Electoral College Breakdown 2004, June 30th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 6/30/04

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Yeah, But...

Ed Goeas is a Republican pollster with The Tarrance Group. Celinda Lake is a Democrat pollster with Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates. In election years, they collaborate on the Battleground Poll, which is now sponsored by George Washington University. The Battleground Poll is my personal favorite. In 1992 and 1996, it was the most accurate poll on the Presidential election. In 2000, they had a bit of an off year, coming up 3.5 points off-- still well within the margin of error (and since tracking polls that continued after the final Battleground 2000 Poll was released showed movement towards Gore, this is understandable; a poll is going to have a hard time measuring movement that occurs after it is taken). It is an impressive record.

That the poll has a respected expert associated with each party gives an extra level of confidence that nothing in the poll, from the script used to the sampling method to the likely voter model, is clouded by partisan bias. Further, the entire calling script and all of the collected data are made available for analysis. Simply put, there is a lot with the poll to like.

But the real treat with the Battleground Poll releases is the Republican strategic analysis by Ed Goeas and the Democratic Strategic Analysis by Celinda Lake. This year, each has done a bang-up job covering most of the interesting and truly revealing numbers in the poll. And as always, each has done so served with a healthy dose of spin. However, not all spin is equal, and theirs is the best kind; they use the truth honestly to paint an optimistic but realistic picture for their side. One does not find dishonesty in their essays.

That does not mean that either side's analysis should be taken at face value. As I read their work, a single phrase kept popping into my head repeatedly. As the title of this article may have given away, that phrase was "Yeah, but..."

Ed Goeas starts by looking at three indicators that over time have proven to be good predictors of which party will emerge victorious. The first is "Presidential job approval". He writes, "in modern presidential politics every incumbent president who had a job approval rating of fifty percent (50%) or better at this point of the campaign went on to win re-election in November." He presents a chart showing the last Gallup release for June in the previous four re-election campaigns:

Name	Date	Approval	Disapproval
Jimmy Carter	6/27-30/80	31%	58%
Ronald Reagan	6/30-7/2/84	53%	37%
George H.W. Bush	6/26-7/1/92	38%	55%
Bill Clinton	6/27-30/96	52%	42%

He then presents Battleground's numbers for this year, which show President Bush having a 51% approval rating (and a 48% disapproval rating). Yeah, but... that was in a Battleground poll, and it is being benchmarked to Gallup polls. The 6/21-23/04 Gallup poll has Bush's approval number at 48% (and a 49% disapproval). The two defeated Presidents had an average disapproval rating of 56.5%, and the two successfully re-elected had an average disapproval of 37.5%. George W. Bush's is right in between. However, it is true that the two defeated incumbents had significantly lower approval ratings.

The second indicator Mr. Goeas examines is the results to the question, "who would do a better job keeping America prosperous?" According to Mr. Goeas, the Democrats have never taken the White House unless they had a lead of seven-points or better on this measurement; currently President Bush has a one-point advantage over Senator Kerry. Yeah, but... Mr. Kerry did have that 7 point lead back in March, so it is very possible that come election day he will have recovered whatever ground he has lost if the perception of the economy sours.

The third indicator is the unaided ballot question; which candidate is named by a greater percentage of voters when no names are offered (so the interviewee must know the candidate's name). Bush holds a 1.8% lead in this measure. Yeah, but... that is well within the margin of error, and less than the advantage Bush had in March over Kerry, and over Gore almost all the way up to Election Day.

Mr. Goeas then turns his attention to the economy, and points to several measures indicating how the President's standing on these questions has started to improve. Mr. Goeas notes, "public perception about the economy is very slow to move-- generally it is assumed that both good economic news and bad economic news takes about six months to be factored into the people's vote equation." Yeah, but... what generally happens does not always happen. The economy really started picking up steam 8 months ago, and it has yet to factor into people's vote equation at the topline; already the impact that generally happens is two months behind schedule. It is possible that that this means that for 8 months hence, the numbers will move in the President's favor. It is also possible that the Democrats will find a way to forestall the impact, either by keeping the focus on Iraq or Abu Grahib.

