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To: r9etb
I personally think "privitization" is bound to fail except in cases where government R&D has already been done,

Burt Rutan would probably disagree with you.

Please note that Scaled Composites, like the other X-Prize contestants, is doing it's own R&D. Precisely because they don't have the sums to throw around that governments do, they have to find a different way--smaller, faster cheaper.

And yes, I know the X-Prize is not an orbital shot. But I expect there will be an X2, and an X3. And at every stage, I imagine, there will be one or more Burt Rutans to take up the challenge.

20 posted on 06/15/2004 10:33:30 AM PDT by TigerTale (From the streets of Tehran to the Gulf of Oman, let freedom ring.)
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To: TigerTale

21 Jun is the first scheduled spaceflight. Can the second be 22 Jun or would it take longer to prepare the SpaceShipOne?


21 posted on 06/15/2004 10:50:25 AM PDT by RightWhale (Destroy the dark; restore the light)
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To: TigerTale
Please note that Scaled Composites, like the other X-Prize contestants, is doing it's own R&D. Precisely because they don't have the sums to throw around that governments do, they have to find a different way--smaller, faster cheaper.

Other than the X-prize itself, Burt Rutan cannot make money on his SS-1. The "tourist" dollar will tap itself out pretty quickly, and there are a lot cheaper ways to do "useful" sub-orbital stuff.

And yes, I know the X-Prize is not an orbital shot. But I expect there will be an X2, and an X3. And at every stage, I imagine, there will be one or more Burt Rutans to take up the challenge.

There's the rub. Can there be an orbital X2? I really don't think his current design will carry over to one that can reach orbit, and survive re-entry multiple times -- there are some basic issues of scale and structure that will make the X2 far more complex and expensive than the SS-1. Would it be cost-effective to build and operate? Would it be reliable enough? Are there enough customers to support an X2-building company? These are real questions, and Rutan's design does not address them.

29 posted on 06/15/2004 11:01:11 AM PDT by r9etb
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