Posted on 06/28/2004 4:37:47 PM PDT by RW1974
"(CBS) Despite concerns about his handling of Iraq, and an overall approval rating of 42%, George W. Bush is still running neck and neck with Democrat John Kerry as the choice of registered voters. Growing public optimism about the nation’s economy has helped lift support for the President.
Kerry is the choice of 45% of registered voters, Bush the choice of 44%. This is a sharp turnaround for the Bush campaign in the span of just one month; in May, Kerry had opened up a wide 8-point lead over Bush. The race has been close since April."
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
This is my first time posting an article - hope I've done everything correctly.
And that's the key point, any poll that doesn't focus on likely voters isn't worth much. And I'd love to see the breakdown to find out whether they oversampled Democrats.
BTW, your first post looked excellent.
Does anyone know how they determine "likely" and "registered" voters?
"see the breakdown to find out whether they oversampled Democrats."
Absolutely... news outlets should demand to see the party breakdowns in these polls after the LA times scandal.
I wouldn't worry about the numbers right now. I don't know why people (the media) makes such a big deal out of the poll data now, it doesn't mean anything. The election is months away. I'd worry if Bush's rating dropped really low around election time, but hopefully, people will realize Kerry is a, as Senator Zell Miller (D- Ga) put it, "an ultra-liberal from Taxachussetts"
I would place my bet on "registered" voters before likely voters. "likely" might not get registered. But a CBS poll... not even a threat.
I bet it pained GungaDan to have to report that Bush was doing this well in his poll...it wasn't supposed to be like this...
Polls are like crack for political junkies. We know they're not good for us, but we just can't help ourselves. ;)
Kerry Powers ahead of Bush
Add 4% bias toward Dems for "registered" voters inastead of "likely" and Bush is up by 3%. They have no intention of being fair, and are fully aware of the benefit Dims get from using registered voters. Then, oversample Dims in the poll and you've got the results you wanted to manufacture.
If the best CBS can do is a 1 point Kerry lead amongst RV, he must really be struggling. My guess was that they would manufacture a poll to show him up by double digits.
Another Dan Rather approved, SEEBS poll.
First of all, I don't trust anything about the NYT.
Secondly, please note that this is REGISTERED voters, not LIKELY voters. It makes a difference.
Right, and when Bush is ahead by 1, the headline reads BUSH AND KERRY IN STATISTICAL TIE. ;)
Ah, thanks for the voice of reason in a poll-mad society.
Other polls from the last couple weeks also show Bush advancing. Fox had him going from about a tie to 7 points up among "likely" voters.
I believe "likely" ARE registered voters with a strong history of voting in elections, that's why they're considered more LIKELY to vote. It's a fact the using "likely" voters is more accurate and reliable.
Random calls. Real scientific stuff here.
The good news about this poll is that it confirms movement in W's direction. Even though the poll is likely weighted against him, he moved from 8 points down in the last CBS poll, to 1 point down now. That confirms the trend of other recent polls.
Even Zogby shows Bush ahead.
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