Celinda Lake starts her analysis talking about how turnout is going to be key, and suggests that Kerry has an edge because 80% of Kerry's supporters are extremely likely to vote, as compared to 77% of President Bush's, according to the Battleground Poll. Yeah, but... given the margin of error, that is a statistically insignificant difference, and at this point in 2000 Bush had a significant advantage over Gore yet lost the popular vote. Further, the Democrats' lead in voter self-identification has disappeared, which suggests that the idea of a turnout-primed Democratic machine may be a bit of a stretch.

Ms. Lake then proceeds to talk about how no Presidential incumbent with a job approval rating so low has gone on to win re-election. Yeah, but... the very same point she makes can be said in the exact opposite direction. No President with a job approval rating so high has gone on to lose re-election. Those who have lost have had a lower approval rating by 10 points at this stage.

Ms. Lake also makes several points about independents, which is the group she claims will decide the election ("independent voters... will determine the outcome of this election). Yeah, but... earlier she claimed that turnout would be the key. But that is a minor quibble. She stresses many metrics involving these independent voters, mentioning how in the survey Kerry leads among them by 8 points, how his net job approval rating is slightly negative among them, and how by a 15% margin they want to see someone new get a chance to be President. Yeah, but... the poll shows that only 15% of the sample self-identifies as independents. In a sample of 1000 likely voters, that means a sub sample of independents of about 150. That works out to an approximate margin of error of +/-8%, meaning that all of the margins and gaps she mentions for independents are well within the margin of error for that sub sample.

Ms. Lake mentions how Republicans seem out of step with Democrats and independents on the state of the economy. "In fact, aside from Republicans, a solid majority of every subgroup of voters is negative about the state of the economy." She notes that voters who rate the economy as "fair" support Kerry by a margin of 27 points, and those who rate it as "poor" support him by a margin of 72%. Yeah, but... despite that, Kerry is just running even with the President. More importantly, the percentage of voters who rate the economy as poor dropped 8 points from the March Battleground poll, as did the percentage of voters who rate it as fair. If that trend continues it will be hard for Kerry to keep his standing.

Ms. Lake points out that the number one economic concern for voters is jobs, with 62% of voters saying jobs and unemployment are their top concerns about the economy. Mr. Goeas points out that this is in line with the percentage that said last November that jobs would be their main criteria for judging the economy. Yeah, but... the economy has been adding jobs at an impressive rate. Is it really good news for Kerry that voters say their primary economic concern is something that is improving?

As would be expected for a poll showing the race tied, conducted by a bipartisan tandem, and accompanied by dueling partisan write-ups, there is something for everyone in the Battleground Poll. It is ironic that the party associated with conservatism, the Republicans, would benefit from change (in voters' perception of the state of the economy), while the party identified with progressivism, the Democrats, needs to fight against such change and maintain the status quo, and then some. Either way, the Democrats remain in the unenviable position of having to hope for bad things to happen- things that are out of their control.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Indiana, Connecticut, and Florida all produced results that were similar to what one would expect for them. Arizona, Oklahoma, Maine, and Wisconsin all showed some better results for the President. This could be an indication that the race is starting to move, but it is too soon to tell. Despite this, in the ECB Classic view this week benefitted Kerry as some of the more Bush-favorable Zogby Interactive polls were superceded. In an interesting development, the calculated popular result declined for both candidates, continuing a three week trend; could it be that more people are becoming undecided?

