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i just got this in an email from GeorgeWBush.com TO: BC '04 CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP FROM: MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF STRATEGIST RE: EXPECTED KERRY BOUNCE As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August. An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. As the below chart illustrates: 1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat. 2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce[1]" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August. Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up."

Trying this again

From: "GeorgeWBush.com"
To: "------------------
Subject: Campaign Memo: Expected Kerry Bounce
Date: Monday, July 05, 2004 2:25 PM

TO: BC '04 CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP
FROM: MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF STRATEGIST
RE: EXPECTED KERRY BOUNCE

As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.

An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention.

As this chart illustrates:
http://www.georgewbush.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=2893

1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat.
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce[1]" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.

Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up." ******************************************************
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