Which view is correct? I wish I knew.
The answer is both and neither and don't know which dominates. And the net effect is to increase the polarization on both sides.
The moderates who see this in rural texas are going to bump into enough people and facts to refute this propaganda, recognize it as such and be repulsed by it. The moderates who see this on the upper west side of manhattan are never going to here it disputed and accept it face value and turn against Bush. The moderates who see this in Western PA and OH? Could go either way, and likely it will go both ways on a case by case basis.
End results: R areas become more R, D areas become more D, partisanship increases, the swing areas diminish slightly.
And the all important how does this affect moderates in swing states is unknown.
ed koch, former dem mayor of NY wrote a review in which he really attacked moore for supporting the terrorists.
although i live on long island, the only person i have heard mention the movie was my wife's in-law from CT who is going to see it. at a party we had where virtually eveyone else was a democrat who hates Bush (this is NY, remember), no one else even mentioned the film, even when they were attacking Bush! i don't think many people even know or care who moore is.