The battlegrounds:

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Lean
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Tossup
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Tossup
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Tossup
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Tossup
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Virginia	Bush +8	No	Bush, Slight
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean
Arizona	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean
Missouri	Bush +3	Yes	Bush, Lean

The scoreboard:

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Bush 203, Kerry 200	Bush 259, Kerry 209
ECB Classic	Kerry 221, Bush 188	Bush 269, Kerry 269
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Bush 230, Kerry 220	Bush 282, Kerry 252
Calculated National Result	Bush 44.9%, Kerry 43.8%

For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:

ECB	Bush unchanged, Kerry unchanged	Bush +10, Kerry -17
ECB Classic	Bush -26, Kerry -15	Bush -16, Kerry +16
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Bush +4, Kerry +16	With tossups: Bush +11, Kerry -11
Calculated National Result	Bush -0.3%, Kerry -0.4%

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	F		Ohio
			Electoral Votes: 20
			2000 Result
			Bush 50%
			Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.1%	Bush	44.8%	Kerry	49.4%	Kerry +4.6
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.1%	Bush	49.1%	Kerry	46.3%	Kerry +2.8
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	722 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +3
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.5%	Bush	50.5%	Kerry	45.1%	Bush +5.4%
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	41%	Bush +4

* Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of respondants, and as such are highly suspect. They are considered extremely little (if at all) within the ECB.

Punditry: Right back to Tossup with the conflicting polls.

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	F		Oklahoma
			Electoral Votes: 7
			2000 Result
			Bush 60%
			Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/1/04	Wilson Research	NA	300 RV	5.7%	Bush	50%	Kerry	40%	Bush +10
4/1/04	Insider Advantage	Link	400 Residents	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Wilson Research	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	34%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	58%	Kerry	34%	Bush +24
6/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	651 LV	4%	Bush	60%	Kerry	34%	Bush +26

Punditry: It was not all that long ago that Oklahoma was showing signs of being competitive. If that was just a pair of funky polls or if it was real, it no longer appears that there is any chance of Oklahoma being anything but a rout.

SurveyUSA, in their writeups, usually shows the results for both certain voters and probable voters, with them combined to make likely voters. Bush gets 10% more support from certain voters than from probable voters.

Safe for Bush.

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	F		Michigan
			Electoral Votes: 17
			2000 Result
			Gore 51%
			Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Mitchell	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Mitchell	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41.2%	Kerry	49.5%	Kerry +8.3
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.6%	Bush	45.1%	Kerry	49.1%	Kerry +4.0
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.2%	Bush	46.8%	Kerry	46.1%	Bush +0.7%
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2

* Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of respondants, and as such are highly suspect. They are considered extremely little (if at all) within the ECB.

Punditry: Also playing into my thinking are some of the Rasmussen premium numbers. Michigan is polling extremely tightly, fluctuating around the dead-even mark. Tossup.

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	F		Pennsylvania
			Electoral Votes: 21
			2000 Result
			Gore 51%
			Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3%	Bush	42.6%	Kerry	50.8%	Kerry +8.2
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.6%	Bush	44.9%	Kerry	51.5%	Kerry +5.6
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	44.7%	Kerry	51.7%	Kerry +7.0%
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5

* Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of respondants, and as such are highly suspect. They are considered extremely little (if at all) within the ECB.

Punditry: Also playing into my thinking are some Rasmussen premium numbers. The picture in Pennsylvania is fuzzy, with the center point being a tie. Tossup.

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	F		Wisconsin
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Gore 47.83%
			Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	43.7%	Kerry	51.9%	Kerry +8.2
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.9%	Bush	44.5%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +5.9
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	694 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.0%	Bush	46.2%	Kerry	50.6%	Kerry +4.4%
6/23/04	Badger Poll	Link	504 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4

* Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of respondants, and as such are highly suspect. They are considered extremely little (if at all) within the ECB.

Punditry: Interesting writeup by the Journal-Sentinel:

In key respects, the race is almost exactly where it was three months ago.

In a Badger Poll done March 23-31, 46% of Wisconsin adults thought President Bush was doing a good or excellent job.

Today it's 47%.

Back then, 45% said they would like to see Bush re-elected.

Today it's 43%.

Back then, 52% had a favorable impression of Bush, 41% unfavorable.

