Interesting scenario on Japan, which brings this question: How would China react if Japan announced it was going full out to re-arm.
What scares China more - a large Japanese navy, a giant expenditure on fighter aircraft or re-invigorating a few dozen divisions of samurai grunts?
Does Japan have a defense treaty with Taiwan?
How might Japan react to an invasion of Taiwan by China? Simple hand wringing or might the Japanese invade the Sprattley Islands and throw the ChiComs out??
I know I'm asking you to play crystal ball wizard, but it's always interesting to speculate.
Japan seems to maintain a very unique relationship with Taiwan. Unlike other areas which Japan conquered from the late 1800s on, those ethnic Chinese and other non Chinese who were living on Taiwan prior to 1945 do not seem to harbor much ill will toward Japan. Many proudly speak Japanese and are quite well versed in Japanese cultural elements. This is a cause of rage on the part of Chinese who live on the mainland as well as even some KMT who live on Taiwan. I have reviewed the Asiawind forum (see link on my links page)and from time to time, they all get into bellyaching mode about how "Japenese Imperialists" on Taiwan want to foment "separatist" mentality and how it is part of a supposed conspiracy to create a new neo-Bushido Japan. From my perspective, what they are doing is talking themselves into prewar hatred of Japan (and Japanophile Taiwanese) and, by proxy, the West. I hope I am wrong - however, it really does resemble the way Stalin prepped his population for war and the way Hitler did the same.