Electoral College Breakdown 2004, June 30th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 6/30/04

[goldstategop]

If John F*ckin' can't win W VA, its highly unlikely he'll be able to carry OH and PA. Losing a bellweather Democratic state would not be a good sign.

[goldstategop]

Jennifer Granholm is reasonably popular but like with Arnold Schwarzenegger in California not's being able to swing the state for Bush, the fact she's a Democrat will have no impact on how Michiganders feel about Kerry. In other words, voters don't necessarily vote for a presidential candidate based on their liking the state's governor. They evaluate national candidates by a different set of criteria.

[BigSkyFreeper]

While Kerry may be out of the limelight during the Olympics, I'll bet you we'll be enduring 2 weeks of "Hate America" rhetoric from the Olympics just like we had to endure during the Democratic primaries.

Bottomline, the Olympics won't help Kerry or the Democrats at all, in light of what shining accomplishments we've had with Bush.

[ken5050]

Did you notice that GRanholm is NOT speaking at the Dem convention?

[ken5050]

Re Florida, and the aberation that despite heavily trending GOP, it has TWO Dem senators......BOTH of whom served as governor...back when the state was solidly Dem..it's a name recognition thing...similar to Hollings winning in SC the last two times out....he probably couldn't win this year, which is why he retired..same a Graham in Florida...he would have lost..the Presidential run was an excuse to bail...

I want to postulate a new theory of politics.. The continual decline of the nymbers of Americans who vote is inversely proportional to to the increase in the number and frequency of polls.. If I am corect, and if the trend lines continue, tis means that by 2075, there will be 17 Americans left who will vote for Presdient, and there will be 35,768 polls taken hourly to try and track them..

[cajungirl]

Great post from you,,,please add me to your ping list. And where is the daily post of Rasmussen, I used to see it daily and haven't seen it lately?

[Coop]

The Ol' Dominion's rated only slightly in Dubya's favor.

So you're saying that a flip-flopping liberal senator from MA running against an incumbent Pubbie Prez has a better shot at taking VA than the Impeached Rapist - a supposedly centrist [cough] AR governor - who lost it twice while running for an open seat and then as an incumbent? :-D

I don't think so. I sincerely hope John F'in Kerry dumps a ton of money and time into our lovely state. He'll help our economy and waste resources that might have mattered elsewhere.

[Coop]

West Virginia will go to Kerry.

WV will go to Dubya.

[SLPAGE]

Please add me to the ping list as well

[BunnySlippers]

•

[jla]

So you're saying that a flip-flopping liberal senator from MA running against an incumbent Pubbie Prez has a better shot at taking VA than the Impeached Rapist...

Sounds to me that you could be working for the flip-flopping liberal's campaign with that kind of 'analysis' of my remarks, which FYI were directed to one particular person for a particular reason.

[Mudboy Slim]

"...a flip-flopping liberal senator from MA"

That there's what we need to focus on...the World is simply too dangerous a place right now to allow a DemonRAT to become POTUS again!! Viginia's voters will vote Right, just like we always do (at least since '68.)

FReegards...MUD

[Coop]

which FYI were directed to one particular person for a particular reason.

Pssst! It's a public forum. If you want to have a private discussion, use FReepmail.

Sounds to me that you could be working for the flip-flopping liberal's campaign with that kind of 'analysis' of my remarks,

This makes absolutely no sense at all. Suggest you clarify your remarks/analysis before worrying about mine (which I'm sure made sense to most objective readers, BTW).

[jla]

This makes absolutely no sense at all

It makes sense in that your interpretation of my prev remarks was inaccurate and erroneous. So if you want to somehow accuse me of siding with the Kerry Campaign I see that as a deliberate skewing of the facts...something the Left is well adept at doing.

[jla]

FYI: I happen to believe that W will get a min. of 400 EC votes, (and that number included VA's 13)

[Coop]

So if you want to somehow accuse me of siding with the Kerry Campaign

Physician, heal thyself!

[Coop]

Good for you. I happen to believe he'll win VA comfortably, but I'm not in the 400 EV camp (at least not yet).

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Kerry will definitely win Massachusetts, though. With the 3 electoral votes from DC, he will definitely do better than McGovern did in 1972."

---

If Kerry wins nothing but Massachusetts, DC and the 1 Portland-based CD in Maine, he will have 16 electoral votes, one less than McGovern did in 1972, since Massachusetts had 14 EVs back then and only 12 today (McGovern only carried MA and DC). But I think we can safely assume that, no matter what, Kerry will carry Rhode Island, which will give him more EVs than McGovern even if Bush wins all 4 EVs from Maine.

The fewest EVs for a major-party presidential nominee since the 1912 three-party election is 13 for Mondale in 1984 (he only carried DC's 3 EVs and Minnesota's 10 EVs, and actually was less than 5,000 votes away from losing in MN as well).

[91B]

What have you heard regarding the initiative in Colorado to divide the state's electoral votes according to a candidate's percentage of the state's popular vote?

I read about this in a recent edition of the Weekly Standard and if it gets on the ballot and passes, it could shift 4 or 5 electoral votes from the candidate that wins the state to the candidate that loses.

[HostileTerritory]

Bill Nelson never served as Governor. I don't think he ever ranked higher than Insurance Commissioner.

That said, his popularity is a holdover from the past and indicates nothing positive about the Florida Democrats' sad prospects.