Yes, it is a long shot.
However, you can NEVER win by being pessimistic. If the NYS Conservative Party won the U.S. Senate race with James Buckley in 1970, why can't they do it again?
Before you dismiss it as pessimism, who are the Pubs going to nominate? Prove to me that giving my vote to a third party is a good idea this time around. The burden of proof is on you. Otherwise we have, not a case of pessimism, but of fanciful optimism.