Today it's 52% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

Back then, 37% had a favorable impression of John Kerry, 34% unfavorable.

Today it's 36% favorable, 36% unfavorable.

Back then, in a three-way matchup, Bush had a small lead over Kerry - 47% to 41% - with independent Ralph Nader at 5%.

The new poll, of 504 voting-age adults surveyed June 15-23, is almost identical: Bush 46%, Kerry 42%, Nader 5%. That lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Why is this interesting? Because it totally ignores the fact that the March 23-31 survey was not the most recent Badger Poll. Either that one was an outlier, as many believed, or the story is that Bush had grabbed a big lead that has shrunk back. I think they went with the right story, and that poll was an outlier. Either way, this confirms the L.A. Times poll that suggested that Bush has improved his standing in Wisconsin (the Gore state that Larry Sabato says is the one most likely to go to Bush this time). Slight Advantage for Bush.

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	Colorado
	Electoral Votes: 9
	2000 Result
	Bush 51%
	Gore 42%

Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8-10/03	Colorado Democratic Party	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +7
12/15-16/03	Public Opinion Strategies	NA	LV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +10
3/16/04	McLauglin & Associates (R)	NA	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
4/2/04	Public Opinion Strategies	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	40%	Bush +9
4/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
6/18/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5

Punditry: A five point lead in a registered voter poll suggests that Colorado, despite some media play, has not really moved since 2000 and remains Leaning Towards Bush.

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	F		Mississippi
			Electoral Votes: 6
			2000 Result
			Bush 58%
			Gore 41%

Background: Mississippi is a southern state first, second, and last. JFK finished behind Henry Byrd here. George Wallace won the state by more than a 2-1 margin over the second place finisher. The only Democrat to win since 1956? Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford-- and Carter came very close to beating Reagan here. But as the Democrats have moved left, Mississippi has been willing to cast votes for Yankee Republicans, as Clinton lost both times here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
12/22/03	Associated Press	Link	RV	4%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +20
4/21/04	Mississippi State University	Link	300 LV	5.8%	Bush	61.2%	Kerry	30.0%	Bush +31.2%

Punditry: It is a huge margin of error, and it is already slightly dated, but even with those factors it reinforces the obvious: Bush is going to win Mississippi. Safe for Bush.

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	Indiana
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Bush 57%
	Gore 41%

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	525 RV	4.2%	Bush	51%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +6
3/24/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	600 LV	4.0%	Bush	52%	Kerry	37%	Bush +15
5/19/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	540 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Kerry	33%	Bush +21
6/21/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	36%	Bush +16

Punditry: Essentially unchanged from the March Bellwether poll. When the results are limited to those who are certain about who they will vote, the results are even more stark: Bush 44%, Kerry 27%. Also notable in this poll: Mitch Daniels has opened up a 5 point lead over Joe Kernan. Safe for Bush.

Thanks again to BlackRazor who has been making my job here incredibly easy.

---

Electoral Votes: 27

2000 Result

Bush 48.85%

Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	47.6%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1.4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.9%	Bush	47.9%	Kerry	49.5%	Kerry +1.6
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.6%	Bush	50.3%	Kerry	46.1%	Bush +4.2%
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push

* Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of respondants, and as such are highly suspect. They are considered extremely little (if at all) within the ECB.

Punditry: An argument could be made for designating Florida a tossup at this point on the basis of this poll. However, the Quinnipiac poll is of registered voters, and registered voter polls generally understate the Republican performance by a few points, due to the fact that the groups that are least likely to turn out on election day (the poor, the young, and minorities) tend to be Democrat supporting groups. This is especially true in Florida, a state with 300,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans yet only three times since 1948 has gone Democrat (Johnson, Carter, and the 2nd Clinton term). I know the readers here who support Kerry are not going to like this call, but Florida remains a Slight Advantage for Bush. That said, it sure looks to me like something was not quite right with the Fox Opinion Dynamics poll.

