Posted on 07/27/2004 4:32:14 PM PDT by Sockdologer
BOSTON - With a "Kerry-Edwards" placard in her lap, three Democratic Party pins on her jacket and a Louisiana delegation sign swaying above her head, Cynthia Morrell is the picture of Democratic unity. But don't get her started about the campaign's decision to pull ads from her state.
"A state like mine can't just be tossed away," she says from her front-row floor seat at the Democratic Convention. "We have a good chance of winning if they take us seriously."
Kerry has eliminated or reduced his ad campaign in Louisiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Missouri and other states to meet needs elsewhere, and otherwise supportive convention delegates are wondering why.
"It disappoints me and worries me," said Jimmie Lou Fisher of Arkansas, where Kerry no longer airs ads.
Kerry aides are working overtime to assure delegates like Fisher, the party's failed 2002 gubernatorial nominee, that ad money will flow back to the scaled-down states after this week's convention.
They insist Kerry is committed to these GOP-leaning states, part of an aggressive strategy to force President Bush (news - web sites) to defend his political turf with money that would otherwise pour into Ohio, Florida and other tossup states.
But that strategy is constantly adjusted as political winds shift. Headed into the convention, Kerry and his advisers decided to shift money from some states to meet new needs in others, starting with an infusion for North Carolina.
Adding the state's senior senator, John Edwards (news - web sites), to the ticket put North Carolina in play for November, but there was no ad budget. Kerry re-routed $1.4 million to North Carolina for pre-convention ads, according to several officials familiar with his ad purchasing. They spoke on condition of anonymity because such details are usually tightly guarded to limit Bush's knowledge of Democratic strategy.
In addition, Kerry's polling showed that Bush was closer than Democrats would like him to be in Michigan and New Hampshire. The Great Lakes state got a $200,000 bump in ad spending. New Hampshire's ad budget is up $100,000 for July.
On the other hand, Kerry's polling showed Republican-leaning Colorado to be in better shape for Democrats than expected. Hoping to build momentum, Kerry increased his spending by $200,000 in Colorado.
All that money had to come from somewhere.
He saved more than $1 million by pulling ads from Louisiana and Arkansas, officials said. Ads are still airing in Virginia, but spending is down about $500,000. Missouri, a traditional battleground, lost about $400,000 in Kerry ads.
Since those decisions, Kerry's advisers say they've been pleasantly surprised by his rebound in Missouri polls and may restore the ad budget — an example of how battleground strategies shift from week to week.
Kerry also reduced ad spending in Maine, Oregon and Minnesota. But those decisions were based on confidence rather than concern — internal polls gave Kerry reason to believe he was doing well enough against Bush to risk moving money away.
"This is an ever-shifting strategy," said Kerry spokeswoman Debra DeShong. "We will be up on the air in some places sometimes and not up in some places sometimes."
Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia said he has no problem with Kerry's strategy.
"The fact is the campaign is still in Virginia. Ads are still running. Heck, they're running more ads than Al Gore (news - web sites) or anybody did in 2000," the governor said. "We may not be in the top 15 or 16 states" on Kerry's target list, "but we're in that second tier."
Kerry has visited Virginia seven times as a candidate, Arkansas six, Louisiana and Missouri five. He's not likely to abandon that investment this early, delegates said.
"It surprises me, stuns me" that Kerry pulled his ads, said Richard Lee of Louisiana. Moments later, the state party's executive director, Derek Wooley, pulled Lee aside and explained Kerry's strategy.
"The groundwork has been laid in Louisiana," Wooley assured Lee on the convention floor. "He wanted to spend more money in places that needed to know more about Edwards. He has not given up on Louisiana. Kerry will win our state."
Lee nodded his head.
Ben Jeffers, chairman of the state party in 2000, recalled with a grimace that Gore pulled out of Louisiana for good in September of 2000. He doesn't expect that to happen again, but won't take anything for granted.
"They say that they're going to keep targeting us," Jeffers said of the Kerry campaign. "But, yes, I'm staying on their case."
___
Associated Press writer Liz Sidoti contributed to this story.
Here's another classic line from the Kerry campaign ;) You can't make these things up.
I dont know i think the DNC Strategy is horrible, with 2 of the biggest liberals in the senate on the ticket the DNC is not even trying to reach out to the moderate/indpenedents. The RNC will have a lot of moderates in primetime like Arnold, Zell miller, Arizona Senator Mccain.
Some states just do not qualify as "battleground" states. But by NOT pulling back all the funding for radio and TV ads in Louisiana, California could suddenly become a "battleground" state. One that Kerry has to protect at all costs.
Kerry has to go hunting where the ducks are.
Wouldn't that be a hoot, if California DID shift columns?
I seriously doubt that the Kerry campaign gurus have ever heard the expression: "You can rub and rub all day long, and you still will not be able to polish a turd".
I don't think I've heard that one either :P But I must admit it's rather fitting.
I'm keeping track of them on my home page: hobson
< snip >
"The groundwork has been laid in Louisiana," Wooley assured Lee on the convention floor. "He wanted to spend more money in places that needed to know more about Edwards."
So were the funds taken away to sell Edwards to North Carolinians or am I missing something here? North Carolinians already know John Edwards and the poll results were that Edwards was not only "known" but "hell, known".
This is great news that they are wasting their time with Virginia and North Carolina. Both will be going for Bush. I'm far more worried about Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana.
Don't be. Bush will take all three. And, he'll take Colorado and Ohio, too.
Follow the money, ignore the bullshit from the campaign.
Agree about north carolina. They should spend all the money they can there.
People there know john edwards, and that's why he wasn't going to run for re-election, and also why the two johns are trailing in the polls.
Agree about north carolina. They should spend all the money they can there.
People there know john edwards, and that's why he wasn't going to run for re-election, and also why the two johns are trailing in the polls.
What this tells me is that the campaign can easily get rattled with flucuations.
Ads up - Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, New Hampshire
Michigan is a very tough state for anyone to win. It's usually within 5% either way. It votes economic issues first and the economy is turning around some which is bad news for him. Detroit's vote share is shrinking, and that's also bad news.
Colorado is close. Bush got 50.85% last time, Gore 42.47% with 5.26% going to Nader. Libertarians get a lot of votes here too.
He's in trouble in New Hampshire? North Carolina is IMO a bad investment. Edwards was about to lose the senate spot, and Bush won here last time with 56.09%.
Ads Down(Struggling) - Louisiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Missouri
If there are two Southern States I would make a run for it is Arkansas and Louisiana with all the yellow dogs there. Virginia I expect to be tougher and tougher for the GOP with the beltway area gaining population. Missouri usually picks the winner so that's an area not to abandon. That's good news for Bush.
Ads Down based on good numbers - Maine, Oregon and Minnesota.
Maine I expect. Minnesota is a tough state to predict as is Oregon.
Arkansas scares me the most.
Does it really matter where they spend their money. The media is carrying Kerry's water. And down the stretch the Republicans will be muzzled thanks to McStain.
Occasionally when one engages in "Doublespeak" someone will notice that the same point has been made twice.
I'm very worried about Ohio. Gore called it a lost cause in 2002 and quit campaigning there a few weeks before the election, and then it turned out very close. All you hear about from the liberal media these days when they mention Ohio is how many manufacturing jobs have been lost. I think Ohio is going to be a dog-fight to the very end, and I'll be VERY happy if W pulls it out.
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