Get out of here.
I'm serious. It's shocking how close the numbers correlate. Most polls have MOEs of 3-4%. This has a MOE half that. But, like I said, it all depends on whether 2004 is like 1984, 1992, and 1996-- the last three re-election campaign years. If Iraq dominates in a negative way-- a global turmoil dynamic-- the calculation probably won't be predictive.