Addendum: If one uses the percentages for each partisan designation and treats them as independent strata, and then weighs the strata by the registration percentages in Florida (42% Democrat, 38% Republican), the result is a tie in the two-way race, 46-46. If one assumes the party representation shown by the 2000 Florida exit poll (40% Democrat, 38% Republican) then Bush has a 1-2 point lead.

---

	Arizona
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Bush 51%
	Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	37%	Bush +8
5/23/04	Arizona State University	Link	377 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	38%	Bush +5
6/13/04	Market Solutions	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	41%	Bush +3
6/27/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12

Punditry: Is this poll an outlier, or has the President opened up a comfortable lead in Arizona? And if the latter, is it just a result of McCain coming out more forcefully for the President (and ending the flirtation with the Kerry campaign), or is it indicative of a more widespread trend? It is too soon to tell on these questions. However, what can be told is that the series of poll releases in Arizona have all been favorable to the President, with a handful approaching double digits. Arizona solidly is Leaning Towards Bush at this juncture.

---

	F		Connecticut
			Electoral Votes: 7
			2000 Result
			Gore 56%
			Bush 38%

Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/11/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
7/31/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
2/26/04	University of Connecticut	Link	448 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13
3/28/04	University of Connecticut	Link	RV	4%	Bush	33%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +19
4/27/04	University of Connecticut	Link	501 RV	4%	Bush	33%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +18
6/1/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,035 RV	3%	Bush	36%	Kerry	46%	Dem +10%
6/28/04	Quinnipiac	Link	929 RV	3%	Bush	32%	Kerry	50%	Dem +18%

Punditry: I've seen all I can stands, I can't stands no more. It does not look like Connecticut wants to break the 20 point margin in the polls, but it is coming close enough often enough that I am throwing it over the fence to the Safe for Kerry designation.

Think Connecticut voters were glad to get rid of former Governor Rowland? "By a 76 – 4 percent margin, with 21 percent undecided, Connecticut voters believe incoming Gov. Jodi Rell will be able to govern effectively, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Even Democrats say 71 – 5 percent that she can govern effectively."

---

	F		Maine
			Electoral Votes: 4
			2000 Result
			Gore 49%
			Bush 44%

Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.

Maine is currently a slight advantage for Democrats, which is a change from ECB 2000 where it started as a slight Bush advantage. While the Republicans hold both Senate seats, everything else is in the hands of the Democrats, who enjoy a 31%-29% registration lead.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +11
9/12-26/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +9
3/3/04	Omnibus Poll/Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5.0%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
5/20/04	Critical Insights	Link	552 RV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	35%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +19
6/12/04	Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	41.0%	Kerry	43.5%	Kerry +2.5

Punditry: Something is afoot in Maine. This is not the only indication I have of significant movement towards Bush in Maine, even if it is the only one which I can publish. I was tempted to move this all the way to slight advantage for Kerry, but what can I say-- I am conservative not only in ideology but in temperment and will move it to Leaning Towards Kerry, with a hunch that there is about a 50% chance in the next two weeks it will be moved to the closer designation.

In this poll, the two were tied at 35.5% before leaners were added to the mix.

---

Effective National Popular Results: Bush 44.9%, Kerry 43.8%

Kerry E					F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	CA (55) K49-B41 5/31/04	NH (4) K46-B46 6/9/04	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	VA (13) B47-K45 5/31/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04	AK (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	WA (11) K45-B44 K46-B42 6/11/04	WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04	OR (7) B46-K45 5/31/04	AR (6) B48-K43 5/31/04	MO (11) B48-K37 6/8/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
MA (12) K58-B33 5/31/04	IL (21) K52-B39 6/9/04	IA (7) K49-B41 5/31/04	-	OH (20) B45-K41 K49-B43 6/23/04	WI (10) B46-K42 6/23/04	NC (15) B47-K42 6/16/04	LA (9) B48-K42 5/31/04	NE (5)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	MD (10) K52-B38 6/9/04	MN (10) K46.5-B42.2 6/14/04	-	MI (17) B42-K40 6/23/04	FL (27) B43-K43* 6/27/04	TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04	GA (15) B49-K32 6/2/04	WY (3)
NY (31) K52-B34 6/14/04	-	NJ (15) K46-B40 6/20/04	-	PA (21) B46-K41 6/23/04	-	CO (9) B48-K43* 6/18/04	SC (8) B49-K39 5/31/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04	-	ME (4) K43.5-B41.0* 6/12/04	-	-	-	AZ (10) B47-K35* 6/27/04	KY (8) B52-K39 6/8/04	MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B57-K36 5/31/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K38 5/31/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B52-K36 6/21/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B60-K34 6/23/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
61	37	102	9	70	56	61	49	93
200			135			203

