CBS News Poll: Bush 44, Kerry 45

CBS News ^

[Vinomori]

great post and insightful comment......thank you!!!!

[RW1974]

Yeah, they always couch it in negative terms. What I find really strange is that this poll has W's approval rating at 42%, but 44% are planning to vote for him. What does that say about Kerry? That there are millions of people who dislike Kerry so much that they're going to vote for W even though they don't like the job he's doing? LOL. Not very encouraging for the Dems.

[Vinomori]

You would think a wartime incumbent would have at least a 5-10 pt lead

That's the whole problem. This is NOT wartime, according to the media and the world, this is Unnecessary Invasion Time. That's the whole problem right there. But Bush will win, so who cares?

[POA2]

Exactly - CBS polls are the worst of them all - Period.

This is actually good news for GWB - the only thing it proves is that GWB has had a bounce his way -

No way is GWB approval rating 42%....yet he has seen a 7 pt swing his way - CBS is a biased joke.

Their negative coverage of todays events in Iraq are pitiful.

[catpuppy]

I believe that Kerry and company have tried everything but have yet to lay a glove on President Bush. A Republican counter attack is coming. I don't think that Senator Kerry can withstand a daily barrage of his own quotes and votes.

[Congressman Billybob]

"Likely" voters are a subset of "registered" voters. Those who are not registered (or at least who admit that they aren't) are excluded as "likely" voters. To get from "registered"to "likely," pollsters use known formulae from past elections.

Older people are more likely to vote. So are better educated. So are wealthier. So are more religious. And these are categories more likely to vote Republican.

The opposites of all these groups are LESS likely to vote, and more likely to vote Democrat. That explains why the leftist, lamestream media usually use "registered" voters, because it makes the Democrats look stronger. Pollsters who work for candidates need to be more accurate, so they use the formulae to estimate "likely" voters.

Does that make it reasonably clear?

John / Billybob

[RW1974]

I agree. GW has already had such an intense attack against him by the Dems and their media buddies that there's not much more they can do or say, just more of the same. Whereas the GOP has a whole arsenal that they can still deploy against Kerry.

[reformedliberal]

RCP has W's AVERAGE approval at 49. Spread is 1.3. He hasn't been at 41 since May & that was a CBS poll.

The trend is our friend.

Most of what I have read/heard today on the Iraq situation has been either *praise w/faint damns* or looking hard for the downside. Every Dem talking head was negative, as usual. They keep moving the goal posts, wringing their hands over this or that or discussing the *failed diplomacy* of a year ago.

I hit mute a lot, but sometimes I am working, have the sound on because I can't follow the CC and so, I have to listen to it. Doom 'n'gloom Johnny-one-notes, everyone.

[Owen]

Did someone track down the party mix of the sampling for this poll?

BTW, there is some merit for relying on registered voters rather than likely voters. 70% of registered voters vote. The label "likely" is an attempt to characterize who the 30% are, and the problem with that is pollsters use different definitions of "likely". Some call a respondent "likely" if they answer yes to the question, "Are you sure you are going to vote?" Others look back at the individual's history to determine in how many recent elections the individual voted.

Shrug.

[RightthinkinAmerican]

He does have a approximate 5% lead in any fairly conducted poll that I've seen. The lead will widen as the election approaches. We have truth on oue side and the Libs have thrown everything at Dubya but the sink, and he's gaining in the polls, yet the Republicans have yet to fire a real shot at Kerry. Bush is keeping his powder dry. Just wait till the first debate.

[conshack]

Even Zogby shows Bush ahead.



He's DEFINITELT ahead if Zogby says it. Zogby is a joke though.

[RightthinkinAmerican]

He's DEFINITELY ahead if Zogby says it.

Yep, I've slept well at night since I saw that.

Zogby is a joke though.

Agreed.

[conshack]

Of all polls, Zogby is the biggest joke of all. You need only listen to Zogby in an interview to know where his poll is headed.

[DrDeb]

Per usual, CBSNews overweighted both Democrats and Independents in its recent poll:

1053 Adults

303 (29%) Republicans
370 (35%) Democrats
380 (36%) Independents

Since most pundits now believe that Democrats and Republicans have reached parity, the fact that CBSNews is still giving Democrats a 7-8 point advantage in their polls is nothing short of agenda-driven partisanship! CAN WE ALL SAY MEDIA BIAS!!!!

[DrDeb]

Oops that should have read 28% Republicans NOT 29%!!!

1053 Adults

303 (28%) Republicans
370 (35%) Democrats
380 (36%) Independents

[POA2]

Exactly

The Dem's and Media (CBS,CNN and ABC) of which I have watched ...have all been pitiful in trying to find the negatives - just sad to watch - but I hope enough Americans are seeing through it -

Another freeper on here has the best tag line I've heard yet - and I really think the RNC should use it - I said it to my Mother-in-Law a few days ago - talking with her this afternoon she said "you know, what you said, it really rings true...I've noticed it lately" -

And that phrase is...

"GWB is sunshine....Kerry is Rain"

It is simple and to the point. And best of all very true!

Can't take credit for it, like I said a fellow freeper said at the end of one of his posts.

[Betaille]

Excellent work! where did you find that breakdown? This means about a 10 point lead for bush.

[DrDeb]

I'd post the link but my system keeps shutting down!

[FYI: go to the cbsnews website; click on poll; find the survey pdf file with the actual questions/responses!]

[ambrose]

See BS

[Kuksool]

CBS polls are Rather biased.