Posted on 07/10/2004 8:05:48 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Moscow weighs price of Korean peace
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - Despite having been sidelined in the wrangling over Pyongyang's nuclear program, Russia is still keen to demonstrate that it has sufficient influence to play a role, and reap some rewards in the bargain.
After Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met North Korea's top leader Kim Jong-il on Sunday, Moscow's chief diplomat announced that his talks were cause for optimism for the next round of six-way talks in Beijing on North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Lavrov claimed that there was a general consensus that the positive momentum set in motion after the third round of talks in June would lead to "quite concrete results" during the next round scheduled for before the end of September.
To date, the two Koreas, the United States, Russia, Japan and China have met for three rounds of talks that have been dogged by mutual mistrust and have made little progress.
The Dear Leader reportedly conveyed his thanks to Russia for its recent food aid, 35,000 tons of grain supplied through the World Food Program. Lavrov also conveyed a personal letter from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Kim, and afterward commented: "We considered questions of a three-sided settlement on the Korean Peninsula with the participation of Russia and the two Koreas," Tass quoted Lavrov as saying in Pyongyang.
Lavrov also reiterated Moscow's support for North Korea's proposal of freezing its nuclear program in exchange for compensation, such as energy supplies and economic aid. Moreover, Lavrov also suggested goodwill gestures toward Pyongyang, indicating that Washington should consider exclusion of North Korea from its list of countries supporting international terrorism.
It is understood that since last summer, Russia has been trying to advise Pyongyang against adopting a hardline stance, but without obvious success. However, North Korea demanded that an effective non-aggression treaty should be signed with the US, and that Washington should give up what is viewed in Pyongyang as its "hostile policy" toward North Korea.
It has been reported that in May 2003 Kim sent Putin a letter seeking his help in breaking the stalemate with the US. Putin has developed close relations with Kim, receiving the reclusive leader twice in recent years.
Some reports say that Moscow planned to host a summit between the two Koreas in its Far East during South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun's visit expected in September. Others have said Putin himself would meet Kim at a summit in the Russian Far East port city of Vladivostok - a report flatly denied by Lavrov. "Such a meeting is not planned at all," Tass quoted him as saying. The Russian Foreign Ministry gave no details of Putin's message to Kim beyond saying it dealt with issues of bilateral cooperation and regional security.
The Kremlin has repeatedly offered to mediate in the Korean standoff and play host to "any meetings and talks to help in any form so as to normalize the situation". But last year Russia was sidelined when North Korea, the US and China held talks in Beijing without inviting Russia. This was explained as a consequence of Moscow's unsuccessful mediation attempts in January 2003.
The North Korean nuclear standoff began in October 2002 when US officials said Pyongyang had admitted to running secret nuclear-weapons programs in violation of international non-proliferation agreements.
Russia is North Korea's neighbor thanks to a narrow border near Vladivostok. The Soviet Union was Pyongyang's close ally during the 1950-53 Korean War, but ties between Moscow and Pyongyang had been in decline ever since the 1991 Soviet collapse, until Putin started to work his charm.
The two countries have now signed a new bilateral treaty to replace an outmoded Soviet-era accord in place since 1961. However, bilateral trade turnover has been below US$100 million for the past few years. The decline has been blamed mainly on North Korea's economic crisis and its unpaid debts to Russia.
The last time Russia tried its hand at negotiating a strategic agreement with Kim, in 2000, it was a flop. Moscow announced it had persuaded North Korea to give up its ballistic-rocket program in exchange for Russia's launching of civilian satellites into space. But it turned out that it was a ploy by Kim. Hence it remains to be seen whether Russia's claims of Pyongyang's willingness to accept the plan to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for compensation are based in reality.
Some Russian officials suggest giving energy supplies to North Korea as reward for it freezing its nuclear program. For instance, Valery Yazev, the chairman of the state duma's (lower house of parliament) committee for energy, transport and communications, told journalists on Tuesday that "Russian gas supplies could become a priority" for international efforts to freeze North Korea's nuclear program.
Yazev, who is also president of the Russian Gas Society, said there are two projects for gas supplies to North Korea. The first runs from Sakhalin through a 2,400-kilometer, $5 billion pipeline. The second project envisages supplies from the giant Kovykta gas field in eastern Siberia, with an estimated 2 trillion cubic meters of reserves. Yazev said the Kovykta project could be approved this year.
Neither project has been approved, but Yazev claims that they could be implemented in three or four years if a decision is made by the end of this year. However, Yazev made it clear that the projects depend on how "compensation" would be funded, otherwise Russia's gas exporters would see no reason to join. In other words, Russia would prefer to be paid by the international community for gas supplies to North Korea.
So the plan goes like this: North Korea, for stopping its nuclear program, is rewarded by the West with energy, which is supplied and transported by Russia, and for which Moscow is paid in hard cash.
No wonder, then, that Putin wants to be involved.
Ping!
"The Dear Leader reportedly conveyed his thanks to Russia for its recent food aid, 35,000 tons of grain..."
Which will be stored in warehouses and doled out to the military.
No doubt. Or resell it to outsiders at market price. That has happened before.
Or someone could just kill "Dear Leader" and then the Korean people and the world can move on.
The South Koreans can pay. But I don't think they want a crazy NK regime controlling the valve.
Nope. You'd also have to kill off the military leadership and various higher ups in the party. Hard to say whether the NK's would be as good a guerilla warfare as Hussein's loyalists.
Maybe. But NK would make its money on the passage of gas. If they close the valve, it costs them the money they don't get paid for the gas they didn't deliver. Not to mention getting Russia mad at them, who also would be making money on gas delivered, and consequently losing money on gas not delivered.
Nope. It is the military leadership and higher ups in the party that are the primary candidates to kill "Dear Leader."
Certainly, but that wouldn't make North Korea free by a long shot.
It would be wonderful if North Korea were "free." But that is not the point. The point is that Nutball of the North must be removed because he is a dangerous nuclear armed kook. He has to go. Beyond that, the fate of the Korean people is an issue for the Korean people.
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