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.

Discuss ECB2004 On Free Republic

[Dales]

ping

[jla]

The Ol' Dominion's rated only slightly in Dubya's favor.

[ambrose]

Maine splits by congressional districts. There is a good chance this could happen this year.

[AntiGuv]

I liked the trivia questions you used to post.. =(

[NautiNurse]

Was polled this evening. Likely voter questions--but also asked what I thought about Willie Clinton. The lowest spot on the scale wasn't low enough. Same for Kerry.

Asked about election with and without Nader. btw, gave Nader a neutral position.

[Corin Stormhands]

The Ol' Dominion's rated only slightly in Dubya's favor.

We've been over that. Don't make me turn this thread around...

[Dales]

:-)

I'll start them up as soon as the current project I am on is over. I usually have more free time than I have lately.

[So Cal Rocket]

If I ever get polled, I'm going to say I'm a Republican voting for Nader.

[demlosers]

Kerry should be slamming the panic button about now.

[FairOpinion]

Would you please add me to your ping list.

Thanks.

This is a very comprehensive analysis.

Looks like it's going to be a real nailbiter. I just hope it comes out for Bush in the end -- without having to go through what we did in 2000.

[comebacknewt]

To me, I think Ohio is the key. If we win there, we probably also pull in WV.

That makes it very tough to imagine a scenario where JFnK triumphs in the electoral college.

[Vigilanteman]

Agreed. Kerry has a lock on the urban district on the coast. The rural district (and even the state's remaining 2 EV's) are in play. Kerry will definitely win Massachusetts, though. With the 3 electoral votes from DC, he will definitely do better than McGovern did in 1972.

[Sonar5]

Great Info, please add me to your ping list.

Thanks,
Joe

[narses]

Please add me as well.

[Mudboy Slim]

"The Ol' Dominion's rated only slightly in Dubya's favor."

That's a joke...we must begin our voter registration efforts in earnest...MUD

[NautiNurse]

I'll remember that next time. Good idea.

[Mudboy Slim]

"Don't make me turn this thread around..."

Give 'em the facts, Jack...we're educatin' a new bunch with every new thread...MUD

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Good timing, I was just over at your site looking at the new polling data. I'll repeat my question from over there, about the reliability of Quinnipiac. Their latest polls are in CT and FL, and the CT struck me as odd being that they are showing a +8 shift to Kerry since June 1, over a time frame that almost every other poll out there has been showing moves to Bush.

How reliable are they? I guess I shouldn't be surprised to see them showing Kerry ahead in FL, though I think someone needs to remind them that Joe Lieberman is not on the ticket this year.

Lastly, a possible scenario has appeared that shows that Kerry can win MI, PA, and OH, and still lose the election if Bush picks up NM and OR. Not likely but that it is entirely possible is a good sign for Bush, methinks. I doubt he will lose all 3 of those midwest battlegrounds, though.

[Lunatic Fringe]

Forget West Virginia. That place is a democrat stronghold, and I am AMAZED it went to Bush last year. Probably as a result of the good economy and Clinton fatigue. West Virginia will go to Kerry.

Ohio/Pennsylvania/Florida

The winner will have to pull 2 of these 3.