Canada As USA 2000 Redux? (Canadian Markets Look At Cliffhanger Election)

Shorecanindex.com ^ | 06/23/04 | Canadian Markets/Shorecan

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Shorcan Index Election Indicator

Prices updated hourly.

Last update at 23/06/04 16:00

Bid Offer Change

Liberals 32.2 33.2 -0.20

Conservatives 31.8 32.8 +0.30

NDP 17.3 17.8 +0.20

Bloc Québécois 11.8 12.3 -0.10

Green Party 5.1 5.6 +0.20

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The markets have been much more accurate in predicting election outcomes than polls. The latest results from Shorecan show the Liberals and Conservatives in Canada in a dead heat contest leading up to Monday's 38th Federal General Election, with the Conservatives gaining shares. Who will win? Or will it be the USA 2000 Redux in Canada? Stay tuned.

[John Lenin]

Does anybody but me find it strange that the whole world is having razor thin elections ?

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An even division of seats between the major parties, if one of them does not break through to majority party territory by Election Day, would see the Bloc being the kingmaker party in Canadian politics. The Liberals and NDP would not have enough seats to form a majority coalition government and the Conservatives have no natural partner on their right. It could make for a couple of interesting months, with a new election by the fall, in the event this markets take on the election holds up next Monday.

[goldstategop]

The Left can't win outright. Here Kerry would get 51% at the most but he hasn't led in the markets since trading on the general election opened on them. President Bush still has 52% of the shares in Sportstrading and the Iowa Political Futures Markets. This is the Canadian version of them.

[John Lenin]

The powers that be are scared, thats my take on what's going down.

[conservative in nyc]

This seems more in line with the recent Evironics poll, within one percentage point for each party. Since that poll was taken over the last week (6 days) instead of over a three day period that included last Sunday (like the Ipsos/Globe and Mail poll), it's probably more reliable. Kerry got a huge boost from Rasmussen's Sunday polling in the United States --- enough to temporarily put him in the lead in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll.

If the percentages stand, the Conservatives will probably take 120-130 seats and the Liberals around 100. This is in part because the Canadian average percentages mask regional differences. The Liberals are out-polling the Conservatives 2-1 in Quebec, which has roughly 25% of the Canadian population. That means they are weaker elsewhere. But they still are getting slaughtered in practically every Quebec riding by the Bloc. Couple that with the NDP splitting the liberal vote in close ridings, and you could conceivably have an election where the Conservatives don't even win the largest share of the vote, but take the greatest number of seats (but still short of a majority).

Still trending Conservative minority government, if you ask me.

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You're wrong on Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois has a towering 30 point lead over the Liberals in the Province. They will probably win every seat outside Montreal and probably take the few Montreal ridings that aren't English-speaking too. It looks like the Liberals will be left with 15-20 of the 75 seats there on Monday. Combine that with the loss of half their ridings in Ontario, they will be lucky to get the national total up to 100. Right now the two major parties are neck in neck.

[conservative in nyc]

I'm not sure how I'm wrong (or even how we disagree) on Quebec. I said the Liberals have a 2-1 lead over the Conservatives, but the Bloc is killing both. I brought up the 2-1 Liberal "lead" in Quebec stat only to show that even if the election is a statistical tie nationwide, the Liberal's lead over the Conservatives in places where it is meaningless (like Quebec, where they will lose to the Bloc and urban ridings, where the main fight is the NDP) really means that the Conservatives will win more seats than the Liberals come Monday.

I think you're being charitable if you think the Liberals will be left with 15-20 seats in Quebec. They could conceivably be down to less than 10 when the votes are counted. They truly are getting slaughtered there.

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There's a general consensus the Conservatives will more seats even if the Liberals maintain a 5 point lead in Ontario. With their getting slaughtered in Quebec, there's no way the latter can form another majority government. While the general trend favors the Conservatives, the twist is the Liberals could still remain in power even if they win fewer seats than the Conservatives on Monday, if they can form a majority coalition government with the NDP. The reason is that under Canada's parliamentary system, a Cabinet can stay in office until the Prime Minister resigns or dies. In an American election, a President or Governor has to be sworn in all over again. A Canadian Prime Minister does not. So unless the Liberals are badly mauled on Monday, Prime Minister Paul Martin could remain on the job at the head of a Liberal minority government if he can convince the Governor General he can command the support of a majority in the House Of Commons. Stephen Harper would have to do very well to become Canada's next Prime Minister.

[conservative in nyc]

I suspect the Ontario numbers are a bit skewed by strong Liberal support in urban Toronto, Hamilton, Windsor, etc., and real horseraces in the rest of the province. Have there been any generic polls of the 905 ridings? That's where the election will be won. I've always liked the Conservatives chances there, since in the prior two elections, the Progressive Conservative and Reform/Canadian Aliance candidates combined usually would have beaten the Liberal candidate.

We know most of Quebec is going to the Bloc and Alberta and the Prairies look to be strong for the Conservatives. On the other hand, the Maritimes are a toss-up in the most recent polls. And the NDP is doing fairly well in B.C., which is also statistically a toss-up, but I suspect the NDP support is limited to Vancouver city and maybe Vancouver Island, and the Conservatives will take the suburban and rural B.C. ridings, while the NDP and Liberals duke it out over the Vancouver ridings with the Conservatives coming in third.

It's going to be an interesting election to watch on Monday. Current projections show that Liberals + NDP will not win a majority of seats, foreclosing any possibility of Martin holding on to power unless he cuts a deal with the Bloc or Tories. He's piped down on that subject, fearing it will alienate voters.

[conservative in nyc]

Anything is possible in this election. The Liberals are trying their best to scare NDP voters into voting for them. It's unclear whether that tactic will work. Negative ads have backfired in Canada in the past. The most recent polls show the NDP steady at around 18%.

The Environics poll also showed a high percentage of undecided voters (20%). It's not clear how they will break, or if they will vote at all.

[Calvin Locke]

Does anybody but me find it strange that the whole world is having razor thin elections ?

Nah. In spite of the constant media and educational views of Potemkin Utopias under socialism/communism, eventually
reality hammers its way into the media-numbed brains of quite a number of people.

Current PM Paul Martin is a liberal that finally deposed the Clinton-like Chretien. But Martin is still from what passes
for the good ol' boy liberal cadre in Canada.

Harper doesn't get much press in the US, and what he does probably is filtered through the state-run CBC, on which
I heard a Canadian talking head issue a dire speculative warning that a Harper government might *GASP* cut funding
for the CBC.

I get a couple of Canadian tv stations, and occasionally watch their news, but usually half-listen to the
shortwave export version for the international news not usually mentioned in the US media.

Anyway, when it come to their US news, they appear to follow DNC talking points, for the most part.