increased by 0.4 hour to 41.1 hours, more than offset-
ting declines in March and April.  Manufacturing overtime edged up by 0.1 hour
to 4.7 hours in May.  (See table B-2.)
   
   The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.3 percent in May to 100.2 (2002=100).
The manufacturing index was up by 1.3 percent over the month to 95.5.  (See
table B-5.)                                

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

   Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents in May to $15.64, seasonally adjusted.  Aver-
age weekly earnings were up by 0.3 percent over the month to $528.63.  Over
the year, average hourly earnings grew by 2.2 percent, and average weekly earn-
ings increased by 2.5 percent.  (See table B-3.)


                         ______________________________


   The Employment Situation for June 2004 is scheduled to be released on Friday,
July 2, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).

Tom Daschle was reportedly "Deeply, deeply saddened" at the news.

;-)

[COEXERJ145]

I was listening to CBS radio news this morning (yeah I know but See-BS is the news provider for our local talk radio station) and after saying how many jobs were created, they went off on how the unemployment rate is still high and how the job market isn't recovering very much.

[Coop]

5.6 under President Bush = high

5.6 under the Impeached Rapist = best economy in the history of the free world

[AFPhys]

You're exactly right about this. You and I are not in the "battleground states" and we will not be able to judge the effectiveness of the campaign.

Unfortunately for those of us in CA and NY and some other virtually "lost" states, we must nevertheless help to pay the bills while not being able to witness the fun. That is the way national campaigns are now run, and won.
.

[KC_Conspirator]

I used to live in MO, just moved last Feb. so I know exactly what kind of battleground state tactics the parties will use. What I am noticing though are the awful poll numbers for Bush, American's perceptions that the economy and WOT are bad, and the lackluster state polls coming out.

[Go Gordon]

Oh, he will. It's too early yet. He's very clever and he knows that timing is everything. Give it another six weeks or so and he'll start slipping it in there.

Just before the RAT convention seems to be a well timed start to mega advertising the economy.

[RogerWilko]

I've been listening to the radio all morning and I've noticed on every report that this may mean we're on the fast track to higher interest rates. The losers can't help themselves by trying to put a bad spin on whatever good news comes out!

You can bet your a** that if this were Klintoon, we wouldn't hear a PEEP from the media except for how fantastic this is and the economy is just BOOMING!

[BlessedByLiberty]

Great news!

I'll believe the economy is bad when I see Michael Moore skinny and starving in the streets, until then...

[BlessedByLiberty]

That would make a great commercial to reach the squishy middle. Please ping me if you get it done. Thanks!

[Law is not justice but process]

I is quite possible. Here are the numbers:

January 2001 employment was 132,388,000 and May 2004 employment was 131,224,000 (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics employer survey). Therefore, we need to add 1,165,000 new jobs in four months to show a net increase.

Unfortunately, the employment numbers for October will be reported 3 days after the election, so only June, July, August, and September numbers will be reported by the election. Average job growth for the last three months was 316,000 per month. If that rate continues, we will show a net increase in jobs during Bush's term by the time of the election, albeit a small one (actually, an average of 292,000 per month would be adequate).

Of course it would be fairer to measure January 2001 to January 2005. Only a disaster (knock on wood) could prevent a net job gain over that term.

Keep in mind, though, that even if we show a net gain over Bush's term, the Democrats will still argue that the gain was not adequate to account for population growth.

Another interesting statistic, the last time we had as many jobs as we have today was September 2001. I am certain we would already have a net gain of jobs in the Bush Administration had Sept. 11 never happened.

[Irish Eyes]

I'm going out to look for the WMD now. The way things are going, I'll probably find 'em.

Good hunting looks as if we are on a roll.

[Peach]

The economy has been doing better for some time and even Cokie Roberts on the George Stephapolous show a few weeks ago said if the Democrats would stop trying to talk it down, it would be doing even better.

Rush Limbaugh may have his faults, but he's right when he says "What's bad for America is what's good for Democrats".

[Poohbah]

TDIDS & WGIDS

[MeekOneGOP]

hehe! Howdy! :^D

[jveritas]

Great ad idea.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Notice something about this report:

1. March originally was reported as 308K, then was revised upward to 338K in last month's report, now is revised upward to 353K.
2. April originally reported at 288K is now revised upward to 346K.
3. May initially reports in at 248K.

Notice a pattern? Want to bet that next month both April and May will be revised upward? We are in the knee of the curve right now. This is bad news for Kerry.

[GOPJ]

It's a sad day for democrats. Thanks for the ping.

[NYC Republican]

Thanks

[AndyTheBear]

Wait a minute, its just one, er...two, er...three, er four or so months of good news. THIS IS NOT A TREND!